EUR/USD AI Live Scan, daily chart, Thursday, 15 October 2026

Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.

21:01 UTC

Downtrend, momentum fading near the lows · RSI 35 · price 1.12082

LH/LL chain from the 1.1711 August high; two-week base at 1.1113–1.1165.

Seven-week downtrend from the 1.1711 high on Aug 21. A lower high at 1.1654 on Sep 9 preceded the Sep 30 range break below the July low near 1.1353, which sits with the 38.2% fib as the fib/july low cap at 1.1345. Price is below a falling EMA(50), and since early October the decline has stalled into a consolidation between the oct lows at 1.1152, the 1.1113 swing low and the oct highs near 1.1242. Thursday's rebound from the 1.1113 swing low came on falling US yields rather than euro strength, as the dollar faded hot PPI and retail sales beats, with RSI recovering from near-oversold readings.

Support: 1.1152, 1.1113, 1.1000

Resistance: 1.1242, 1.1285, 1.1345

What it said to watch

  • Fed Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) is the main catalyst; a hawkish lean could push yields and DXY back above 102.00 and pressure the oct lows
  • Fri 09:00 UTC eurozone inflation batch (core HICP f/c 2.5% y/y) could shift ECB December pricing
  • Daily close above the 1.1285 prior high would break the lower-high sequence and expose the fib/july low at 1.1345
  • Daily close below the 1.1113 swing low resumes the lower-low chain toward the 1.1000 round number
  • Repeated failure at the oct highs near 1.1242 keeps the base read intact within the downtrend

17:18 UTC

Downtrend since late August, momentum stalling · RSI 35 · price 1.12105

Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1711; two-week base forming above 1.1113.

EURUSD has carried a lower-high, lower-low chain since the 21 Aug 1.1711 peak. The 9 Sep lower high at 1.1654 preceded the mid-September breakdown below 1.1460, and price has stayed beneath a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50) ever since. Over the last two weeks the decline has compressed into a 1.1113–1.1285 consolidation, with closes repeatedly holding the 1.1152 range floor area. Thursday's roughly 0.5% bounce came on sliding US yields despite the hot PPI, and it is pressing the descending cap of that range near 1.1240 with RSI in the mid-30s, not oversold.

Support: 1.1152, 1.1113

Resistance: 1.1285, 1.1341, 1.1460

What it said to watch

  • Daily close above the 1.1285 range top ends the two-week consolidation and opens the 38.2% fib of the Aug–Oct decline near 1.1341
  • Close below the 1.1113 swing low extends the lower-low chain and invalidates the base read
  • Lower-high sequence intact while price holds below the 1.1460 breakdown level and the late-August downtrend line
  • Fed Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) and euro-area core HICP (Fri 09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields

All markets that day · Today’s EUR/USD Live Scan in the terminal