Lower highs and lower lows, bouncing off fresh low.
Gold remains in an accelerated H4 downtrend, having lost the March trough and printed a fresh 7-month low at 3964.51 before a corrective bounce back toward 4030; the in-line PCE print failed to rescue the metal as the hawkish-Fed/strong-USD theme stays entrenched. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, with ATR(14) expanded — a trend-extension regime rather than compression. The bounce off 3964 has yet to reclaim the 4000 psychological handle on a closing basis.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,964.51, 3,930.00
Resistance: 4,100.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 4100 march low would ease the downside pressure
Failure to hold 3964 swing low opens the 3930-3885 October trough zone
UoM Michigan inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, bouncing off 7-mo low.
Gold remains in an accelerated H4 downtrend, having lost the March trough and printed a 7-month low at 3964 before bouncing back to retest the 4000 psychological level — the move tracks the entrenched hawkish-Fed/rate-hike read after an in-line PCE failed to relieve the dollar. Price is holding below both EMA20 and EMA50 with the bounce capped near 4044. ATR remains elevated, consistent with a trending, expansionary regime rather than compression.
Support: 3,930.00, 3,885.00
Resistance: 4,044.12, 4,100.00, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 3964 opens the 3930-3885 October support zone
Reclaim of 4100 march low needed to question the downtrend; 4000 psych the first hurdle
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations plus Williams/Kashkari could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the early-month top.
Gold remains in a clean H4 downtrend — successive lower highs since the 4382 top, with the break below $4,000 marking a 7-month low at 3964 on hawkish Fed rate-hike repricing and a 13-month-high USD; in-line PCE offered no relief. Price is now staging a modest bounce back to the $4,000 pivot off oversold RSI. ATR(14) is expanding, consistent with the directional impulse rather than compression.
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,382.39
What it said to watch
Sustained reclaim of $4,000 then 4100 march low would challenge the downtrend read
Break of the 3930-3885 oct support zone extends the lower-low sequence
Fed speakers (Williams, Goolsbee) today could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, basing near range low.
Gold has been in a sustained H4 downtrend for two weeks, printing successive lower highs and lower lows as the 'debasement trade' unwound on a 13-month-high dollar and hawkish Fed-hike repricing; in-line core PCE offered no relief. Price sliced through the $4,100 March low and tagged $3,964 before a shallow recovery back above the $4,000 psychological pivot. EMA20 and EMA50 both cap from above and ATR remains elevated, so the move is still in expansion mode rather than compression.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,930.00
Resistance: 4,100.00
What it said to watch
Sustained loss of the 3930-3885 oct support zone extends the downtrend
Reclaim of the 4100 march low needed to challenge the lower-high structure
Failure to hold the 4000 psych pivot reopens the 3964 swing low
Fed speakers (Williams, Goolsbee) and Fri UoM sentiment could shift the read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 34 · price 3,982.89
Lower highs, lower lows; below $4,000.
Persistent H4 downtrend: sequence of lower highs and lower lows has driven price through the $4,000 psychological mark to 7-month lows near 3959. The debasement trade is unwinding on hawkish-Fed repricing and a 13-month-high DXY; in-line PCE produced no haven bid. ATR(14) has expanded as the move accelerates, with both EMAs sloping down well above price.
Support: 3,959.13, 3,930.00
Resistance: 4,023.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 3959 swing low opens the 3930-3885 Oct trough zone
H4 close back above 4023 ytd low would challenge the lower-high structure
Fed speakers (Williams 19:40 UTC, Goolsbee 22:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 38 · price 3,982.89
Lower highs and lower lows, fresh 7-month low.
Gold remains in a sustained H4 downtrend, having lost the $4,000 handle and printed a fresh 7-month low at 3959 as a 13-month-high DXY and Fed hike repricing unwind the long-gold trade; in-line PCE offered no haven relief. Price is now consolidating in a tight 3959–4002 band below both EMAs, with the recent down-leg from 4220 stalling just above the October support shelf. ATR remains elevated, signalling the move is still in expansion rather than compression.
Support: 3,959.13, 3,930.00, 3,885.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,023.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 3959 opens the 3930–3885 Oct support zone
A close back above the 4000 psych level would relieve downside pressure toward 4023 ytd low
Fed speakers Williams (19:40 UTC) & Goolsbee (22:30 UTC) could shift this read
Gold remains in a clean multi-week downtrend, carving lower highs and lower lows after the break of the $4,000 psych level to a fresh 7-month low near 3959. Price is pinned well below EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR(14) still expanded, the move accelerated by a 13-month-high USD and hawkish higher-for-longer Fed repricing. RSI is in oversold territory but has not diverged, so downside momentum is intact.
Support: 3,959.13
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,040.00
What it said to watch
Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
H4 close back above 4000 psych would neutralise the breakout
Failure to hold the 3959 swing low confirms continuation lower
Reclaim of 4040 supply needed to challenge the lower-high structure
Gold remains in a steep multi-week downtrend, rolling over from the 4500+ region and decisively breaking the 4000 psychological level to a fresh swing low at 3959 amid a 13-month-high USD and hawkish Fed repricing. ATR(14) is elevated, confirming trend expansion rather than compression, and price is pinned well below both EMA20 and EMA50. Buyers stabilised the last two bars just under 4000, but structure is unbroken to the downside.
Support: 3,959.13, 3,950.00
Resistance: 4,000.00
What it said to watch
Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close back above 4000 would challenge the breakdown
Failure to hold 3959 confirms continuation toward 3950 psych
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 32 · price 3,996.74
Lower highs and lower lows, fresh 7-month lows.
Persistent downtrend with stacked lower highs and lower lows; gold sliced through the $4,023-25 YTD low and now hovers just under the $4,000 psych level, having printed a 7-month low at 3960 before a shallow bounce. The leg lower is tied to Fed rate-hike repricing and DXY at 13-month highs crushing the debasement trade. ATR remains elevated, signalling an expanding, momentum-driven decline rather than compression, with supply capping near 4044 and the 4090 fib region.
Support: 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,044.00, 4,090.00
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close below 3960 swing low confirms continuation to fresh downside
Core PCE at 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst — a cooler print could spark short-covering relief back toward the 4090-4200 fib zone
Reclaim of the $4,000 psych level would ease the immediate selling read
XAUUSD remains in a clean H4 downtrend, carving lower highs and lower lows since the rejection at 4382 and now trading through the $4,000 handle at seven-month lows. The break of the prior 4023-4025 YTD floor has extended losses to 3959, driven by the rebuilt USD and Fed rate-hike repricing; ATR remains elevated, signalling an active trend rather than compression. Price is attempting to stabilise just under $4,000 after the latest leg down.
Support: 3,959.13
Resistance: 4,040.00
What it said to watch
Core PCE at 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
H4 close below 3959 confirms continuation to a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 4040 would challenge the lower-high structure
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 31 · price 4,010.58
Lower highs and lower lows, sub-4100 breakdown.
Gold remains in a clean H4 downtrend, printing successive lower highs since the 4382 peak and breaking the 4100 prior support as USD pushed to 13-month highs on Fed-hike repricing. The selloff extended to a 3964 recent low before a marginal close back near 4010; the 4000 psych level and 3964 low are the active downside markers, with broken support around 4090 now capping. ATR(14) is elevated, consistent with an expanding, momentum-driven leg rather than compression.
Support: 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,090.00
What it said to watch
Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A clean H4 close below 3964 recent low opens the 4000 psych break and further downside
Reclaim of 4090 broken support would challenge the lower-high sequence
Gold is in a sustained downtrend, having broken the $4,100 round number and the $4,023-4,025 YTD low as the USD pushed to 13-month highs on hawkish Fed repricing. Price now trades sub-4,025 with ATR(14) expanding, confirming a trending — not compressing — regime, and EMA20/EMA50 stacked above price. Last contact at $3,959 marks the immediate swing low ahead of the $4,000 psychological figure.
Support: 3,959.13
Resistance: 4,100.00
What it said to watch
Core PCE at 12:30 UTC is the day's catalyst and could materially shift this read
Close below 3959 extends the down-leg with little support to fresh lows
Reclaim of 4100 needed to question the lower-high structure