AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Thursday, 16 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:04 UTC
Recovery uptrend, stalling at cap · RSI 62 · price 0.69945
Higher lows since the 0.6867 base, testing 0.7015 ceiling.
AUDUSD has clawed back from the 0.6867 recovery low with a clean higher-low structure, reclaiming 0.7000 and printing a swing high at 0.7020. The advance is USD-led — soft US CPI/PPI pared Fed tightening bets — and price is now stalling into the 50-day EMA cap near 0.7015. ATR(14) is steady around 15 pips; momentum is intact above the 9d ema at 0.6962 but continuation hinges on clearing the 0.7015 ceiling.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6930, 0.6867
Resistance: 0.7015, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7015 opens the path toward the 0.7045 uob resist
Failure to hold 0.6962 (9d ema) threatens the higher-low sequence toward the 0.6930 swing low
Australian jobs Jul 23 could materially shift this read into the RBA meeting
Higher highs/lows off mid-month low, stalling below 0.7020.
Recovery off the mid-month low near 0.6867 has built a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows; the break through the 0.6943 breakout base drove price to a 0.7020 swing high before stalling. The pop was USD-driven — soft US CPI/PPI pared Fed tightening bets — and price is now consolidating above the 0.6986 range floor. ATR is moderate as momentum flattens just under resistance.
Support: 0.6986, 0.6943, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7020 swing high opens the path to the 0.7045 range top
Failure to hold the 0.6986 range floor exposes the 0.6943 breakout base
Loss of 0.6913 swing low would break the higher-low structure
Australian jobs data Jul 23 is the key domestic swing factor into RBA
17:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing at cap · RSI 62 · price 0.70006
Higher highs & higher lows since base at 0.6865.
AUDUSD has carved a clean sequence of higher lows off the 0.6865 base, reclaiming the 0.7000 handle on the soft US CPI/PPI-driven dollar sell-off. Price is stalling into the 50-day EMA cap around 0.7012, with a two-day range building just under it. ATR is moderate — the rally is USD-led rather than Aussie-led, leaving continuation dependent on further dollar softness.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6913, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7012, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7015 opens the path toward 0.7045
Failure to hold 0.6962 signals a lower-low back toward the low-0.69s
US Michigan sentiment/inflation expectations Fri could shift the USD-driven read
17:03 UTC
Recovery uptrend, stalling at EMA50 cap · RSI 62 · price 0.70006
Higher lows since the 0.6865 base, testing 0.7012.
AUDUSD reclaimed the 0.7000 round number on the multi-day USD-weakness leg after soft US CPI/PPI, printing higher lows off the 0.6865 base and stalling into the EMA50 cap near 0.7012. The last several bars are consolidating in a tight band under the week high at 0.70207, with the 0.7045 range top the next reference above. Momentum has cooled after the impulse off 0.6913, ATR expansion during the pop now easing into balance.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6962, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.7012, 0.70207, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7012 EMA50 cap opens the path toward 0.70207 then 0.7045
Failure to hold 0.7000 round number exposes 0.6962 swing low
Australian jobs (Jul 23) is the key domestic swing factor into the read
Friday Michigan sentiment / inflation expectations could shift the USD leg driving this
13:03 UTC
Recovery uptrend off the base · RSI 65 · price 0.70085
Higher lows since the 0.6867 base, reclaimed 0.7000.
Price carved a rounded base near 0.6867 through mid-window, then built higher lows and impulsed back through 0.7000 on broad USD weakness after soft US CPI/PPI. The leg has stalled just under the 0.7012-0.7021 cap with ATR expanding on the advance, and EMA20 sits above EMA50 confirming the recovery structure. Momentum is positive but the 0.7000 reclaim is dollar-driven rather than an Aussie-led move.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6962, 0.6867
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.7037
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 0.7021 opens scope toward 0.7037/0.7045
Failure to hold 0.7000 reopens 0.6962 near support
Friday UoM inflation expectations could shift the USD-weakness read driving this leg
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, recovering from base · RSI 64 · price 0.70085
Higher lows since the 0.6865 low, testing 0.7000-0.7012 cap.
AUDUSD has reclaimed 0.7000 after a multi-day base near 0.6865-0.6950, driven by broad USD weakness following soft US CPI and PPI prints. Price is stalling into the 0.7012-0.7021 cap with EMA20 back above EMA50 and ATR expanding as the recovery extends. The move is dollar-led rather than Aussie-led, leaving 0.7012 as a live ceiling.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6985, 0.6943
Resistance: 0.7012, 0.7021, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7021 opens the path toward 0.7045
Failure to hold 0.7000 exposes 0.6985 then the 0.6943 breakout zone
Friday UoM inflation expectations could shift USD tone and this read
AUDUSD reclaimed the 0.7000 round number on the broad USD softness that followed the soft US CPI/PPI misses, extending a higher-high, higher-low sequence off the 0.6910 base. Price is now stalling in the 0.7000-0.7021 zone with EMA20 and EMA50 stacked below, the recent 0.7021 high repeatedly capping advances. ATR sits mid-range, showing an orderly grind rather than an impulsive extension.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6969, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.7037
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7021 recent high extends the breakout toward 0.7037 prior high
Loss of 0.6969 breakout would question the higher-low structure
Australia jobs data Jul 23 is the key catalyst that could reset this read
Higher lows off the mid-window low, capped near 0.7020.
AUDUSD has carved higher lows since the 0.6865 base and pushed back above 0.7000 on broad USD softness after the soft US CPI/PPI misses. The advance is stalling at the 0.7015-0.7021 ceiling where prior attempts have repeatedly failed. Price sits just under 0.7000 with EMA20 and EMA50 both beneath, but the round number is acting as a pivot.
Support: 0.6930, 0.6865, 0.6835
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7021
What it said to watch
H4 close and hold above 0.7021 opens the path higher; repeated rejection there keeps the range capped
Failure to hold 0.6930 confirms a lower-low and breaks the higher-low sequence
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this USD-driven read
05:03 UTC
Uptrend, extending · RSI 66 · price 0.69998
Higher highs and higher lows off early-month base.
AUDUSD has ground higher since the early-month base near 0.6865, printing a clean sequence of higher lows and breaking above the prior 0.6890-0.6975 range on broad USD weakness after soft US CPI and PPI prints. Price now presses the 0.7000 psych pivot with the 0.7015 area as a hard cap tested repeatedly this week; ATR(14) has expanded as the move extended. Momentum is firm with RSI in the mid-60s and price holding above both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6975, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7015, 0.70207
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7015 opens the path higher and confirms the USD-led breakout extension
Failure to hold 0.7000/0.6975 signals a slip back into the prior 0.6890-0.6975 range
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Uptrend, testing psych cap · RSI 66 · price 0.69998
Recovery off 0.6835 base, higher lows into 0.7000.
AUDUSD recovered from the 0.6835-0.6890 base and has pushed through prior resistance into the 0.7000 psychological pivot, a USD-led move after soft US CPI and PPI misses. Higher-low structure is intact with price holding above both EMA20 and EMA50, and the recent expansion in ATR marks a shift out of the mid-June compression. Momentum is firm but RSI near 66 into the 0.7015 major cap signals the rally is stretching against known resistance.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6913, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7015, 0.70399
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7015 opens the path toward 0.7040 prior high
Rejection at 0.7000-0.7015 risks a slip back into the 0.6890-0.6975 range
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this USD-led read
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum strong · RSI 70 · price 0.70087
Higher highs, higher lows since 0.6913 base.
AUDUSD broke out of the multi-week 0.6890-0.6975 range and rallied to 0.70207, riding soft US CPI and PPI misses that trimmed Fed pricing and pressured the dollar. Structure has flipped to higher highs and higher lows off the 0.6913 base, with price now testing the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.7015 pivot that has repeatedly capped this move. ATR is expanding, consistent with an active trend leg rather than compression.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69689, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.7015, 0.70207, 0.70412
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7015 opens the path toward 0.70412 prior high
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could rebuild USD bid and reject price at 0.7000-0.7015
Failure to hold 0.7000 risks a slip back into the prior 0.6890-0.6975 range
AUDUSD has climbed steadily off the mid-window 0.6865 base, printing higher lows and breaking above the 0.6960 range top; the leg toward 0.7000 tracks soft US CPI and PPI prints that trimmed Fed-hike bets and pressured the dollar. Price now sits just under the 0.7015 major resistance flagged by the digest, with RSI stretched into overbought territory as the move matures. ATR is expanding, consistent with a trend extending rather than compressing.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6943, 0.6885
Resistance: 0.7015, 0.7021, 0.7040
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7015 opens the path toward 0.7040
Failure to hold 0.6980 negates the breakout and reopens the range
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read