Monday reversed Sunday's breakout in full. Price was rejected at the 84,258 week high early in the session, carved a sequence of lower highs and slipped back through the Saturday–Sunday base, then made a fresh lower low at the 82,022 monday low late in the day. The slide tracks a firm USD at 17-month highs and hawkish Fed commentary, including Hammack today. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), near the 78.6% retrace of the Friday-to-Monday rally, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s; the 83,081 lower high and the fib 61.8 at 82,563 mark the nearest caps.
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 82,563 (fib 61.8) and the lower-highs trendline near 82,800 would challenge the reversal read
Failure to hold the 82,022 monday low exposes the 81,515 friday low and a full retrace of the Friday-to-Monday rally
Reclaiming the 83,081 lower high would break the lower-high sequence off the week high
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; a hot print is the larger risk given the bid USD
22:05 UTC
Short-term downtrend after the weekend high failed · RSI 41 · price 82,496.15
Lower highs from 84258; price back inside Friday's range.
The weekend push through the Friday high at 83430 ran to an 84258 week high early Monday, then reversed from the London open. The Monday decline unwound the entire weekend gain and printed a Monday low at 82264 during NY hours. The 20:00 UTC bounce stalled at 83081, a lower high just above the 38.2% retrace and the EMA(20), before rejection back to 82500, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs, in step with a firm USD on risk-off and hawkish Fed commentary rather than any BTC-specific catalyst.
Support: 82,264.40, 81,515.23
Resistance: 83,430.12
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 83081 lower high and back over EMA(20) neutralises the lower-highs sequence; the 83430 friday high is the next reference
Failure to hold the 82264 monday low exposes the 82200 friday low and then the 81515 week low
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) ahead of US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via the USD
21:09 UTC
Two-way after a failed breakout, rebounding · RSI 50 · price 83,029.56
Higher lows since Friday intact; Monday break above friday high reversed.
Sunday afternoon's push out of the weekend range cleared the 83,430 friday high and reached the 84,258 monday high in Monday's Asia session. London faded it, and the NY session extended the slide to the 82,264 monday low around hawkish Hammack remarks and a firmly bid USD (DXY ~102.35). The late-NY rebound has lifted RSI(14) back to ~50 and price above the 50% fib of the Friday-to-Monday advance at 82,887. Price is pinned at EMA(20) near 83,020 and just below the ema50 near 83,140, with the higher-lows line from the 81,515 friday low still intact.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 83,430 friday high would undo the false break read and put the 84,258 monday high back in focus
Rejection at the ema50 near 83,140 would leave a lower high beneath the monday high
Loss of the 82,264 monday low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 81,515 friday low
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6% MoM / 3.7% YoY); a hot print with further DXY gains could materially shift this read
20:04 UTC
Rally from Thursday reversed, deep pullback · RSI 39 · price 82,810.80
False break above weekend top, lower low at 82264.
BTC climbed from Thursday's 81487 low, broke the 83190 weekend top in a Sunday afternoon spike and set a swing high at 84258 into Monday's London open. A rejection followed through London and NY, as a bid USD, risk-off flows and Hammack's hawkish remarks weighed. The drop cut through the rising trendline and briefly below the fib 61.8 of the rally (82546), printing a Monday low at 82264. A late-NY bounce has price back near 82810, still below the EMA(20) around 82990, with RSI(14) recovering from the low 30s.
Support: 82,546.00, 82,264.00, 81,487.00
Resistance: 82,990.00, 83,190.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 83190 weekend top would neutralise the false-break read
Failure to hold the 82264 monday low confirms a lower-low and exposes the thursday low at 81487
EMA(20) near 82990 capping the bounce keeps the Monday sell-off structure intact
Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday's 84258 top, testing Friday's swing low.
Sunday evening's push through the 83190 weekend high ran to 84258 early Monday, then was rejected. The move unwound through London and accelerated into the NY open, as USD demand built in thin holiday trade on Iran and French debt worries. Price has posted lower highs since and sits below the ema20 and the 61.8% fib of the Thursday–Monday advance. The Monday low at 82264 is now holding just above Friday's 82202 low, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 82,264.40, 82,202.47, 81,487.26
Resistance: 82,546.00, 82,950.00, 83,190.38
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 61.8% fib at 82546 and the ema20 near 82950 would break the Monday lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the monday low at 82264 and the friday low at 82202 exposes the thu low at 81487
Recapture of the 83190 weekend high would neutralise the false break read
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; DXY gains beyond 102.35 remain a headwind
Lower highs from 84,258 week high, price at 61.8% of week rally.
BTC climbed from Thursday's 81,309 low to a week high of 84,258 in Monday's Asia session. The Sunday break above the weekend high has since fully unwound as a firm USD and risk-off flows weighed. Selling began at the London open and accelerated into the NY open, taking price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) to the 61.8% fib of the week's rally near 82,436, with the day low at 82,300 tested twice under a lower high at 82,869; RSI(14) near 30 reflects the one-way slide, and the Friday low at 82,202 is the next reference below.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82,869 lower high would break the sequence of lower highs since the week high
Failure to hold the 82,300 day low exposes the Friday low at 82,202 and the Thursday base near 81,309
Reclaiming the weekend high at 83,190 would put price back inside the prior range and above EMA(20)
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
Lower highs since Monday peak, back below weekend range.
Monday's push to the 84258 week high around London open was rejected. The selloff into the London-NY transition erased Sunday's breakout and dropped BTC back below the weekend range low near 82720 and under EMA(20). The 82302 day low sits on the 50% retracement of the Thursday-to-Monday advance, with RSI(14) near 35 and a run of lower highs since the peak. The slide tracks a firm USD, with French debt and Iran-driven haven demand adding pressure ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 82,302.00, 82,202.00, 81,880.00
Resistance: 82,720.00, 83,125.00, 83,599.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 82302 day low and the 82202 friday low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 61.8% fib near 81880.
Reclaiming the 82720 range low and EMA(20) near 83125 would break the lower highs line from the 84258 peak.
A return above the weekly open at 83599 would negate Monday's rejection.
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read through the USD channel.
Sunday's break above the 82700–83190 weekend range top ran to a week high at 84258 early in London on Monday. The move reversed through the session, and the Monday drop accelerated into the London-NY transition, erasing the breakout and tagging 82302, just above the 82202 Friday low, as a firm USD and risk-off French debt and Iran headlines weighed in thin holiday liquidity. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 83200, which aligns with the range top, with RSI(14) near 38 and hourly highs stepping lower since the 84258 peak.
Support: 82,302.00, 82,202.00
Resistance: 83,190.00, 83,685.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 83190 range top and EMA(20) would neutralise the false-break read
Failure to hold the 82302 Monday low and the 82202 Friday low would confirm a lower low below Friday's base
Reclaiming the 83685 weekly open would put the lower highs sequence from 84258 in question
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could move USD and this read ahead of Wed 12:30 UTC CPI
Lower highs since Monday's peak; weekend range floor broken.
The week opened at 83685 (weekly open) and pushed to an 84258 week high by London open. Price has since printed a sequence of lower highs, with the heaviest leg at the London-NY transition cutting through the weekend 82720–83100 range floor to a 82302 session low. The firm USD and French-debt risk-off backdrop fits the move, and US holiday liquidity is thin. Price now sits below the EMA(20) near 83255 with RSI(14) in the mid-30s, and is retracing between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Thursday-low-to-week-high advance.
Support: 82,302.00, 82,260.00, 81,790.00
Resistance: 82,720.00, 83,255.00, 83,685.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 82720 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 82302 session low exposes the 50% fib at 82260 and Friday's 82200 base, then the 61.8% fib near 81790
A break of the lower-highs trendline from the week high, plus a reclaim of the ema20 near 83255, would neutralise the pullback read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift USD tone ahead of Wed 12:30 UTC CPI
Weekend breakout reversed; price back inside the 82.7k–83.2k range.
Sunday's NY-hours break above the weekend range top near 83,190 ran to a week high of 84,258 early Monday, then unwound from the London open and accelerated into the NY session to a 82,377 session low. Price now sits back inside the range, below EMA(20) near 83,370 and EMA(50) near 83,240, with RSI(14) at 40. The reversal lines up with the firm-USD, risk-off backdrop on thin US-holiday volume and turns the weekend move into a false break.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82,377 session low exposes the Friday low at 82,202
H1 close back above the 83,190 range top and EMA(20) near 83,370 would negate the false break read
Monday drop fib 38.2% near 83,096 sits just under the range top; rejection there keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Hammack (today 16:50 UTC) and Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Wed CPI
Sunday range breakout fully reversed; price back below the weekend range and the 38.2% retracement.
Sunday afternoon's breakout above the 83,190 weekend top extended to a week high of 84,258 in early London today. Supply then capped price, and the London-session sell-off has fully unwound the move, taking BTC under the weekend range, below EMA20 (~83,450) and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 35. The drop coincided with revived haven USD demand on Middle East headlines in holiday-thinned trade. Price now sits at the 82,551 session low, below the 38.2% retracement (~82,730) of the 80,264–84,258 move, with the 50% level (~82,260) aligning with the 82,202 Friday low.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82,551 session low exposes the Friday low / 50% fib zone at 82,202–82,260
H1 close below 82,202 opens the path to the 61.8% fib near 81,790
Recovery above the 83,190 weekend top would undercut the false-break read; EMA20 near 83,450 is the first test above
Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC today) and Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger structural risk
12:05 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 48 · price 83,405.15
Higher lows since Thursday's low; pullback testing the Sunday breakout base.
BTC has carved higher lows since Thursday's NY-session flush to 80,264. A Sunday-afternoon impulse lifted it out of the 82,720–83,190 weekend range, and the Asia session extended the move to an 84,258 week high. London open then reversed roughly 1,000 off the top, leaving price below EMA(20) near 83,570 and the 83,685 week open, but just above EMA(50). It is now testing the 83,210 double low from Sunday night and this morning, with RSI(14) back near 48. A firm, haven-bid USD and thin US-holiday trade frame the pullback ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 83,210 double low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 38.2% fib of the Thursday-to-Monday advance near 82,730
Below that, the 82,200 friday low lines up with the 50% retracement of the week's move
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 83,685 week open would put the 84,258 week high back in play
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift USD and this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.7% y/y, 0.6% m/m) is the main event risk for the week's range
Higher lows intact; rejection from 84,258 week high.
Higher lows have held since Thursday's NY-session flush to 80,264. A Sunday-afternoon break of the 82,720 range low to 83,190 weekend range carried price to an 84,258 week high around Monday's London open, but on a lower RSI(14) peak than the 84,110 prior high. The drop back below EMA(20) near 83,570 leaves price resting on EMA(50) near 83,330, with the 83,210 swing low and higher-lows trendline just beneath, as thin holiday trade and a firm USD sit ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 83,210 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 82,720 range low, near the 38.2% fib
Reclaiming EMA(20) and a close above the 84,260 week high would negate the bearish RSI divergence
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:05 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after breakout · RSI 48 · price 83,453.10
Higher lows since Thursday; breakout retest at 83,210.
Sunday's NY-hours breakout from the 82,720–83,190 weekend range extended the Thursday-to-Monday impulse off 80,264 to a monday high at 84,258 in Asia. The London open then dropped about $490, back below the weekly open at 83,875 and the EMA(20) near 83,590. RSI(14) has slipped to the high-40s, while the 83,210 retest low has held on two tests, Sunday evening and this morning, with price still above the EMA(50) near 83,270 and the rising trendline. A firm USD and thin holiday volumes ahead of Wednesday's CPI are capping follow-through for now.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 83,210 retest low breaks the higher-low sequence and the rising trendline, exposing the weekend low at 82,720 near the 38.2% fib
Reclaim of the EMA(20) and the 83,875 weekly open would restore the breakout structure toward the 84,258 monday high
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift USD and yields before Wednesday's CPI
09:07 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 49 · price 83,443.11
Higher lows since Thursday, retest of Friday high.
BTC has carved higher lows since Thursday's NY-session flush to 80,264, and Sunday's thin-liquidity push cleared the Friday high at 83,430 before extending to a week high of 84,258 in Asia hours today. That week high met rejection into London open, where a single bar erased about $490 and put price back below EMA(20) near 83,650, now retesting the Friday high and the higher-lows trendline. RSI(14) has cooled from the 60s to near 49. With BTC-specific news stale and US markets on holiday, the move reads as positioning drift ahead of Wednesday's US CPI rather than news-driven.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 (~83,650) keeps the higher-lows uptrend read intact; a reclaim of the 84,109 sunday high and the 84,258 week high extends it
Failure to hold the friday high at 83,430 and the higher-lows trendline shifts focus to the 83,208 swing low
A break of the 83,208 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 82,202 friday low near the 50% fib
Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC today) and Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could move USD and hike pricing in thin holiday trade
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% YoY) is the main catalyst that could reset this structure
Higher lows since Thursday low; weekend range broken and retested.
Since Thursday's NY-hours flush to 80,264, price has stacked higher lows. A Sunday-afternoon impulse broke the flat 82,450–83,190 weekend range, and the Sunday-evening dip held that range top near 83,200. The Asia session on Monday extended to a week high at 84,258 before fading back toward EMA(20) near 83,660, with RSI(14) cooling to the high 50s. The advance came in thin weekend and holiday liquidity with no fresh BTC-specific news, while firm-USD and hawkish-Fed macro remains a headwind in the background.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the higher-lows line and 83,400 would break Monday's higher-low sequence
Loss of the 83,200 range top puts price back inside the weekend range and below the 23.6% level of the Thu-Mon impulse (~83,315)
Close above the 84,258 week high opens the path toward the 85,000 round number
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift USD and yields; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger catalyst for this read
BTC has retraced Thursday's NY-session flush to 80,264 and put in a steady higher-low sequence. Sunday's push broke the 82,450–83,190 weekend range, and the dip to the 83,208 swing low held near the old range top before price printed a new week high at 84,235 this morning. RSI(14) is near 59 and price sits above ema20 and the rising lows line, with the move made in thin weekend liquidity despite Friday's stagflationary Michigan mix (sentiment miss, 1y inflation expectations 4.7%).
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising lows line near 83,490 would break the higher-low sequence
Failure to hold the 83,208 swing low puts price back inside the weekend range and fails the breakout
Acceptance above the 84,235 week high opens the 85,000 round number, with the 86k pivot beyond
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift hike pricing and the USD
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) is the key catalyst for this read
Higher highs and higher lows; weekend range broken and retested.
Since Thursday's NY-session flush to 80264, BTC has stepped up along rising support. Sunday afternoon's break of the 82700–83190 weekend range carried to 84109, the dip to 83208 held the range top, and Monday's Asia session set a 4-day high at 84181 after a further higher low at 83401. Price sits above EMA(20) near 83600 with RSI(14) in the high 50s. With no fresh BTC-specific news and a firm USD and hawkish-Fed backdrop, the advance has run on thin weekend and Asia liquidity, and the 85000 round number above remains untested.
Support: 83,401.15, 83,190.38
Resistance: 84,181.29, 85,000.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84181 4-day high opens the 85000 round number
Failure to hold the 83400 higher low breaks the rising support line
H1 close back below the 83190 range top returns price to the weekend range and exposes the 38.2% recovery fib near 82685
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) ahead of Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
The week low printed at 80,264 in Thursday's NY session. Since then price has built a higher-low sequence, compressing into an 82,720–83,190 range through the thin weekend before Sunday afternoon's break set an 84,109 week high. The retest held at 83,208, just above the old range top and at the 23.6% fib of the 80,264–84,109 leg, and the Asia session has pressed back to 84,000 with price above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 60. Friday's Michigan miss and firmer inflation expectations left little lasting mark, and the breakout came on weekend liquidity rather than fresh BTC news.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84,109 week high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 85,000 round number
Failure to hold the 83,200 range top would mark the weekend breakout as a false break back toward the 82,720 range low
A break of the higher-low trendline from Thursday's low shifts the read from uptrend to range
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC), ahead of Wednesday's US CPI, could materially shift this read
04:06 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after breakout · RSI 57 · price 83,499.04
Higher lows since Thursday; breakout above prior high now being retested.
After Thursday's NY-hours flush to 80264, BTC has printed higher lows. The weekend range broke Sunday afternoon, clearing Friday's 83430 prior high and tagging the 84109 week high. The pullback found 83208, almost exactly the 23.6% retrace of the Thursday low–Sunday high move. Monday's Asia session capped at a lower 83941 Monday high, and price now sits on EMA(20) near 83476, just above the prior high, with RSI(14) cooled to the high 50s. With BTC news stale and liquidity thin, the move is chart-led against a firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop.
Support: 83,430.00, 83,208.00, 82,720.00
Resistance: 83,685.00, 83,941.00, 84,109.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 83430 prior high undercuts the breakout and exposes the 83208 swing low
Loss of 83208 breaks rising support from the weekend low and reopens 82720
Recovery of the 83685 weekly open, then a close above the 84109 week high, would resume the higher-high sequence
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC), Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Thursday's NY-session flush to 80,264 has been fully retraced through a sequence of higher lows. The tape compressed into a Saturday range capped near 83,190, then broke higher Sunday afternoon to a week high of 84,109. The pullback that followed found a retest low at 83,208, the old range top and the 23.6% fib of the week's impulse, and has since printed a lower high at 83,940. Price holds above EMA(20) near 83,486 with RSI(14) around 61, but the breakout came on thin weekend liquidity with no fresh BTC news, while the USD stays firm on a hawkish Fed read.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 83,208 retest low puts price back inside the weekend range and opens the weekend low at 82,722
A move through the 83,940 lower high and the 84,109 week high would extend the higher-low sequence; the digest's 86k pivot is the next reference above
Loss of EMA(20) near 83,486 on a closing basis would show the post-breakout pullbacks failing to hold
Return of London and NY session liquidity Monday could test whether the weekend breakout holds
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC, f/c 3.7% y/y) could materially shift this read
Thursday's NY-session selloff to 80,264 was fully reversed, and a series of higher lows led into a thin weekend range of roughly 82,450–83,190. Sunday's break of that range top printed the week high at 84,109. The pullback to 83,208 held just above the old range top, and price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) in the low 60s. The Asia session then left a lower high at 83,941 before dipping to the 83,376 Asia low. There is no fresh BTC news and the USD is firm, so the weekend move has come on thin liquidity rather than a clear catalyst.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 83,208 pullback low puts price back toward the 83,190 range top and the weekend range
Failure to hold the 83,376 Asia low keeps the lower-high sequence below 83,941 intact
H1 close above the 84,109 week high resumes the range-break leg
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:08 UTC
Uptrend, pressing back toward the Sunday high · RSI 69 · price 83,885.62
Higher lows since Thursday's flush; weekend range broken Sunday, first pullback held.
Thursday's NY-session flush to 80,264 has been fully retraced. Higher lows have stacked from Friday through the weekend, and a Sunday-afternoon range break carried price out of the 82,720–83,190 weekend band to the 84,109 Sunday high. The first pullback held the 23.6% fib at the 83,208 swing low, and price is now pressing back toward that high with RSI(14) near 69 and closes above both EMA(20) and EMA(50), in thin weekend liquidity and against a firm USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84,109 sunday high extends the higher-highs sequence and opens the path to the 85,000 psych level
Failure to hold the 83,208 swing low breaks the higher lows trendline and targets the 38.2% fib near 82,640
Acceptance back below the 83,430 friday high reopens the weekend range toward the 82,722 range low
Thin weekend-to-Monday liquidity can exaggerate wicks at either extreme
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) ahead of Wed US CPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BTC has printed higher lows since Thursday's NY-session flush to 80,264. It then compressed over the weekend in a 82,720–83,190 range before Sunday afternoon's range break ran to a 84,109 week high. The pullback held the 83,208 swing low, a retest of the range top at the 23.6% fib of the Thursday–Sunday impulse, and price sits above a rising EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 63. With no fresh crypto news and thin weekend liquidity, the push lacks a clear macro driver ahead of Wednesday's US CPI.
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 83,190 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 83,208 swing low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 82,720 range low and the 38.2% fib near 82,640
Close above the 83,830 lower high reopens the 84,109 week high
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6%) could materially shift this read; thin weekend liquidity can exaggerate wicks