Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1497 mid-Sep peak.
The lower-high sequence from 1.1497 is intact, stepping down through 1.1410, 1.1380, 1.1285 and 1.1276 to 1.1211. The hot US CPI print broke the prior low at 1.1151 and set a new swing low at 1.1113. The latest bar has recovered to retest 1.1151 from below, with price under both EMAs (EMA20 below EMA50). ATR(14) near 24 pips sits below the early-October expansion, and the bounce faces the fib 38.2 at 1.1175 and the lower-high line near 1.1211.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1175, 1.1211, 1.1276
What it said to watch
Thu US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H4 close back below the 1.1151 prior low turns the retest into rejection and exposes the 1.1113 swing low and the 1.1100 round number
Close above the 1.1211 lower high breaks the lower-high line and puts the 1.1276 swing high back in view
Hold above the fib 38.2 at 1.1175 would mark the bounce as more than a one-bar reaction
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending to new lows · RSI 31 · price 1.11221
Lower highs and lower lows; 1.1151-1.1165 base broken.
Lower highs have stepped down from 1.1498 through 1.1276 and the 1.1211 lower high, and the 1.1151-1.1165 base that held three times over the past week gave way after the hot US CPI. The CPI bar was a 71-pip range, more than three times the 22-pip ATR(14), and price now sits near the 1.1113 cycle low below both EMAs. RSI near 31 sits just above oversold, and the round number at 1.1100 is the next reference below.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1151, 1.1211, 1.1276
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 1.1151 prior low would mark the base break as a false break
The descending trendline and fib 61.8% near 1.1211-1.1214 cap the lower-high sequence; a close above them breaks the downtrend structure
A clearance of the 1.1276 swing high would mark a higher high and invalidate the downtrend read
A failure to hold the 1.1113 cycle low exposes the 1.1100 round number
US Retail Sales and PPI (Thu 12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
EZ CPI prints on Oct 15-16 and Nagel's remarks are secondary risk for the read
Lower highs pressing onto a flat 1.1151-1.1165 base.
The September slide from 1.1535 has slowed into lower highs at the 1.1276 swing high, the 1.1243 prior high and the 1.1211 lower high. These are pressing onto a flat base between the 1.1165 prior low and the 1.1151 17m low, a descending-triangle shape, while ATR(14) has compressed to about 18 pips from 30+ in late September. The latest bounce met rejection at the lower-high trendline, just short of the 50% fib of the 1.1276-1.1151 leg. Price is now sitting on a flat EMA20 and below the EMA50, with the hot US core CPI keeping USD supported.
Support: 1.1165, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 1.1151 17m low extends the lower-low sequence out of the compression
A close above the 1.1211 lower high and the trendline breaks the descending-triangle read, with the 1.1243 prior high next
Failure to hold the 1.1165 prior low puts the 1.1151 17m low straight back in play
Fed's Bowman and the Beige Book today, then US PPI and retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum slowing near the lows · RSI 47 · price 1.11984
Lower highs since mid-September; basing 1.1151–1.1170 under a falling trendline.
Lower highs run from 1.1545 down to the 17m low at 1.1151, and October price action has compressed into a base around the 1.1151–1.1165 prior lows. Price is pressing the descending trendline from the 1.1285 swing high near 1.1211. It sits at the 38.2% retracement of that leg. The bounce is USD-led as yields ease into US CPI rather than driven by EUR demand. ATR(14) near 17-18 pips is well down from the early-October expansion. Price holds just above EMA20, but EMA20 remains below EMA50.
Support: 1.1165, 1.1151, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1243, 1.1285
What it said to watch
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT, with core m/m the swing factor, could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 1.1211 trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1243 lower high and the 50–61.8% fib zone
Rejection at the trendline keeps the downtrend intact; failure below the 1.1165 prior lows and 1.1151 17m low exposes the 1.1100 round number
A reclaim of the EMA50 alongside a bullish EMA cross would mark the first swing-level shift since September
Lower highs from 1.1285; fresh swing low at 1.1151.
Lower-high sequence intact from the 1.1285 range top through the 1.1243 lower high. The new swing low at 1.1151 came on the EUR slide to 17-month lows. The current bounce is driven by USD correction rather than euro demand, and has carried price back above the ema20 near 1.1190 to the 38.2% retracement of the 1.1285–1.1151 leg, while EMA20 remains below EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 19 pips from 30+ earlier in the window, so ranges are tight heading into event risk.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1243, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1243 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1285 range top in play
Rejection at the descending lower-high trendline near 1.1240 keeps the downtrend structure intact
Loss of the ema20 around 1.1190 opens a retest of the 1.1151 swing low; a close below it confirms a lower low
US Sept CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; core at 0.4% m/m or above vs 0.2% f/c is the USD-positive threshold
Lagarde at 08:30 UTC and French fiscal headlines can cap or extend the bounce
Lower highs since Oct 2, lows compressing near 1.1151.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since the 1.1285 swing high on Oct 2. Swing lows are compressing into the 1.1151–1.1163 band, a falling-wedge shape, while ATR(14) has slipped to about 20 pips from the 40–80 pip bars earlier in the month. The bounce off the 17-month low at 1.1151 has come on a softer USD rather than euro demand and is stalling at the 38.2% fib near 1.1204, with price just above EMA20 but still capped under EMA50, which sits below the declining EMA20/EMA50 alignment.
Support: 1.1163, 1.1151, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1243, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H4 close above the wedge top and the 1.1243 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1163 swing lows and the 1.1151 17m low through the wedge base extends the downtrend toward the 1.1100 round number
Lagarde today and US CPI Wednesday (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read