Lower highs from Wednesday's FOMC high, range break below 3989.
Gold held a 3989–4083 range from Tuesday to Thursday, with Wednesday's post-FOMC spike to 4082.67 the week high and a sequence of lower highs since. Friday's London open broke the range floor to 3965. The bounce to 3999 failed, and the NY session then drove the main leg through the 3900 handle to a 3870.26 week low as USD and yields recovered and tech-led liquidation hit gold. RSI(14) sits near 21, oversold, and price closed the week around $60 below the ema20 at 3937.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,900.00, 3,937.00, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7, Prices Paid 77.5) could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the 3900 handle would be the first reclaim of broken support
Failure to hold the 3870 week low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 3850 round number the next reference
A recovery through the ema20 and the 3965 london low would test the lower-highs trendline near 3970, close to the 38.2% fib
US midterms Tue and ADP Wed add event risk to the week-low test
Tue–Thu 3989–4083 range broken lower; lower highs since the post-FOMC high.
Gold held a 3989–4083 range from Tuesday through Thursday. The post-FOMC spike to 4082.67 marked the week high, and lower highs followed into Thursday's session. Friday's range break came in two legs: a London-open drop to the 3965 prior low that was rejected near 3999, then a NY-session flush through the 3900 psych level to a 3870.26 week low, as liquidation selling outran easing December hike odds. Price sits well below EMA(20) near 3925 with RSI(14) around 22, and the 38.2% retracement of the week's fall is up at 3951.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,850.00
Resistance: 3,900.00, 3,925.00, 3,965.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 3900 psych would put the breakdown at risk of becoming a false break
Failure to hold the 3870 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 3850 round number
Rebounds into ema20 near 3925 and the 3965 prior low test whether broken support now caps price
A new low with RSI(14) holding above Friday's trough would form a bullish divergence on the stretched move
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7, Prices Paid 77.5) and Tuesday's midterms could materially shift this read