XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 5 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading below the high · RSI 41 · price 4,088.91
Lower highs off 4146.92, testing rising support.
After NY-session spikes capped near 3970 on Monday and Tuesday, gold broke higher in Wednesday's Asia session on the Democratic midterm sweep and the drop in yields, reclaimed 4000, and printed a week high of 4146.92 early Thursday. Since then the chart has carved lower highs, and the NY-session slide to a 4076.32 session low came as the USD and yields bounced. The 4128.06 lower high marked the rebound top, and price now closes below EMA(20) near 4112 with RSI(14) near 41, sitting on rising support from Wednesday's lows and just under the 23.6% retracement of the 3919.95–4146.92 impulse.
Support: 4,076.32, 4,060.20, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,112.00, 4,128.06, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4076.32 session low and rising support exposes the fib 38.2 at 4060.20
Failure at 4060 brings the 4000 round number back as the week's pivot
Reclaim of ema20 near 4112, then the 4128.06 lower high, would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Close above the 4146.92 week high resumes the impulse
Fed's Williams 09:30 UTC and NFP 13:30 UTC Friday (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
22:07 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading below the week high · RSI 50 · price 4,088.91
Lower highs since Thursday's Asia peak; higher-low line under test.
The Democratic midterm sweep and weaker USD and yields drove Wednesday's impulse from the 3920 base through the 4000 round number. The move extended in Thursday's Asia session to a 4146.9 week high, and highs have been lower since. In the NY session today gold swung from a 4076.3 Thu low back to a 4128.1 NY high as the NASDAQ slid, then faded back below EMA(20) near 4103. Price now sits on rising support from Wednesday's 4029 low and the 23.6% retracement of the impulse fib, with RSI(14) reset from 85+ to about 50 and EMA(50) near 4063 underneath.
Support: 4,076.30, 4,057.80, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,103.30, 4,128.10, 4,146.90
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) with AHE and unemployment could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 4076.3 Thu low breaks rising support and the higher-low sequence, exposing the 4057.8 Wed low and the 38.2% fib near 4051
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 4128.1 NY high would put the 4146.9 week high back in focus
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC Fri on December hike pricing ahead of payrolls
Loss of the 4000 round number would undo most of Wednesday's impulse
Impulse leg from 3,920 into a 4,076–4,147 range, lower high at 4,128.
Gold ran from Wednesday's 3,920 low to a 4,146.92 week high, with both impulse legs printed in the Asia session as the post-midterm USD drop and lower yields fed the move. Thursday has been a range. The NY dip on mixed US data found the ny low at 4,076 and was bought back, but the rebound stalled at a 4,128 lower high. Price now sits below the EMA(20) near 4,113, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s, and is testing the 23.6% retracement at 4,093 with the 38.2 fib near 4,060 next below.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4,076 ny low exposes the 38.2 fib at 4,060 and Thursday's Asia-open base
A reclaim of the EMA(20) plus a break of the 4,128 lower high would reopen the 4,147 week high
Loss of 4,060 puts the 4,000 psych level and Wednesday's breakout zone back in focus
Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K), AHE and unemployment could materially shift this read; Williams speaks at 09:30 UTC
Impulse higher off Tuesday low, now a 4076–4147 consolidation.
The week opened at 3892.71 and chopped 3896–3971 through Tuesday before the midterm result drove the dominant leg from Wednesday's Asia session. That leg cleared the Wed high at 4067.75 and pushed to a week high of 4146.92 in Thursday's Asia hours. Thursday's NY session, around the strong claims data and a firmer USD, saw a false break of the 4109 day low down to the 4076.32 NY low, held above the 38.2% retracement near 4059, and snapped back to a 4128.06 rebound high. Price now sits marginally above EMA20 (~4107) on the H1 chart, with RSI(14) back near 57 after cooling from the Thursday-morning extreme.
Support: 4,107.00, 4,076.32, 4,067.75
Resistance: 4,128.06, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Williams at 09:30 UTC and Michigan at 15:00 UTC add risk
Failure to hold the 4076.32 NY low breaks rising support from Wednesday and exposes the Wed high at 4067.75 and the 38.2% retracement near 4059
H1 close back below EMA20 (~4107) keeps the range read with a downside tilt toward the NY low
Clearing the 4128.06 rebound high and then the 4146.92 week high resumes the impulse; a rejection there extends the consolidation
Higher lows from 3917.6; Thursday range 4076–4147 with lower highs.
The week's impulse ran from Tuesday's 3917.6 swing low to a 4146.9 week high, with both legs driven in the Asia session on the post-midterm USD and yield slide, leaving price well above the 3892.7 weekly open. Thursday turned into a 4076–4147 consolidation. The NY session flushed to the 4076.3 NY low as the USD recovered on firm claims and productivity, and the drop was bought straight back above the 4108.9 Asia low. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 4104, with RSI(14) reset to 52 from 84 at the high. A lower high at 4128 and the lower-highs line cap the range, while ema50/38.2% near 4059 sits below the NY low.
Support: 4,076.30, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,104.30, 4,128.10, 4,146.90
What it said to watch
H1 close below the higher-lows line (~4084) and the 4076.3 ny low exposes ema50/38.2% near 4059
Close above the 4128 lower high and the lower-highs line reopens the 4146.9 week high and the 4150 cap
Loss of 4059 leaves the 4000 round number as the next structural pivot
NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) with AHE, plus Williams at 09:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday; Thursday ranging 4076–4147 with lower highs.
The week opened near 3893 and chopped 3895–3971 into Tuesday. The midterm-driven impulse started in Wednesday's Asia/London session from 3919.95 and extended to the 4146.92 week high in Thursday's Asia session, helped by a weaker USD and lower yields. Since then highs have stepped lower. Today's NY session flushed to the 4076 ny low as USD and yields rebounded after the 189K claims print, recovered to the 4128 ny high, and has slipped back under ema20 near 4105, with RSI(14) back below 50 and well off Thursday's extreme.
Support: 4,076.32, 4,070.46, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,105.00, 4,128.06, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4076 ny low and the 4070 wed high breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 38.2% fib near 4060, then the 4000 round number
Reclaim of ema20 and a close above the 4128 ny high reopens the 4146.92 week high, which has capped price since Thursday's Asia session
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC Friday (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday; Thursday range 4109–4147 with lower highs.
Gold has climbed from Tuesday's 3917.56 low after the midterm sweep hit the USD. The impulse ran mostly through Wednesday's Asia-to-London hours and again in Thursday's Asian session to a 4146.92 week high. Since then H1 has compressed under a series of lower highs. The NY session dip through the 4109 range low to the 4076.32 NY low, as the USD firmed on the strong claims print, reversed within an hour and held well above the fib 38.2 near 4059. That leaves a false break. Price is back above EMA20 (~4107) and EMA50 (~4055), and RSI(14) has cooled to the high 50s from Wednesday's stretched readings.
Support: 4,108.95, 4,076.32, 4,059.30
Resistance: 4,135.92, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4109 range low and EMA20 reopens the 4076 NY low and the fib 38.2 near 4059
H1 close above the 4136 lower high and the 4146.92 week high breaks Thursday's compression
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
Higher highs intact; Thursday range broken lower in NY.
The post-election surge on Wednesday cleared the 3966–3971 area. That zone had capped the NY-open spikes on Monday and Tuesday, and the move ran on to a 4146.92 week high during Thursday's Asia session. Price then stalled in a 4109–4147 range, printing lower highs into London. In the NY session the USD rebound on the 189K claims print broke the range floor and dropped price to a 4076 NY low. That put price below EMA(20) near 4100 for the first time since Wednesday, while RSI(14) unwound from the mid-80s to about 49. EMA(50) near 4053 and the 38.2% retrace at 4060 sit just beneath.
Support: 4,076.32, 4,053.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,110.00, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the range floor at 4110 would turn the NY break into a false break
A failure to hold the ny low at 4076 exposes the 38.2% retrace / ema50 zone at 4053–4060
A loss of the 4000 round number would undo the post-election breakout structure
Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a soft print reopens the week high at 4146.92
Higher lows since Tuesday; Thursday range 4,092–4,147 with lower highs.
Gold has climbed roughly $250 from Tuesday's 3,895 low. The post-midterm USD and yield slide drove a Wednesday Asia-session break through 4,000, and Thursday's Asia session extended the move to the 4,146.92 week high. Since then price has held a 4,108–4,138 range capped by lower highs. A spike in the first hour of NY after the claims data tagged a day low of 4,092.57, the 23.6% impulse fib, before price recovered to ~4,112 just above EMA(20) near 4,105, with RSI(14) cooling from above 80 to ~59.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4,092.57 day low breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the prior high at 4,070 and the 38.2% impulse fib near 4,059
Close above the lower highs line near 4,136 and the 4,146.92 week high puts the 4,150 round number in play
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) near 4,105 would mark the first loss of this week's trend support
Fri NFP 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), plus Williams at 09:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Impulse from Tue low, now a tight 4109–4147 consolidation with a lower high.
Gold has run from Tuesday's 3895 low to a 4146.92 week high. Wednesday's Democratic-sweep USD selloff drove the break back above 4000, and Thursday's Asia session extended the move. Since then price has compressed into a 4109–4147 consolidation, printing a lower high at 4138 as the USD and yields rebound on firm claims data, while a rising EMA(20) near 4105 converges with the range low. RSI(14) has cooled from overbought toward 61, with the fib 23.6 at 4088 and the Wed high at 4068 the next structure below.
Support: 4,108.95, 4,087.58, 4,067.75
Resistance: 4,138.18, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4109 range low and EMA(20) exposes the fib 23.6 at 4088 and the Wed high near 4068
H1 close above the 4138 lower high and the 4147 week high resumes the impulse out of the consolidation
Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K) against ~79% Dec hike pricing could decide which side of the range breaks; Williams at 09:30 UTC is earlier risk
Pennant under 4146.92 after Wednesday's range break.
The week opened at 3892.71 and spent Monday and Tuesday in a 3891–3971 range, capped twice near 3970. The range broke in Wednesday's Asia session on the Democratic midterm sweep, and USD selling then extended the move through the Wednesday high at 4070.46 to a 4146.92 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Since then price has coiled in a 4109–4147 pennant above EMA(20) near 4103, with a lower high at 4138.18 and the Thursday low intact. RSI(14) has cooled from overbought to the mid-60s as a modest USD bounce caps upside in European trade.
Support: 4,108.95, 4,070.46, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,138.18, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4108.95 thu low breaks the pennant base and exposes EMA(20) near 4103 and the 4070.46 wed high
Close above the 4138.18 lower high and 4146.92 week high resolves the pennant to the upside
US Initial Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 GMT, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT, could materially shift this read within the hour
Friday 13:30 GMT NFP (f/c 65K) is the main event risk for the week high or a deeper retracement toward the 4000 round number
Gold printed higher lows through Tuesday at 3,895 and 3,918. The post-midterm USD and yield slide then broke the 3,895–3,971 range in Wednesday's early hours, and Thursday's Asia session extended the move to a 4,146.92 week high. Since then the London session has compressed between the 4,109 Thu low and a 4,138 range top, with price holding above EMA(20) near 4,102 and RSI(14) cooling to ~69 from an overbought 83 peak. The 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday impulse sits near 4,059, just under the 4,070 prior high.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4,109 Thu low exposes the 4,070 prior high and the 38.2% fib near 4,059
H1 close above the 4,146.92 week high extends the higher-lows sequence
US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could break the London range top or Thu low
Friday NFP (f/c 65K) in ~25h; a hot print raises the risk of a deeper retrace toward 4,000 psych
Post-breakout consolidation 4115–4135 beneath a lower high at 4140.85.
Higher lows at 3,895 Tuesday and 3,919.95 Wednesday built the base for a breakout. Gold then left the Monday–Tuesday 3,890–3,970 range on the post-midterm USD and yield slide, clearing the 4,070 prior high and reaching a week high of 4,146.92 early Thursday. Since then price has pulled back to a day low of 4,108.95 and is consolidating 4,115–4,135 beneath a lower high at 4,140.85. It holds above EMA(20), with RSI(14) easing from overbought into the high-60s, and the round number at 4,100 and the impulse's 38.2% fib near 4,060 sit below.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4,146.92 week high resumes the breakout leg
Failure to hold the 4,108.95 day low and the 4,100 round number exposes the 4,070 prior high and 38.2% fib of the impulse
Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could break the consolidation
Friday NFP (f/c 65K) after ADP, JOLTS and ISM beats is the main event risk to the week's rally
Clean break back below the 4,140.85 lower high into a range with lower lows would shift the read toward a deeper retracement of the impulse
Higher highs and lows since Tuesday; tight consolidation of lower highs below the week high.
The election impulse has carried gold about $230 off Tuesday's late-NY 3,917.56 low as the Democratic-sweep USD and yield slide drove two Asia-session legs. Those legs cleared Wednesday's prior high at 4,070 and printed a week high of 4,146.92 overnight. Since the 05:00 UTC drop to the 4,108.95 swing low, price has compressed into a 4,109–4,134 consolidation of lower highs under the range top, still above ema20 near 4,098 with RSI(14) cooling to ~69. The steep rally trendline from Tuesday has given way to sideways drift rather than a reversal.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4,108.95 swing low and ema20 (~4,098) breaks the consolidation floor, with the prior high at 4,070 next
H1 close above the 4,134 range top brings the 4,146.92 week high back into play
Jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed's Hammack (13:50 UTC) today, then Friday's NFP (f/c 65K), could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's 3919.95 low; shallow pullback holding above 4100.
Gold broke out of the 3891–3971 Monday–Tuesday range after the Democratic midterm sweep pushed the USD lower. Both impulse legs came during Asia hours, carrying price from Wednesday's 3919.95 low to a 4146.92 week high, with each pullback forming a higher low. Thursday's dip held at a 4108.95 pullback low, just above the 4100 psych handle. London has so far been capped near 4131, while price holds above EMA(20) and RSI(14) has cooled from overbought into the high 60s.
Support: 4,108.95, 4,100.00, 4,070.46
Resistance: 4,131.00, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4108.95 pullback low and the 4100 psych handle would break the higher-low line
Clearance of the 4131 london high and 4146.92 week high would extend the impulse; repeated failure there points to consolidation
A slide back to the 4070.46 prior high brings the 38.2% fib of the Wed–Thu impulse (~4060) into view
Jobless claims, Unit Labor Costs and Hammack from 13:30 UTC today, then Friday's NFP (f/c 65K), could materially shift this read
Mon–Tue 3891–3971 range broken; higher lows, now consolidating 4109–4147.
Gold broke out of the Monday–Tuesday 3891–3971 range in late Wednesday Asia trade, after the Democratic midterm sweep and lower yields hit the USD. It then extended through the 4100 round number in Thursday's Asia session to a week high of 4146.92. Price is now consolidating, with the 4108.95 pullback low holding and a lower high at 4131.36 capping the bounce. RSI(14) has eased to the high 60s, and the EMA20 near 4088 sits well below price.
Support: 4,108.95, 4,100.00, 4,088.00
Resistance: 4,131.36, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 4108.95 pullback low and the 4100 round number would point to a deeper retrace toward the ema20 near 4088 and the 38.2% fib near 4060
A close above the 4131.36 lower high and the 4146.92 week high would resume the uptrend off Wednesday's 3919.95 low
A break of the rising support line from Wednesday's NY low would end the higher-low sequence
Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC today, then Friday's NFP, could materially shift this read; a yield rebound is the main risk to the rally
Higher lows since Tuesday, breakout leg; first pullback held 4109.
Gold has climbed from the weekly open near 3892, with higher lows at Tuesday's 3896 and Wednesday's 3920. The Wednesday impulse came in the NY session as the Democratic midterm sweep drove USD selling and lower yields, and it cleared the 3970 two-day cap before extending in Thursday's Asia session to a week high at 4146.92. A sharp hourly drop then tagged the 4108.95 asian low before buyers stepped back in, and price sits above EMA(20) near 4092 with RSI(14) at about 70, off overbought readings.
Support: 4,108.95, 4,100.00, 4,070.46
Resistance: 4,146.92
What it said to watch
An hourly close below the 4108.95 asian low and the 4100 round number would mark the first lower low since Wednesday's breakout
Loss of 4070.46, the prior high from Wednesday, would put price near the 38.2% fib of the 3920–4147 Wednesday impulse
A close above the 4146.92 week high would extend the Asia session leg
US jobless claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could move yields and shift this read
Friday's NFP at 13:30 UTC is the larger catalyst for the breakout
06:04 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after Asia spike · RSI 67 · price 4,116.88
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's 3919.95 low; Mon–Tue 3891–3971 range broken.
Gold spent Monday and Tuesday whipsawing in a 3891–3971 range above the 3892.71 weekly open. It then broke out on Wednesday from 3919.95 as the Democratic sweep and softer yields hit the USD. That Wednesday impulse began into the London open and extended through NY to Wednesday's prior high at 4070.46, then carried into Thursday Asia for a week high of 4146.92. The 05:00 UTC bar marked a rejection from the 4140s down to a pullback low at 4108.95, just above the 4100 handle, with price still above the ema20 near 4088 and RSI(14) easing to ~67 from overbought.
Support: 4,108.95, 4,088.00, 4,070.46
Resistance: 4,140.85, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4108.95 pullback low and the 4100 handle exposes the ema20 near 4088 and the higher-lows trendline around 4083
Loss of the 4070.46 prior high, near the 38.2% of the Wednesday impulse (~4060), would mark a deeper unwind of the breakout
Recovery through the 4140.85 rejection area and a close above the 4146.92 week high resumes the higher-high sequence
US jobless claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, followed by Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could shift yields and this read ahead of Friday's NFP
Range break from 3895–3970 into higher highs above 4100.
Gold spent Monday and Tuesday boxed in a 3895–3970 range, with two NY-open spikes to about 3970 both faded. The Democratic midterm sweep and the USD selloff then drove a reversal from Wednesday's 3919.95 low, and Thursday's Asia leg carried price through the 4100 psych level to a week high at 4146.92. Both legs of the advance ran in the Asia session. Price sits well above EMA(20), RSI(14) near 78 is overbought, and the 4060–4070 prior high lines up with the 38.2% fib as the first deeper pullback shelf.
Support: 4,122.55, 4,100.00, 4,070.46
Resistance: 4,146.92, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4122.55 pullback low signals the Asia breakout stalling
Loss of 4100 psych exposes the 4070 prior high and the 38.2% fib zone
H1 close above the 4146.92 week high opens the path to the 4200 round number
Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could shift December-hike pricing ahead of Friday's NFP
04:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended and overbought · RSI 85 · price 4,138.60
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's Asia low; Mon–Tue 3891–3971 range broken.
Gold broke out of the Monday–Tuesday 3891–3971 range in Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD. The election leg then carved higher lows along a rising trendline and extended to a week high at 4146.92 in Thursday's Asia session. Price sits about 70 above EMA(20) near 4070, which lines up with the wed high at 4070.46, and RSI(14) near 85 is stretched with no meaningful pullback since the impulse began.
Support: 4,070.46, 4,032.24, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,146.92, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 4146.92 week high would leave the stretched election leg exposed to a pullback toward the wed high at 4070
An H1 close back below the wed high and EMA(20) near 4070 breaks the rising trendline and opens a deeper retracement toward the 50% fib at 4032
Loss of the 4000 round number would unwind most of the post-election breakout
A sustained move above 4146.92 brings the 4200 psych level into view
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Unit Labor Costs, then Fed's Hammack, could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP (f/c 65K)
03:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended after second impulse leg · RSI 79 · price 4,129.64
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's 3895 low; 3970 range cap broken, 4030–4070 shelf left behind.
Gold opened the week at 3892.71 after Friday's flush to 3870. It spent Monday and Tuesday capped near 3970, with both NY-session spikes fading back into the 3895–3970 band. The Democratic midterm sweep and a weaker USD broke that cap from late Asia into London on Wednesday, and a 4030–4070 consolidation followed before a second leg in Thursday's Asia session printed a week high at 4139.42. RSI(14) near 79 is overbought, and price sits roughly $68 above the EMA(20) near 4062, with Wednesday's high at 4070 the first shelf below.
Support: 4,070.46, 4,062.00, 4,029.28
Resistance: 4,139.42, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below 4070 (wed high) returns price into Wednesday's 4030–4070 consolidation and tests the EMA(20) near 4062
Loss of the range low at 4029, aligned with the 50% fib of the week's rally, would retrace more than half of the post-election move
Acceptance above the week high at 4139 and the 4150 round number extends the breakout; a stall there as RSI rolls off overbought would open the door to rsi divergence (bearish)
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, then Friday's NFP (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
02:04 UTC
Strong uptrend, stretched after Asia extension · RSI 79 · price 4,123.43
Mon-Tue 3891–3971 range broken Wednesday; higher highs and higher lows since 3919.95.
Gold opened the week at 3892.71 and spent Monday and Tuesday ranging between 3891 and 3971. The Democratic midterm sweep and a softer USD drove a break of that range from Wednesday's 3919.95 low, and the advance extended through NY hours to Wednesday's prior high at 4070.46. Today's Asia session added another ~$70 to a new week high at 4135.11. RSI(14) near 79 is overbought and price sits well above EMA(20), which is rising through the 4055–4070 Wednesday consolidation. The 4100 round number is the first area of interest below. A rising trendline along the week higher lows sits far beneath, near 3960.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,070.46, 4,052.90
Resistance: 4,135.11, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
Holding above the 4100 round number keeps the Asia extension intact. Losing it puts the 4070 prior high and EMA(20) back in focus.
A move back below the 4070 prior high opens the Wed impulse fib 38.2 at ~4053, then the 50% near 4027.
An H1 close above the 4135 week high extends the sequence toward the 4150 psych level.
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims (f/c 196K), Unit Labor Costs and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP.
Higher highs and higher lows after breaking the Mon–Tue range top near 3,971.
After Monday–Tuesday chopped between 3,891 and a range top near 3,971, Wednesday's impulse ran from 3,919.95 through Asia and London on the Democratic sweep, a weaker USD and lower yields, with NY extending to the 4,070 prior high. Dips during the advance held the 23.6% fib at 4,055 and the 38.2% fib at 4,029. Thursday's Asia session cleared that prior high to print a 4,096.72 week high, leaving RSI(14) near 73 and overbought with price roughly $45 above EMA(20).
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the prior high at 4,070 would turn the Asia push into a false break
Rejection at the week high 4,096.72 / 4,100 round number with RSI rolling over would mark momentum fading
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 4,029 would retrace a large part of Wednesday's impulse toward EMA(20)
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs, Fed's Hammack at 13:50, then Friday's NFP (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
00:04 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near week high · RSI 74 · price 4,063.65
Higher lows since Monday; Wednesday breakout above 3,970 now compressing at 4,055–4,071.
The Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD and flipped gold's week in Wednesday's Asia session. A near-$150 leg off the 3,917 higher low cleared the 3,965–3,971 Monday/Tuesday highs and extended through NY hours to a 4,071 week high. Price has since compressed between 4,055 and 4,071, above a rising EMA(20) near 4,036 and the 4,029 range floor, with RSI(14) holding overbought around 74 rather than fading. The higher-lows sequence from Monday's 3,891 week low remains intact.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4,071 week high reopens the path toward the 4,100 round number
Failure to hold the 4,029 range floor and EMA(20) exposes the 38.2% retrace of the election leg near 4,013 and 4,000 psych
A new high with RSI(14) printing below 74 would set up bearish divergence on the impulse
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, then Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K), could materially shift this read