Lower highs since the 87183 late-Sep peak; lower low at 80264, bounce rejected at 61.8% fib.
BTC has printed a sequence of lower highs from 87183 through 86526. The early-October breakdown from the 85300-86500 shelf, with 85500 as the breakdown level, extended to an oct low at 80264 as a hawkish FOMC minutes read and a firm USD weighed on risk. The recovery stalled at 84258, a fresh lower high just above the 61.8% fib of the 86526-80264 leg and under the descending lower-highs trendline. Price has since slipped back toward the fib 38.2 at 82655, and ATR(14) has re-expanded to roughly 550 points (about 55,000 pips) after the weekend compression.
Support: 82,655.00, 82,200.00, 80,264.00
Resistance: 83,395.00, 84,258.00, 85,500.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 84258 lower high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence and reopen the 85500 breakdown area
Failure to hold the 82200 swing low would expose the oct low at 80264 and extend the lower-low structure
Reclaiming EMA20 near 83030 and the fib 50% at 83395 would neutralise the rejection read
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6% MoM, 3.7% YoY) could materially shift this read; Waller and Bowman speak beforehand
Lower highs and lower lows since 87,058; bounce capped at 61.8%.
BTC has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 87,058 peak. Hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD drove the break from the 86,526 prior high to the 80,264 cycle low. The rebound stalled at 84,258, a lower high sitting on the 61.8% retracement and the lower-highs trendline, and price has slipped back through the fib 50% toward the 82,300 swing low, with EMA20 now below EMA50. ATR(14) eased after the breakdown but re-expanded on the rally and rejection off 84,258.
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 82,300 swing low exposes the 80,264 cycle low and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 83,400 fib 50% and a close above the 84,258 lower high would break the lower-highs trendline, with the 86,526 prior high the next structural cap
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y). A hot print extending USD strength would weigh on this structure, while a soft print could test the lower-highs trendline
Waller (Tue) and Bowman (Wed) Fedspeak on October hike odds could shift USD tone before CPI
Lower highs since 87,058; bounce from 80,264 capped near 61.8% fib.
BTC has printed successive lower highs across the window: 87,058, 86,866, then the 86,526 prior high. The last of these preceded the slide to the 80,264 swing low. The rebound from there stalled at a 84,258 lower high, just above the 61.8% retracement, and the past two bars have dropped price back to the 38.2% level near 82,650. That puts it at the top of the 82,200-83,200 range built after the low. Price sits below both EMAs with ATR off its selloff peak, and firm USD and hawkish Fed pricing ahead of Wednesday's CPI are providing a headwind.
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 82,202 range low reopens the 80,264 swing low
Close above the 84,258 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to clear the fib 50% at 83,395 keeps the bounce read as corrective
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.7% y/y) could materially shift this read; Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC today and Waller Tue are earlier risk points
09:07 UTC
Downtrend, recovery bounce under way · RSI 63 · price 83,788.73
Lower highs from 87,183; higher lows off the 80,264 swing low.
BTC has carved a sequence of lower highs at 87,183, 87,058, 86,866 and 86,525. Price then broke down from the 85,500 shelf to an 80,264 swing low as hawkish Fed minutes and a firm USD weighed on risk. Since then, recovery lows have stepped higher through the low-volatility weekend base near the 82,202 weekend low. Price is now retesting the 83,400–84,300 former range zone, between the 50% retracement and the 61.8% fib at 84,344, with ATR re-expanding after the weekend compression.
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 61.8% fib at 84,344 would put the 85,500 breakdown level back in play
Loss of the 83,208 higher low breaks the recovery lows trendline and reopens the 82,202 weekend low
Only a move above the 86,866 lower high would break the multi-week lower-high sequence
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC, with Waller Tue and Bowman Wed beforehand, could materially shift this read
A move below 80,264 swing low resumes the downtrend leg
Lower highs from 87.2k; rebound off 80.26k printing higher lows.
Lower highs at 87,183, 87,058 and 86,866 preceded a break of the 85,500 range floor that ran to the 80,264 swing low, with the hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop weighing. The rebound since has built higher lows along a rising rebound line and stalled at the 84,109 rebound high, just under the fib 61.8 of the 86.9k–80.3k drop. Price sits near the 50% level, above EMA20 but below EMA50, with EMA20 still under EMA50; ATR(14) has compressed from the breakdown bars.
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 84,344 fib 61.8 and the rebound high opens a test of the 85,500 range floor
Loss of the 83,208 higher low and the rebound line exposes the 82,202 weekend low
A break of the 80,264 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y), plus Waller Tue and Bowman Wed, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 87058, lower low at 80264; bounce stalling at fib 61.8.
Swing structure has turned lower. Highs stepped down from 87058 to the 86526 lower high, and the slide from the 85500 breakdown point printed a swing low at 80264 as hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD weighed. The rebound has held a higher low at 82202 through a tight, low-ATR weekend range. It then extended to 84109, near the fib 61.8 retracement of the 86526–80264 leg, where it has stalled. Price is back above EMA20 but still under EMA50, and EMA20 remains below EMA50.
Support: 82,202.47, 80,263.61
Resistance: 84,109.37, 86,525.71
What it said to watch
H4 close above the fib 61.8 at 84109 opens the path back to the 85500 breakdown area
Failure to hold the 82202 higher low exposes the 80264 swing low and extends the lower-low sequence
Only a break above the 86526 lower high would undo the descending-high structure
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read; Waller and Bowman speak ahead of it