Gold remains in a multi-week downtrend, having flushed below the $4,000 pivot to a 7-month low at 3959 after the USD surge on firm GDP and sticky PCE. The last several bars have staged an oversold relief bounce back to 4091, reclaiming the $4,000 psych level and stalling into the $4,050 cap as the dollar rally pauses. Price is recovering toward the 50% retrace of the 4220-3959 leg, but the broader lower-high structure is still intact below the H4 EMA50.
Support: 4,050.00, 3,959.00
Resistance: 4,096.00, 4,150.00, 4,220.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4050 pivot and 4096 session high would extend the relief bounce toward 4150
A break below the 3959 7mo low floor opens fresh multi-month downside
ADP and ISM Manufacturing on Jul 1 could materially shift this read
Gold carved a steep H4 downtrend into a 7-month low near 3959, where a double bottom formed as the post-PCE USD rally stalled. Price has since reclaimed the prior 4050 cap and now trades around the 50% retrace of the 4221-3959 leg. ATR(14) stays elevated, marking an expanding, still-volatile regime rather than a settled base.
Support: 4,050.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,150.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 4000 reopens the 3959 floor
Rejection at 4150 keeps the broader downtrend intact
ADP and ISM on Jul 1 could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since early-month break.
Gold remains in a clear H4 downtrend, printing lower highs and lower lows since the early-month break under $4,300, accelerating to a 7-month low at $3,959 before a relief bounce back above $4,000. The selloff tracks the hawkish-Fed, higher-yields regime that gutted the haven trade, with in-line PCE confirming higher-for-longer. Price is recovering toward the EMA20 near 4047 but the broader structure stays bearish below the March low at $4,100.
Support: 3,959.00, 4,000.00, 3,930.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,190.00, 4,047.00
What it said to watch
Repeated rejections below 4050-4100 keep the downtrend intact
H4 close above 4100 opens a retest of the 4190 swing high
Failure to hold 4000/3959 risks the 3930-3885 October support zone
Michigan sentiment + inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; consolidating above the 3959 low.
Gold knifed through $4,000 to a 7-month low at 3959 on Fed-hike repricing, then clawed back to ~4030 after an in-line core PCE print removed fresh hawkish fuel. Price is now consolidating below both EMAs in a clear lower-high/lower-low structure, with ATR still elevated from the breakdown leg. The bounce is corrective so far, capping under the 4044 swing high.
Support: 3,959.13, 3,900.00
Resistance: 4,044.12, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
Michigan sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC plus Williams/Kashkari could materially shift this read
A break below 3959 opens the path toward the 3900 oct trough zone
Reclaim of 4100 march low needed to neutralise the downtrend
Persistent downtrend since the early-month break, with the impulse from 4382 puncturing 4000 to a 7-month low at 3959 before clawing back. Price is now consolidating in a tight 4000-4044 band beneath both EMAs after in-line core PCE denied the move fresh downside. ATR remains elevated, so the basing is a pause within an expansionary leg rather than a regime change.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,959.00, 3,885.00
Resistance: 4,044.00, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
Sustained close back above 4100 (march low) needed to neutralise the downtrend
Loss of 3959 swing low reopens the 3930-3885 oct trough zone
Michigan inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 remains in a clear downtrend after gold collapsed below the 4000 psych level for the first time since November amid Fed-hike repricing and a 13-month-high USD. Price has bounced off the 3959 7-month low into a 4000-4044 relief stall, but the structure of lower highs is intact below the 4100 March low. ATR(14) is elevated, signalling an expanded-volatility regime rather than compression.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,959.13, 3,930.00
Resistance: 4,044.00, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 3959 opens the 3930-3885 oct trough zone
Reclaim of 4100 march low needed to challenge the downtrend
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC is the gold catalyst and could shift this read
Downtrend intact since rolling over below 4382; price broke the 4000 psychological figure for the first time in months and tagged a 7-month low at 3964 before an oversold relief bounce reclaimed the figure. The slide accelerated as the debasement trade unwound on a 13-month-high USD and Fed-hike repricing — the bounce is corrective, with price still pinned below a downward-sloping EMA20 and EMA50. Elevated ATR confirms an expanding, not compressing, regime.
Support: 3,930.00
Resistance: 4,044.12, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4044 swing high opens path toward the 4100 March low
Loss of 3964 exposes the 3930-3885 Oct trough support zone
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Downtrend intact on H4 — gold sliced below 4000 to a 7-month low at 3959 as the debasement long-gold trade was unwound on Fed-hike repricing, with PCE in line offering no relief. Price is now staging an oversold short-cover bounce off the low back toward the 4044 recent high, but remains capped under both EMAs. ATR(14) is elevated, reflecting the expansion through the 4100 March-low break.
Support: 3,959.13, 3,930.00
Resistance: 4,044.12, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4100 (march low) would invalidate the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 3959 swing low opens the 3930-3885 oct support zone
UoM Michigan inflation expectations + Fed Williams/Kashkari (14:00-15:30 UTC) could shift this read
Gold remains in a clear H4 downtrend, printing successive lower highs and lower lows as the debasement trade unwinds on Fed-hike repricing; the slide accelerated through $4,000 to a 7-month low at 3964 before an oversold short-cover bounce lifted price back toward 4034. In-line PCE offered no fresh catalyst, leaving the structure intact below stacked EMA20/EMA50. The 3930-3885 October trough is the next downside reference, while 4044 and the broken March low near 4100 cap any recovery.
Support: 3,930.00
Resistance: 4,044.00, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 4100 march low would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of 3964 swing low opens the 3930-3885 oct zone
UoM Michigan inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read