21:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stretched · RSI 31 · price 1.11985
Lower highs and lower lows since late-August peak; base forming above 1.1151.
The downtrend has run since the late-August peak at 1.1711. A lower high at 1.1654 in early September preceded the 1 October break through the July range and the june low near 1.1324, and price now sits below a falling EMA(50). The last two weeks have compressed into a 1.1151–1.1276 band. Tuesday's bounce off the 1.1151 swing low stalled near 1.1200 as the hot US CPI print revived Fed-hike pricing. RSI near 30 shows stretched downside momentum after a roughly 560-pip slide.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1324, 1.1431
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.1276 oct high breaks the lower-high sequence; the june low at 1.1324 is the next former-support test
- Failure to hold the 1.1151 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low, exposing the 1.1100 round number
- Recovery to the 50% retrace at 1.1431, near the falling EMA(50), would mark a deeper correction of the Aug–Oct leg
- Thu US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims (12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read