21:09 UTC
Uptrend since August, momentum stalling under a double top · RSI 49 · price 82,322.34
HH/HL chain from mid-August intact above 80,264; double top at 87k with the 82,566 neckline under retest.
The uptrend dates from the mid-August breakout out of the 62,200–66,900 summer range. Higher lows sit at 74,903 (sept low) and 80,264 (oct low), and price holds above a rising ema50 near 79,630. The 87,273 September cycle high and the 86,866 lower high on Oct 5 form a double top; the Oct 7–8 drop after hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD broke the 82,566 neckline, and the weekly bounce has stalled back below the ema20 at 83,080. RSI near 49 has fully reset, and the oct low sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the sept leg fib.
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 80,264 oct low confirms the double top and exposes the ema50 / 61.8% sept leg fib confluence near 79,630
- Daily close back above the ema20 at 83,080 and the 82,566 neckline would weaken the double top read and put the 86,866 lower high back in focus
- US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6% MoM, 3.7% YoY) could materially shift this read; a hot print with DXY extending beyond 102.35 is the flagged downside risk
- A break of the 74,903 sept low and the higher lows trendline would end the HH/HL chain that began in August