21:45 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into new lows · RSI 29 · price 3,875.80
Lower-high/lower-low chain since 25 Aug peak; July-Oct floor broken.
Gold has printed a clean lower-high/lower-low sequence since the 4696.74 late-August peak, with weekly legs down through 4282, 4110 and 3975, and price now sits below a falling EMA(50). Friday's 150-dollar bar sliced through both the oct low at 3975.70 and the july low at 3942.64 and closed near the 3870.26 ytd low. The digest frames the move as a liquidation-led flush on a hawkish Fed and firm yields rather than a rates repricing alone. RSI near 28 marks the first oversold daily reading in the window, while the descending trendline off the August high continues to cap each lower high, most recently 4082.67.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,800.00
Resistance: 3,942.64, 3,975.70, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
- ISM Manufacturing Mon 2 Nov 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7, Prices Paid 77.5) could materially shift this read via December hike odds
- Daily close back above the july low at 3942.64 and the oct low at 3975.70 would mark Friday's break as a false break
- Failure to hold the 3870.26 ytd low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3800 round number
- Descending trendline near 4060-4070 and the 4082.67 lower high cap any rebound; a close above them breaks the lower-high sequence
- US midterms Tue 3 Nov and ADP Wed 4 Nov are added event risk for the yield/USD backdrop