V-shaped rebound from 3870 low, consolidating 4076–4147.
Gold has retraced the entire late-October liquidation leg. It rallied from the 3870 low through the 4000 psych level and the prior 4065–4083 range top after the Democratic midterm sweep weighed on the USD and yields, and EMA20 has crossed back above EMA50. Price is now holding a 4076–4147 band just under the 4142 highs that capped the window's opening bars, with the 4146.92 rally high acting as the cap. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 3900 pips, so ranges are wide rather than compressing into a breakout setup.
Support: 4,076.32, 4,041.24, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,146.92, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), with Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 4076.32 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib at 4041.24
H4 close above the 4146.92 rally high clears the prior-high cluster and opens the path to the 4200 round number
Failure to hold the 4000 psych level would undo the post-election recovery structure
Higher lows from 3870 low; consolidating 4076-4147 after breakout.
Higher-low structure since the 3870 yearly low, with the post-midterm squeeze reclaiming 4000 and running into a 4147 swing high that sits just above the 4142 prior high from the start of the window. Price is now consolidating between the 4076 range low, near the 23.6% fib of the 3870-4147 leg, and the swing high, with the latest bar rejecting the 4076 lows and closing at 4115. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 4300 pips and price holds above both EMAs, while a stronger USD and firmer yields are capping the rally.
Support: 4,076.32, 4,057.79, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,146.92, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and AHE could materially shift this read; Williams speaks at 09:30 UTC
H4 close above the 4147 swing high clears the multi-week cap and opens the 4200 round number
Loss of the 4076 range low exposes the 4058 breakout shelf and the 38.2% fib near 4041
Failure back below the 4000 round number would negate the higher-low recovery
V-shaped recovery off the 3870 low, higher lows, now testing the cycle high.
Gold has retraced the entire late-October slide. It rallied about 277 dollars from the 3870 one-year low, and the Democratic midterm sweep and softer USD drove the move back above 4000 and through the 4082.67 prior high. Price is now stalling just under the 4142-4146.92 cycle high, which is a retest of the window's opening high. That zone sits just below the 4150 round number, with RSI near 74 and ATR expanded, and the higher-lows line from the 3870 base sits far below. The 4108.95 swing low is the first shelf, followed by the 4082.67 prior high and the fib 38.2 at 4041.
Support: 4,108.95, 4,082.67, 4,041.24
Resistance: 4,146.92, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 4146.92 cycle high and the 4150 round number would extend the recovery into fresh highs for this window.
Failure to hold the 4108.95 swing low opens a pullback toward the 4082.67 prior high, then the fib 38.2 near 4041.
Overbought RSI and stalling closes under the cycle high would point to a double-top risk at 4142-4147.
US NFP on Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), plus Williams at 09:30 UTC, could materially shift this read via Dec hike pricing.
A break of the higher-lows line from the 3870 base would undo the recovery structure.
10:04 UTC
Sharp uptrend off the yearly low, stretched near prior highs · RSI 73 · price 4,123.86
V-shaped recovery from 3870.26; higher lows at 3895.50 and 4029.28, now pausing under the 4142-4147 cap.
Gold has retraced the entire late-October breakdown, rallying ~$275 from the 3870.26 yearly low on the post-election USD and yield slide. It cleared the 4082.67 prior high and is now stalling just below the 4142-4147 zone, where the swing high meets the early-window cap. Price holds well above both EMAs and the rising support line, but RSI near 73 and ATR(14) expanded to ~3930 pips show an extended, high-volatility leg rather than a compressing one.
Support: 4,108.95, 4,082.67, 4,041.24
Resistance: 4,146.92, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 4146.92 swing high clears the two-test cap and opens the path to the 4200 round number
Failure to hold the 4108.95 swing low points to a deeper pullback toward the 4082.67 prior high
A break of the rising support line and the fib 38.2 at 4041.24 would mark a loss of the rally's higher-low structure
US Initial Jobless Claims and Fed's Hammack today, then Friday's NFP (f/c 65K) and AHE, could materially shift this read via December hike pricing
Gold has retraced the entire late-October slide off the 3870 one-year low. A higher low at 3895 completed a double-bottom base, and price then cleared the neckline near 3971, which had capped three times, before pushing through the 4070 shelf on post-midterm USD selling and softer yields. Price is now testing the 4142–4147 prior high cluster, with ATR(14) expanding to roughly $38 and RSI overbought, so the move is extended well above both EMAs and far from the 38.2% fib of the rally at 4041.
Support: 4,070.00, 4,041.20, 3,971.00
Resistance: 4,146.90, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read; jobless claims and Hammack Thu 13:30–13:50 UTC are the pre-read
H4 close above the 4146.9 prior high opens the path to the 4200 round number
Failure to hold the 4070 shelf would expose the 38.2% fib at 4041 and signal a fading squeeze
A return below the 3971 neckline would undermine the double-bottom read
02:04 UTC
Rebound off yearly low, approaching prior swing high · RSI 67 · price 4,064.85
Higher low at 3895 after the 3870 low; double-bottom neckline at 3971 cleared.
The late-October decline from the 4082.67 swing high bottomed at 3870, and the 3895 higher low completed a double bottom. Price broke the 3971 neckline when gold squeezed higher on the Democratic midterm sweep and a softer USD. Price now holds above both EMAs, has retraced roughly 90% of the decline and is pressing toward the swing high. ATR(14) has expanded to about 35 dollars, consistent with an impulsive leg rather than compression.
Support: 4,030.00, 4,000.00, 3,971.00
Resistance: 4,082.67, 4,142.00
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 4082.67 swing high reclaims the full late-Oct decline and opens the 4142 prior range top
A close back below the 4030 breakout area would leave a failed push below the swing high
Loss of 4000 (round number) puts the 3971 neckline retest in play and weakens the double-bottom read
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Hammack, then Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K), could materially shift this read