22:07 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off one-year low · RSI 50 · price 4,099.15
LH/LL chain since Sep 2 high; testing falling trendline.
Gold has stepped lower in roughly weekly legs since the 4510 high on Sep 2. The Oct 30 liquidation leg printed a 1-yr low at 3870.26, and price chopped near 3900–3930 into the midterms. The Democratic sweep and falling yields then drove a two-day rebound back above psych 4000 and the ema20 (~4068), with Thursday closing above the falling trendline off the September high. Price is stalling near the 38.2% sep-oct fib (~4115), just under the rally high at 4146.92, while a still-declining ema50 near 4166 and the lower high at 4198.77 cap the recovery structurally.
Support: 4,057.79, 4,000.00, 3,870.26
Resistance: 4,146.92, 4,166.00, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
- NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Williams speaks at 09:30 UTC
- Daily close above the lower high at 4198.77 would break the LH/LL sequence and clear the 50% fib
- Close back below the thu low at 4057.79 and the falling trendline would mark the breakout as a false break
- Loss of psych 4000 reopens the 1-yr low at 3870.26
- Daily hold above the rally high at 4146.92 puts the ema50 near 4166 in play