Post-CPI V-reversal into a tightening range, lower highs vs higher lows.
Wednesday's hot-CPI drop in NY broke Monday's 1.1151 low to a 1.1113 week low, then fully reversed into Thursday's Asia session to a 1.1240 week high as US yields slid and DXY lost 102.00. Since then price has compressed between lower highs at the 1.1230 london high and 1.1224 and higher lows. The post-PPI dip in the first hour of NY was rejected at the 1.1188 ppi low, near the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse. Price sits just above ema20 at 1.1213 with RSI(14) flat near 53.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC (06:30 broker) is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.1188 ppi low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 50% fib near 1.1177
H1 close above the 1.1230 london high and 1.1240 week high ends the lower-high sequence
EZ HICP batch Fri 09:00 GMT; an in-line print leaves the USD/yields leg driving price
Return toward the 1.1113 week low would put Wednesday's false break in question
V-reversal from Wednesday's CPI low, now coiling below the week high.
The hot US CPI print knocked EUR/USD to a 1.1113 week low in Wednesday's NY session. The pair then reversed through Asia hours to a 1.1241 week high as US yields fell. Since then H1 has carved lower highs (1.1241, 1.1230, the 1.1224 NY high) against higher lows. Thursday's hot PPI dip to the 1.1188 ppi low found demand near the 38.2% retracement of the rally, leaving a pennant above the weekly open at 1.1196. Price holds just above the ema20 with RSI(14) flat in the low-50s.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1196, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1241
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC, about 5.5h away, and could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.1224 ny high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1241 week high back in focus
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 1.1196 weekly open, then the 1.1188 ppi low, breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 50% fib near 1.1177
Fri 09:00 UTC Eurozone inflation batch (core HICP f/c 2.5% y/y) is a second event risk inside the next session
Post-CPI V-recovery, compressing between 1.1188 and lower highs.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print knocked the pair to a 1.1113 week low in the NY session. That move was a false break of Monday's 1.1151 low, and it reversed into a roughly 127-pip Asia-session rally to the 1.1240 week high as Treasury yields fell. Since then H1 has compressed under a line of lower highs at 1.1230, 1.1224 and 1.1220, while the PPI dip at Thursday's NY open held the 1.1188 Thu low near the 38.2% retracement; price sits above the EMA(20) at 1.1206 and clear of the 1.1184 weekly open, with RSI(14) flat near 55.
Support: 1.1206, 1.11883, 1.11842
Resistance: 1.12241, 1.12405
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1224 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 1.1240 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1188 Thu low exposes the weekly open at 1.1184 and the 50% retracement near 1.1177
Repeated H1 closes back below the EMA(20) at 1.1206 would mark the lower-highs line as dominant
Fed Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) is the main catalyst; a hawkish lean on hot CPI/PPI could unwind the yield-driven rebound
Fri 09:00 UTC Eurozone inflation batch (core HICP f/c 2.5%) could materially shift this read
V-shaped rebound from the CPI week low; lower highs since Thursday's Asia peak, lows holding near 1.1188.
The week opened at 1.1184 and slid through Monday's London and NY sessions. Wednesday's hot US CPI then flushed price through Monday's low to a 1.1113 week low, and the move fully reversed into Thursday's Asia session to a 1.1241 week high as Treasury yields fell. Since then each hour has printed lower highs: 1.1230 London high, 1.1224 and 1.1220. The PPI low at 1.1188 held near the 38.2% retrace, and price is sitting just above EMA(20) at 1.1205 with RSI(14) around 54.
Support: 1.1205, 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1188 PPI low breaks the 38.2% retrace hold and puts the 1.1177 50% level and the 1.1184 weekly open back in play
H1 close above the lower highs line near 1.1220 would end the consolidation read and reopen the 1.1230 London high and 1.1241 week high
Sustained trade under EMA(20) at 1.1205 and the 1.1200 figure shifts the read toward a deeper retrace of the rebound from the week low
Fed Chair Warsh, Fri 03:30 UTC, is the main catalyst; a hawkish read that lifts yields could unwind the post-CPI rebound
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC today and the Fri 09:00 UTC eurozone inflation batch could materially shift this read
V-shaped rebound from Wed low, range 1.1188–1.1241 since Thursday Asia.
Monday-Wednesday printed lower highs from 1.1217, and the week low came at 1.1113 into Wednesday's NY session on broad USD strength that has since unwound. Falling US yields drove Thursday's Asia-session breakout to the 1.1241 week high, and price has ranged below the 1.1230 London high since. Hot US PPI and retail sales pushed price only to the 1.1188 NY low, near the 38.2% fib of the rebound, and demand returned there. Price is back above EMA(20) near 1.1206, with RSI(14) at 57 and the higher-lows trendline intact.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC (~8h); Hammack at 20:30 UTC precedes it. Either could materially shift this read.
H1 close above the 1.1241 week high extends the breakout; repeated failure below the 1.1230 London high keeps the range read
Loss of the 1.1188 NY low and the 38.2% fib breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.1184 weekly open
EZ inflation prints Fri 09:00 GMT, with the week low at 1.1113 as the deeper reference if the rebound unwinds
Holding EMA(20) on pullbacks keeps the post-breakout consolidation intact
18:02 UTC
Rebound from mid-week low, stalling below week high · RSI 57 · price 1.12139
V-shaped recovery; Thursday range 1.1188–1.1241 with lower highs.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print drove a NY-session flush to the 1.1113 week low, a false break of the Monday low that reversed as Treasury yields slid. The rebound ran from that CPI low to the 1.1241 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Since then highs have stepped lower (1.1230, then the 1.1224 lower high). The PPI/retail-sales dip held the 1.1188 ppi low near the 38.2% fib and recovered above EMA(20) at 1.1204, consistent with the digest's note that the dollar faded its data-driven bounce. RSI(14) near 57 sits mid-range as price coils between the ppi low and the lower-high line.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1188, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1241
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1224 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence and puts the 1.1241 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1188 ppi low exposes the weekly open at 1.1184 and the 50% fib near 1.1177
A return below the 1.1151 monday low would negate the false-break read
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this yield-driven read
17:02 UTC
Recovered higher, stalling under week high · RSI 52 · price 1.1203
V-recovery from week low, now lower highs above 1.1190.
Wednesday's USD spike was a false break below Monday's 1.1151 low to a 1.1113 week low. It was fully reversed into Thursday's Asia session as US yields slid, carrying price to a 1.1241 week high. Since then Thursday has printed lower highs at 1.1230 and 1.1224, while the faded hot-PPI dip to 1.1188 held the 38.2% fib, which sits alongside EMA(50) near 1.1192. Price is now flat on EMA(20) at 1.1202 with RSI(14) back to 52, above the weekly open at 1.1184.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1192, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1241
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 38.2% fib / EMA(50) zone near 1.1192 exposes the weekly open at 1.1184 and the 50% retracement near 1.1177
Close above the 1.1224 lower high breaks the descending-highs line and re-exposes the 1.1241 week high
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read via a US yield rebound
Fri 09:00 UTC euro-area inflation batch (core HICP f/c 2.5% y/y) adds event risk around the 1.1200 handle
V-recovery from the CPI low capped by lower highs under the 1.12405 week high.
Wednesday's NY-session CPI drop to the 1.11128 week low was fully reversed by Thursday's Asia session, which printed the 1.12405 week high as US yields slid to three-week lows. Since then H1 has carved lower highs, and today's PPI spike to the 1.11883 ppi low was bought back. A rejection at the 1.12241 lower high during NY hours has price back on the 1.1200 handle, just under ema20 and sitting on the recovery line from the week low, with RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 1.11883, 1.11842, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.12241, 1.12405
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.11883 ppi low breaks the recovery line and exposes the 1.11842 weekly open near the 38.2% fib
H1 close back above ema20 and the 1.12241 lower high reopens the 1.12405 week high
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC; a hawkish tilt lifting US yields could materially shift this read
Fri 09:00 UTC euro-area inflation prints and Hammack at 20:30 UTC today are secondary event risk
15:01 UTC
V-shaped rebound, now compressing · RSI 60 · price 1.12187
Post-CPI recovery, lower highs above 1.1200.
Wednesday's NY session hot US CPI flushed the pair 70 pips to the 1.1113 week low. The move was fully reversed through Thursday's Asia session into a 1.1241 week high as Treasury yields slid to three-week lows. Price has since compressed beneath a lower high at 1.1230, while today's PPI spike to the 1.1188 PPI low was rejected near the 38.2% rebound fib and reclaimed the EMA(20) and 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) holding around 60.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1188 PPI low breaks the rebound lows trendline and exposes the 50% fib near 1.1177
Close above the 1.1230 lower high reopens the 1.1241 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number would end the compression read
Fed Chair Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC and the 09:00 UTC EZ CPI batch could materially shift this read
From the 1.1184 weekly open, Monday's slide and Wednesday's hot-CPI drop to the 1.1113 week low were both reversed. The post-CPI rebound ran from late NY Wednesday into Thursday's Asia session and printed the 1.1240 week high on broad USD weakness. Since then H1 has carved lower highs at 1.1230 and 1.1228 while holding the 1.1200 pivot and EMA(20), with RSI(14) easing to the high 50s; the 12:30 GMT hot PPI/retail sales spike wicked to the 1.1188 ppi low near the 38.2% retracement and saw rejection back above 1.1200 within the bar.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883, 1.11842
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1200 pivot, then the 1.1188 ppi low, breaks the post-CPI higher lows and exposes the 1.1184 weekly open
Close above the 1.1230 lower high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.1240 week high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
V-shaped recovery from week low, now stalling · RSI 59 · price 1.12071
Wednesday's hot US CPI print pushed the pair to a week low at 1.1113 in the NY session, briefly undercutting Monday's 1.1151 low. Sharply lower Treasury yields then drove a 128-pip rebound to the week high at 1.1241 in Thursday's Asia session. London has since printed lower highs under the London high at 1.1230, with price compressing just above the thu low and prior-week close near 1.1200, where EMA(20) also sits, and just below the 23.6% retracement of the rebound.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1184, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
Hot US PPI (6.3% y/y) and a Retail Sales beat just printed; an H1 close below the thu low at 1.1200 would mark the first structural reaction lower
Loss of the 38.2% retracement at 1.1192 and the week open at 1.1184 exposes the 50% level at 1.1177
An H1 close above the London high at 1.1230 breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the week high at 1.1241
A return below 1.1151 would put the week low at 1.1113 back in play
Fed Chair Warsh, Fri 03:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Post-CPI reversal; tight London range of lower highs above 1.1200.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print knocked EUR/USD about 80 pips lower during NY hours to a 1.1113 week low, below Monday's 1.1151 low. That break failed. The pair fully reversed as Treasury yields slid, and the Asia session carried it to a 1.1241 week high, well above the weekly open at 1.1184. Since London open, price has been rotating between a 1.1200 London low and a 1.1230 London high, with lower highs from the week high and RSI(14) back near 54. The pullback has held above the 38.2% fib of the CPI-low-to-week-high leg.
Support: 1.12007, 1.11917, 1.11842
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags a hot batch as the main risk to the 1.1220 recovery
H1 close below the 1.1200 London low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.1192 and the weekly open at 1.1184
Close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1230 London high reopens the 1.1241 week high
V-shaped reversal from post-CPI low, now consolidating under lower highs.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print knocked EURUSD through Monday's low into a 1.11128 week low during NY hours. The break failed as Treasury yields reversed and the USD unwound, and the pair rallied 127 pips through the Asia session to a 1.12405 week high, back above the weekly open and EMA(20). Since then the London low at 1.12007 has held near the 23.6–38.2% retracement of that rally, while the London high at 1.12295 printed a lower high, leaving price consolidating around 1.1215 with RSI(14) easing from the high-60s.
Support: 1.12007, 1.11842, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags a hot print as the main risk to the post-CPI recovery
Hourly close below the 1.12007 london low exposes the 38.2% retracement near 1.1192 and the weekly open at 1.11842
Close above the 1.12295 london high and then the 1.12405 week high breaks the lower-highs line and extends the recovery
Loss of the weekly open would put the 1.11128 week low back in view
10:01 UTC
Sharp recovery from CPI low, now pausing · RSI 56 · price 1.12158
Wednesday's hot US core CPI drove a NY-session drop through the 1.1151 Monday low to a 1.1113 week low. The break failed as Treasury yields slid, and a strong Asia session lifted price to a 1.1241 week high, back above the 1.1184 weekly open. The pullback since has printed higher lows, holding the 1.1200 pullback low just above EMA(20) near 1.1197. London has capped at the 1.1230 london high, and RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s from a ~63 peak.
Support: 1.12007, 1.11842, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.1200 pullback low and EMA(20) breaks the rebound's higher lows and exposes the 38.2% CPI rebound fib near 1.1192 and the 1.1184 weekly open
A close above the 1.1230 london high puts the 1.1241 week high back in play; failure there leaves a lower high
Loss of the 1.1151 monday low would negate the false-break read
V-recovery off post-CPI low; shallow pullback from week high with lower highs.
The hot US CPI print on Wednesday drove EURUSD through Monday's 1.1152 low to a 1.1113 week low in NY hours. The break failed as yields slid, and a near-130-pip rally through the Asia session took out the 1.1184 week open to print a 1.12405 week high. The pullback since has held the 23.6% retracement near the 1.1201 pullback low, with a lower high at 1.1218 capping London open and RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s from overbought.
Support: 1.12007, 1.1194, 1.11842
Resistance: 1.12179, 1.12405
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1218 lower high reopens a test of the 1.12405 week high
Close below the 1.1201 pullback low exposes the 38.2% retracement at 1.1192 and ema20 near 1.1194
Loss of the 1.1184 week open would undo most of the post-CPI recovery and bring the 1.1150 pivot back into view
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
V-reversal from 1.1113 to a 1.1240 week high, lower highs since.
Hot US CPI flushed EUR/USD through the 1.1150 former floor to 1.1113 at the NY open Wednesday. Falling Treasury yields then drove a full reversal through the Asia session to a week high at 1.1240, above Monday's high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs into London open, with demand stepping in near the 1.1200 round number, RSI(14) easing to ~59 from ~72 at the peak, and price holding above EMA(20) near 1.1192, which sits close to the 38.2% retracement of the post-CPI rally, with the weekly open at 1.1184 just below.
Support: 1.12007, 1.11842, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.12172, 1.12405
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read; a hot core PPI print puts the 1.1150 former floor back in play
H1 close below the 1.1200 round number and EMA(20) exposes the weekly open at 1.1184 and the 50% post-CPI rally fib near 1.1177
H1 close above Monday's high at 1.1217 breaks the lower highs sequence and reopens the 1.1240 week high
Friday euro inflation data and Fed Chair Warsh remarks are the next event risk after today's US releases
07:02 UTC
V-shaped recovery, easing off week high · RSI 62 · price 1.12134
False break of 1.1150 reversed into higher high; pullback testing 1.1210.
The hot US CPI print pushed EUR/USD through the 1.1150 old floor to 1.1113 in Wednesday's NY session. A slide in Treasury yields then fully reversed the drop, and the recovery ran through the Asia session to a week high of 1.1240. Price has eased back onto the 1.1210 prior high (Wednesday's pre-CPI top, near the 23.6% of the recovery fib), with RSI(14) cooling to ~61 from 72 at the peak and an upturned EMA(20) near 1.1191 aligned with the 38.2% retracement.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1191, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1233, 1.1240
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1210 prior high exposes the ema20 / 38.2% recovery fib zone near 1.1191
Acceptance above the 1.1233 friday high and 1.1240 week high would extend the higher-high sequence off the CPI low
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read; a hot cluster puts the 1.1150 old floor back in focus
Eurozone Industrial Production at 09:00 GMT is a secondary risk during London hours
Wednesday's hotter US CPI drove a 70-pip flush at the NY open through the 1.1150 floor to a week low at 1.1113. The move fully reversed through late NY and the Asia session as the USD spike unwound, reclaiming the weekly open at 1.1184 and printing a week high at 1.1240 above the Monday high. Price is now easing back into the pre-CPI high at 1.1211 and the Monday high at 1.1217, about a 20% retrace of the recovery leg, with RSI(14) cooling to ~61 and EMA(20) near 1.1189 well below.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1202, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.1240
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, as they decide whether the CPI spike unwind extends
Failure to hold the prior close at 1.1202 and the recovery trendline puts the 38.2% recovery leg fib near 1.1192 in play
H1 close back below the weekly open at 1.1184 and EMA(20) would undo the post-CPI reclaim
Close above the week high at 1.1240 extends the recovery leg beyond the Monday high
05:01 UTC
Sharp V-rebound, stalling at week high · RSI 69 · price 1.12278
False break below 1.1150 reversed into breakout above Monday high.
The pair drifted lower from Monday's 1.1184 open. Wednesday's hot US CPI broke the 1.1150 old floor in the NY session, printing a 1.1113 week low. The break failed: price recovered the move into late NY and the Asia session, cleared the Monday high at 1.1217 and printed a week high at 1.1241, just shy of Friday's 1.1243 top, before a small rejection. RSI(14) has eased to ~69 from 72. EMA20 sits at 1.1186, about 40 pips below price, and the 38.2% fib of the CPI rebound near 1.1192 is just above it.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1186, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the monday high at 1.1217 would undercut the breakout and bring the ema20 near 1.1186 into play
H1 close above the week high at 1.1241 clears Friday's 1.1243 top and opens the 1.1250 round number
A break of the rebound higher lows and the 1.1192 fib would expose the 1.1151 old floor
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read; Eurozone CPI at 06:45 UTC comes first
04:01 UTC
Sharp V-shaped recovery, breaking out of the week's downtrend · RSI 71 · price 1.12354
False break below 1.1155 floor, then breakout above Monday's high.
The hot US CPI print yesterday broke the 1.1155 prior floor during the NY session and drove price to a 1.1113 CPI low. That drop was fully reversed through the Asia session, and price has cleared the 1.1211 pre-CPI cap and the Monday high at 1.1217, with the largest bullish bars printing in the last three hours. Price now sits well above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 71. Last Friday's high at 1.1242 and the 1.1250 round number sit directly overhead.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1155, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1242, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the Monday high at 1.1217 would mark the breakout as failed and return price to this week's range
A close above the 1.1250 round number clears the Friday high and extends the post-CPI rally structure
A break of the rebound higher-lows line, then failure to hold the 1.1155 prior floor, reopens the 1.1113 CPI low
US PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
French CPI at 06:45 UTC is a nearer-term risk event during London hours
03:01 UTC
Sharp recovery from CPI low, testing range top · RSI 66 · price 1.12071
Failed break below 1.1150 range floor, near-full retrace of CPI drop.
EURUSD held a 1.1150–1.1217 range from Monday to Wednesday. London drove Monday's slide to the range floor, and NY took the hot US CPI print through it to a 1.1113 low. That break failed: the post-CPI rebound since late NY Wednesday has retraced almost the whole drop and lifted price back above the week open, the prior close and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 66. The Asia high at 1.1218 briefly cleared Monday's high before easing, leaving the range top as the immediate cap.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1184, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1243
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1218 asia high clears the range top and opens the 1.1243 prior high
Slip back below the 1.1202 prior close and 1.1184 week open puts the 1.1150 range floor back in focus
Loss of 1.1150 range floor reopens the 1.1113 CPI low and voids the false-break read
H1 close below the rebound higher-lows line would mark the post-CPI rebound stalling
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; France CPI 06:45 UTC is secondary
Lower highs since Monday; CPI break below 1.1150 reversed back inside the weekly range.
The hot US CPI print drove a 98-pip flush in the NY session from the 1.1211 week high to a 1.1113 CPI low, breaking the 1.1151 Monday low. Price has since retraced about 86% of that drop and is back near the 1.1203 Asia high, so the CPI break now reads as a false break of the Monday low, which held earlier in the week. Price is back above EMA(20) near 1.1172 with RSI(14) near 61. The lower-highs line from the 1.1217 Monday high is still intact just above.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1211, 1.1217
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1211 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the 1.1217 Monday high
Failure at the 1.1203 Asia high and a close back below EMA(20) at 1.1172 puts the 1.1151 Monday low back in focus
A move back below 1.1151 revives the CPI breakdown and exposes the 1.1113 CPI low
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read; French CPI at 06:45 UTC is secondary
01:01 UTC
Range, sharp V-recovery after CPI drop · RSI 60 · price 1.11942
Week range 1.1113–1.1217; CPI break below Monday low fully reclaimed.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print knocked EUR/USD about 85 pips during the NY session, from the 1.1198 CPI origin to a 1.1113 week low, slicing through Monday's low at 1.1151. That move has since fully retraced, with the late-NY and early Asia session rally putting price back at the CPI origin, above the week open at 1.1184 and EMA(20) near 1.1169, while RSI(14) recovers to around 60. The break of Monday's low now reads as a false break, and supply has capped the week at the 1.1211 Wednesday high and 1.1217 week high along a gently sloping lower-highs line from Monday.
Support: 1.11842, 1.1169, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11985, 1.12111, 1.12167
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1199 CPI origin brings the 1.1211 Wed high and the lower-highs line near 1.1209 into play, with the 1.1217 week high above that
Rejection at the CPI origin and a close back below the week open at 1.1184 and EMA(20) puts the CPI rebound fib 50% at 1.1156 and Monday's low at 1.1151 back in view
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; French CPI at 06:45 UTC is a secondary EUR input
1.1152–1.1211 range broken on CPI, now reclaimed into 61.8% fib.
The week opened at 1.1184 and ranged between the 1.1152 floor (Monday and Tuesday lows) and 1.1211 until the hot US CPI hit during Wednesday's NY session. That bar dropped ~70 pips and the move extended to the 1.1113 CPI low. Price has since rebuilt along a rebound trendline of higher lows and jumped at the start of Thursday's Asia session to the 61.8% fib of the CPI drop at 1.1174, back above the old floor and EMA(20) near 1.1155 and pressing EMA(50) just under 1.1170, with RSI(14) recovered to ~53. The weekly open at 1.1184 sits directly overhead, and the pre-CPI high at 1.1211 caps the week's range.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1152, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.1184, 1.1211
What it said to watch
Hourly closes above the 61.8% fib and the 1.1184 weekly open would turn the CPI break into a false break back inside the range
Failure at 1.1174 and a slip below the 50% fib at 1.1162 puts the floor+ema20 confluence at 1.1152 back in play
A close back below 1.1152 confirms the range break and reopens the 1.1113 CPI low
Loss of the rebound trendline ends the higher-low sequence off the CPI low
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read, with euro-area inflation and Fed Chair Warsh on Friday