EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 15 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Sideways, higher lows since the NY data spike · RSI 51 · price 1.12132
Higher lows under a flat 1.1221–1.1224 cap; tight post-rollover range.
Since the 1.1188 PPI spike low, the pair has carved higher lows at 1.1193, 1.1199 and the 1.1204 swing low. Highs have stayed capped at the 1.1221–1.1224 NY high, with the dollar fading hot PPI and retail sales as Treasury yields fell. Early Asia is holding a thin 1.1211–1.1219 range on the rising trendline, with price pinned at EMA20, RSI(14) near 51 and ATR(14) about 3 pips. The London high at 1.1230 and the 1.1240 Asian high sit above the cap.
Support: 1.12112, 1.12041, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12241, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean that lifts yields would pressure the rising trendline
M15 close below the 1.1211 rollover low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.1204 swing low
Failure to hold the 1.1204 swing low ends the higher-low chain, with the 1.1188 ppi spike low next
Close above the 1.1224 NY high opens the 1.1230 London high, then the 1.1240 Asian high
23:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.12128
1.1204–1.1222 range since London; thin post-rollover drift.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 1.1188 was a false break of London's lows and was bought back as yields slid, leaving price boxed between the ny swing low 1.1205 and the ny high 1.1222. Post-rollover trade is thin at 1.1213, sitting on the 50% of the asian rally fib with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 1.12046, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12214, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ny swing low at 1.1205 breaks the range floor and exposes the data spike low at 1.1188
M15 close above the ny high at 1.1222 and the london high at 1.1230 reopens the asian high at 1.1240
Warsh speech ~03:30 UTC, with Nagel at 02:30 UTC, could materially shift this read in thin Asia-session liquidity
23:16 UTC
Sideways, mild higher lows since NY · RSI 51 · price 1.1213
1.1190–1.1240 range; NY higher lows, early Asia mid-range.
After the prior Asia high at 1.1240 capped the day, demand absorbed the US data spike to 1.1188 despite hot PPI, as falling yields kept the dollar soft. NY then printed higher lows, from the ny low at 1.1193 to the swing low at 1.1205. Early Asia is holding mid-range near 1.1213, under the late ny high at 1.1221, on 3-pip bars.
Support: 1.1205, 1.1193
Resistance: 1.1221, 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
Close above the late ny high at 1.1221 brings the london high at 1.1230 and the asia high at 1.1240 back into play
Break below the swing low at 1.1205 ends the higher-lows sequence and exposes the ny low at 1.1193
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Sideways, compressing after NY · RSI 56 · price 1.12129
Lower highs from London vs rising NY lows; coil at 1.1213.
Early Asia, post-rollover: price is pinned at 1.1213 inside the 1.1193–1.1230 range that London and NY have held since the Asia high at 1.1240 faded. NY's spike to 1.1188 on the hot US PPI and retail sales data was bought as yields slid. Lower highs at the london high 1.1230 and late NY high 1.1221 now meet a rising trendline off the NY low and the 1.1204 swing low, leaving a tightening coil on a ~3.6-pip ATR.
Support: 1.12041, 1.1193
Resistance: 1.12214, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (ECB's Nagel 02:30 UTC) is the likely catalyst to resolve the compression
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 1.1204 swing low exposes the ny low at 1.1193
Close above the late NY high at 1.1221 breaks the lower-highs sequence; london high 1.1230 and asia high 1.1240 sit above
22:46 UTC
Range-bound after Asian rally, highs drifting lower · RSI 50 · price 1.12116
1.1193–1.1230 range, lower highs pressing into 1.1220.
The Asian rally to the 1.1241 Asian high came on the US yield slide. Since then price has held a 1.1193–1.1230 range, with lower highs from the London high capping near 1.1220. The 1.1188 NY low on the hot PPI/retail data was a false break that reversed within the hour, and price now sits mid-range in early Asia near the 38.2% of the Asian rally.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1193
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
M15 close above the trendline near 1.1220 and the london high at 1.1230 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.1204 (fib 50% of the Asian rally) exposes the ny low at 1.1193
ECB's Nagel at 02:30 GMT and Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could break the range
22:31 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally · RSI 56 · price 1.12161
Range 1.1200–1.1230 below the Asia high.
The Asia rally on falling US yields topped at the asia high of 1.1240, and London and NY have since been capped between the london low near 1.1200 and the london high at 1.1230. The 12:30 UTC PPI/retail sales spike to the data low at 1.1188 was a false break that was reclaimed, near the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib, as the market faded the hot prints. Price is mid-range at 1.1216 in thin rollover trade, below the ny high and holding above the 19:15 UTC swing low at 1.1205.
Support: 1.12046, 1.12007, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12241, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC Fri is the main risk to this range read
M15 close above the london high at 1.1230 reopens the asia high at 1.1240
Loss of the swing low at 1.1205 and the london low at 1.1200 exposes the data low at 1.1188, the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib
Rejection at the ny high at 1.1224 keeps the range intact
22:16 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, slight upward tilt · RSI 59 · price 1.12181
1.1193–1.1224 range since US data, rising lows late NY.
The Asia rally to 1.1241 has given way to a 1.1193–1.1224 range. The US data spike to the 1.1188 data low briefly broke the range floor, but that break failed and held at the 61.8% retracement of the rally, as falling yields offset hot PPI. Late NY set a higher swing low at 1.1204, and price is drifting just under the NY high in thin post-rollover trade.
Support: 1.12041, 1.1193, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12241, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 ny high breaks the range top and exposes the london high at 1.1230, then the asia high at 1.1241
Loss of the 1.1204 swing low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the ny low at 1.1193 and the data low at 1.1188
ECB's Nagel at 02:30 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Flat after Asia rally, range-bound · RSI 48 · price 1.12154
1.1188–1.1222 range, higher lows from NY low.
The Asia session rally from 1.1152 to the 1.1240 Asian high came on falling US yields. Price has since compressed into a 1.1188–1.1222 range, and the 12:30 UTC US data spike was a false break below the 1.1204 swing low to the 1.1188 data low, quickly reclaimed near the 50% retrace. Into rollover, price sits mid-range at 1.1215 with RSI(14) near 48. Rising lows from 1.1193 are intact, and the 1.1230 London high caps above the range top.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read; thin post-rollover liquidity can exaggerate the first move
M15 close above the 1.1222 range top exposes the 1.1230 London high, then the 1.1240 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1204 swing low breaks the rising lows line and reopens the 1.1188 data low
Eurozone inflation batch at 09:00 UTC Fri is a second catalyst for a range break
21:46 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, range compressing · RSI 50 · price 1.12158
Contracting range below 1.1240: lower highs against higher lows.
Since the Asia high at 1.1240, London held inside the asian low–london high band (1.1201–1.1230). The 12:30 UTC US PPI/retail release swept to the ppi low at 1.1188 before falling yields pulled price back. Highs are stepping lower (1.1230, the ny high at 1.1224, 1.1221) against rising lows, up to the late ny low at 1.1204, leaving price coiled near 1.1216 into early Asia.
Support: 1.12041, 1.12007, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12241, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (ECB's Nagel 02:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Close above the 1.1224 ny high breaks the lower-highs line; 1.1230 london high next
Failure to hold the 1.1204 late ny low and the 1.1200 asian low breaks the higher-lows line, exposing the 1.1188 ppi low
21:31 UTC
Intraday range, higher lows since NY data spike · RSI 51 · price 1.12164
Higher lows under flat 1.1221–1.1224 cap; Asia high 1.1240 intact.
The 12:30 UTC US data dump spiked EUR/USD to 1.1188, but the drop under the psych 1.1200 failed as Treasury yields fell. NY then printed higher lows along a rising trendline from the 1.1193 ny low through the 1.1205 swing low, while the 1.1224 ny high capped. Post-rollover trade is thin, with price sitting mid-range near 1.1216 and under the 1.1230 london high and 1.1240 asia high.
Support: 1.1205, 1.1200, 1.1193
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 ny high opens the 1.1230 london high, then the 1.1240 asia high
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1205 swing low puts the psych 1.1200 and the 1.1193 ny low back in play
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC (~6h); it could materially shift this read during the Asia session
Thin post-rollover liquidity until the Asian range forms; ATR(14) is near 4 pips
21:16 UTC
Sideways after Asian rally, higher lows into the cap · RSI 54 · price 1.12173
1.1188–1.1230 range since the Asian high, rising lows pressing the ny high.
After the Asian high at 1.1240, London and NY held 1.1188–1.1230. The PPI/retail-sales spike to the 1.1188 data low reversed as US yields fell, and late NY printed higher lows at the 1.1193 ny low and 1.1205 swing low into the 1.1221–1.1224 ny high cap. RSI(14) sits near 54 and ATR(14) is about 4.5 pips as the new Asia session opens.
Support: 1.12046, 1.1193, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12241, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1224 ny high opens the 1.1230 london high, then the 1.1240 asian high
Break of the rising lows line and the 1.1205 swing low returns focus to the 1.1193 ny low and 1.1188 data low
Fed Chair Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC, about 6h away, could materially shift this read
Fri 09:00 UTC euro inflation batch is the next scheduled driver after Warsh
21:01 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, range compressing · RSI 60 · price 1.12181
Lower highs from 1.12405 against higher lows from 1.11883; price pressing the descending line.
The Asia-session rally to the 1.12405 asia high has since compressed. Lower highs formed at 1.12295 (london high) and 1.12241. Higher lows rose from the 1.11883 ppi low to the 1.1193 ny low and the 1.12046 swing low, as the dollar faded hot PPI on falling yields. Thin post-NY trade has price leaning on the 1.12195 lower high, with RSI(14) at 60 and ATR near 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.12046, 1.1193, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12195, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12195 lower high breaks the descending line and opens the 1.12295 london high
Loss of the 1.12046 swing low breaks the higher-low line and re-exposes the 1.1193 ny low and 1.11883 ppi low
Nagel at 02:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could resolve the compression during the Asia session; the 1.12405 asia high caps the range above
Day range 1.1188–1.1241; rising lows vs lower highs since NY.
EUR/USD has held a 1.1188–1.1241 range since the overnight run to the 1.1240 Asia high. The PPI spike to the 1.1188 ppi low was bought back as US yields fell. Late in the NY session, price is coiling between rising lows off the 1.1193 ny low and lower highs from 1.1224, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1193, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 lower high breaks the coil and puts the 1.1230 london high and 1.1240 asia high in play
Failure to hold the 1.1204 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.1193 ny low
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) is due now and could jolt the thin late-NY tape
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC in the Asia session; a hawkish lean that lifts yields would test the range floor
20:16 UTC
Sideways after Asian rally, highs drifting lower · RSI 57 · price 1.12143
1.1200–1.1230 range; lower highs against a flat floor near 1.1200.
The pair has ranged 1.1200–1.1230 since the Asian rally topped at the 1.1240 asia high. The US PPI spike to the 1.1188 ppi low was rejected back inside the range as Treasury yields fell. Late in the NY session, price is pressing the falling trendline off the Asia high near 1.1217, with RSI(14) ~57 and the 1.1205 swing low holding near the 38.2% retracement of the Asian rally.
Support: 1.12046, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12195, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 swing high breaks the falling trendline and opens the 1.1230 london high, then the 1.1240 asia high
Loss of the 1.1205 swing low and the 1.1200 round number re-exposes the 1.1188 ppi low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Pennant: lower highs from 1.12405 against rising lows from 1.11883.
The Asia-session rally from 1.1150 to the 1.12405 asia high has compressed into a pennant. Lower highs at 1.12295, the 1.12241 NY high and the 1.12195 late NY high sit against rising lows from the 1.11883 data low set on the hot US PPI/retail sales print. Price holds 1.1212 near the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) ~55 and flat EMAs; the firmness reflects the dollar fading on falling yields rather than euro demand.
Support: 1.12041, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12195, 1.12241, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12195 late NY high breaks the pennant top, exposing the 1.12241 NY high and 1.12405 asia high
Loss of the 1.12041 swing low and the 1.1200 round number breaks the pennant base, putting the 1.11883 data low back in focus
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Range after Asia rally, lower highs forming · RSI 46 · price 1.12047
Compression between 1.1200 floor and descending highs.
The Asia session rally to the 1.1240 Asia high has been followed by a sequence of lower highs at 1.1230, 1.1224 and 1.1220. Each London and NY dip has held the 1.1200 round number, close to the 38.2% retrace of the Asia rally fib. The US PPI/retail sales spike swept to a PPI low of 1.1188 and was reclaimed as falling yields offset the hot data, and price now sits back on the floor late in NY hours.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number would break the floor and expose the 1.1188 PPI low, near the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib
Close above the 1.1220 lower high breaks the descending trendline resistance
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC during Asia hours, could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 51 · price 1.12087
Compressing range 1.1200–1.1222 under descending highs.
Late NY session finds price at 1.1209, inside a range that has printed lower highs at 1.1230 (london high), 1.1224 and 1.1220 (lower high) since the 1.1241 asia high. The spike to the 1.1188 data low on the hot US PPI and retail sales release was a false break of the 1.1200 round number, reclaimed as falling yields kept USD heavy. Price is pivoting near the 38.2% of the overnight rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12195, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number turns the compression into a range break and puts the 1.1188 data low back in play
Close above the 1.1220 lower high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1230 london high next
Clearing the 1.1241 asia high would reopen the overnight rally
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Friday, during the Asia session, could materially shift this read
Range 1.1200–1.1220 below the Asia high, late NY session.
Late NY session. Price is ranging 1.1200–1.1220 under the 1.1240 Asia high after the overnight 90-pip rally on falling US yields. The hot PPI spike to the 1.1188 PPI low was absorbed above the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib. The latest push saw rejection at the range top, with RSI(14) near 54 and both EMAs flat at price.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1188 PPI low and the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib
Acceptance above the 1.1220 range top reopens the 1.1240 Asia high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could shift this read within the next session
Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC (~8h) is the dominant catalyst for a range break
18:46 UTC
Sideways after Asian rally, highs compressing · RSI 56 · price 1.12121
Lower highs from 1.1240 against a rising floor off the 1.1188 data low.
The Asia-session rally topped at the 1.1240 asian high. London and NY have stayed inside it, printing a lower-high chain of 1.1230 (london high), 1.1224 and 1.1220 (latest lower high) against a rising floor off the 1.1188 data low. That low came from the 12:30 UTC hot US PPI/retail sales spike, which faded as yields slid. Late NY, after London close, price sits at 1.1212, mid-structure above the 1.1200 round number.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12195, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, exposing the 1.1230 london high
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number and the rising floor reopens the 1.1188 data low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Nagel at 02:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri (~9h), could materially shift this read
18:33 UTC
Range after overnight rally, lower highs · RSI 66 · price 1.12183
Contracting range 1.1188–1.1241, lower highs vs flat lows.
The Asia rally topped at the 1.1241 asia high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at the 1.1230 london high and 1.1224, while the 1.1188 data spike on hot US PPI and retail sales was bought back above fib 38.2 at 1.1206 as yields slid. The late-NY grind off the 1.1193 ny low is now pressing the lower-highs trendline near 1.1220, RSI(14) ~66.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1193, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 trendline breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 1.1230 london high, then the 1.1241 asia high
Rejection at the trendline and a loss of fib 38.2 at 1.1206 returns focus to the 1.1193 ny low and the 1.1188 data spike
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Range-bound after Asia rally, late-NY grind higher · RSI 55 · price 1.12176
Higher lows off NY low inside London/NY range.
The 12:30 UTC PPI/retail sales spike to the 1.1188 data low faded as falling US yields outweighed the hot prints. Late NY session has built a higher-low chain off the 1.1193 NY low back to 1.1218, near the 50% retracement of the Asian high to NY low decline, with the 1.1224 NY high still capping.
Support: 1.1209, 1.1193, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 NY high opens the 1.1230 London high and the 1.1240 Asian high
Loss of the 1.1209 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the NY low and data low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Sideways below Asian high, higher lows into late NY · RSI 54 · price 1.12143
Range 1.1188–1.1240 since Asia; NY higher lows off the data low.
The Asia rally topped at the 1.1240 asian high. London and NY have rotated below it, with the 1.1230 london high capping. The 12:30 UTC spike on hot PPI and retail sales printed a data low at 1.1188, near the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib, and was bought back as US yields fell. Late NY is grinding off higher lows above the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1193 ny low, pressing the 1.1224 ny high.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1193, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12241, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 ny high brings the 1.1230 london high and the 1.1240 asian high into play
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number breaks the NY higher lows and exposes the 1.1193 ny low and the 1.1188 data low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, and especially Warsh at Fri 03:30 UTC during Asia, could materially shift this read
17:46 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, range compressing · RSI 54 · price 1.12147
Lower highs vs rising lows inside 1.1188–1.1230 since the Asia high.
Asia's yield-driven 90-pip rally peaked at the 1.1240 Asia high. Price has since held a 1.1188–1.1230 range, and the hot-PPI spike to the 1.1188 PPI low was bought back above the 61.8% fib of that move. Late in the NY session, price at 1.1215 is squeezed between rising lows off 1.1188 and lower highs from the 1.1230 London high, with the 1.1224 NY high overhead and the 1.1200 round number underneath; RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12241, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.1188 PPI low / 61.8% fib
M15 close above the 1.1224 NY high breaks the lower highs and opens the 1.1230 London high, then the 1.1240 Asia high
Fed's Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read via US yields
17:31 UTC
Range-bound after Asian rally, lower highs · RSI 48 · price 1.12097
Lower highs since 1.1241, 1.1200 floor reclaimed twice.
The Asian session rally on softer US yields topped at the 1.1241 Asian high. Price has since held a 1.1190–1.1230 range, printing lower highs at the 1.1230 London high and the 1.1224 NY high. Dips through the 1.1200 round number to the 1.1188 PPI low and the 1.1193 NY low were both reclaimed, and after London close price sits mid-range near the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1193, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1193 NY low would end the false-break read and expose the 1.1188 PPI low
Close through the lower-highs trendline and above the 1.1224 NY high reopens the 1.1230 London high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read via US yields
17:16 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, lower highs · RSI 53 · price 1.12114
1.1188–1.1230 range below the 1.1240 Asia high.
Since the 1.1240 Asia high, price has ranged with a London high at 1.1230 and a lower high at 1.1224. The 12:30 UTC US PPI spike was a false break of the 1.1200 round number to a 1.1188 PPI low, and it reversed as US yields slid. Late in the NY session price sits mid-range near 1.1211, hugging both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12241, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1224 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.1230 London high and 1.1240 Asia high back in play
Acceptance below the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1188 PPI low would turn the range into a lower-low sequence
Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read via US yields
17:01 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, lower highs · RSI 49 · price 1.12071
Range 1.1188–1.1230 below the 1.1241 asia high, highs stepping lower.
Since the Asia high at 1.1241, EURUSD has held a range with lower highs at the 1.1230 london high and the 1.1224 NY high. The hot US PPI spike to the 1.1188 ppi low was reclaimed as Treasury yields slid. After London close, price sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally just above 1.1200 psych, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and price pinned to EMA20.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12241, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
A close below 1.1200 psych and the 1.1188 ppi low would break the range floor and open the 50% fib of the Asia rally near 1.1196 and below
A close above the 1.1224 NY high would break the lower highs line and expose the 1.1230 london high, then the 1.1241 asia high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read via US yields
1.1190–1.1230 range capped by a lower-high sequence.
Since the 1.1240 Asian high, EUR/USD has set lower highs at the 1.1230 London high and the 1.1224 NY high. The 12:30 UTC PPI/retail sales spike to the 1.1188 data low was bought back as US yields slid, and the NY low at 1.1193 held as well. After London close, price sits at 1.1206 just above the 1.1200 psych level and the 38.2% of the overnight rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 44.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1193, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1188 data low breaks the range floor and opens the 50% of the overnight rally fib near 1.1195–1.1185
Close above 1.1230 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1240 asian high back in play
Repeated failure to hold 1.1200 psych would confirm the yield-driven rebound fading
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
16:31 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, highs drifting lower · RSI 41 · price 1.12012
Lower highs since Asia high 1.1241, floor 1.1188-1.1200.
The yield-driven Asia rally peaked at the 1.1241 Asia high, and London and NY have printed lower highs under a falling trendline since. The 12:30 UTC PPI spike wicked to a 1.1188 PPI low near the 61.8% fib and recovered. Late NY saw rejection at the 1.1224 NY high, and price is now pressing the 1.1200 psych handle above the 1.1193 NY low, RSI(14) soft near 41.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1193, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1188 PPI low breaks the session floor and the 61.8% fib
Holding 1.1200 psych and the 1.1193 NY low keeps the 1.1188-1.1224 NY range intact
Close above the falling trendline and 1.1224 NY high reopens the 1.1230 London high, then the 1.1241 Asia high
Fed's Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could shift yields and this read
16:01 UTC
Sideways after Asian rally, lower highs · RSI 49 · price 1.1207
1.1188–1.1230 range since Asia high, highs stepping lower.
The Asian rally from 1.1150 topped at the 1.1240 Asia high. London and NY have since ranged below it, with lower highs at the 1.1230 London high and the 1.1224 NY high, and price is sitting on the 38.2% retrace near 1.1206 late in the NY session. Hot US PPI at 12:30 UTC spiked price to the 1.1188 data low, but the move was bought back as US yields slid, and the 1.1200 round number has held on repeat tests; RSI(14) is neutral near 49.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1188 data low breaks the post-Asia range floor and opens the 50% retrace of the Asian rally near 1.1195 and below
A close above the 1.1224 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 1.1230 London high, then the 1.1240 Asia high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
15:46 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, highs compressing · RSI 46 · price 1.12015
Lower highs since Asia high, flat floor near 1.1190-1.1200.
The Asia rally from 1.1150 topped at the 1.1241 asia high. Since then the london high at 1.1230 and ny high at 1.1224 have stepped lower, while the floor has held at the 1.1188 ppi low and 1.1193 ny low, near the 38.2% of the Asia rally. The PPI spike under 1.1200 reversed as US yields slid, and price now sits on the 1.1200 handle late in NY, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1193, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1188 ppi low breaks the range floor and the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib
M15 close above the 1.1224 ny high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.1230 london high back in play
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh's speech Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
15:31 UTC
Range, lower highs since Asian peak · RSI 44 · price 1.12021
1.1188–1.1240 range with descending highs pressing on 1.1200.
The yield-driven overnight rally topped at the 1.1240 Asian high. Since then highs have stepped lower along a falling trendline, from the London high at 1.1230 to a 1.1224 lower high rejected at 14:30 UTC, and price is back on the 1.1200 round number near the 38.2% of the Asian rally fib. The hot PPI print at 12:30 UTC swept down to the 1.1188 PPI low but was bought back, so the range is intact mid-NY session; RSI(14) is 44 and ATR about 9.5 pips.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12241, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1188 PPI low breaks the range floor and the 50% level of the Asian rally
Close above the 1.1224 lower high and the falling trendline reopens the 1.1230 London high
A break of the 1.1240 Asian high would negate the lower-high sequence
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asian rally, lower highs · RSI 38 · price 1.11999
1.1200–1.1230 range since Asian peak, testing range floor.
The Asian session rally topped at the asia high of 1.1240. London and NY have since printed lower highs inside a 1.1200–1.1230 range, and the latest rejection at the ny high of 1.1224 has price back on the 1.1200 round number mid-NY session, just under the london low at 1.1204. The hot US PPI print spiked price to the ppi low at 1.1188, a false break of 1.1200 that was quickly reclaimed as falling US yields kept USD heavy; the 50% fib of the Asian rally sits at 1.1195.
Support: 1.11952, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.12241, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 50% fib at 1.1195 exposes the ppi low at 1.1188 and confirms the range break
Reclaim of the london low at 1.1204 keeps the 1.1200–1.1230 range intact
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the ny high at 1.1224 opens the path back to the asia high at 1.1240
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, highs fading · RSI 48 · price 1.12133
1.1200–1.1230 range since London, lower highs.
Falling US yields drove an Asian-session rally from 1.1149 to the 1.1240 asia high. Since London open, price has held a 1.1200–1.1230 range with highs fading from the 1.1230 london high to the 1.1224 ny high. The 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales release spiked to a 1.1188 data low, near the 50–61.8% fib, before price closed back inside, a false break of the range low.
Support: 1.12007, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12241, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 range low, then the 1.1188 data low, ends the range read and opens the deeper fib
M15 close above the 1.1224 ny high and 1.1230 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1240 asia high back in play
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could shift the US-yield move behind the rally
14:46 UTC
Sideways after Asian rally, highs fading · RSI 47 · price 1.12147
Lower highs compressing above a 1.1200 floor.
Falling US yields lifted the pair to the 1.1240 asian high. Since then, falling highs at the 1.1230 london high, 1.1228 and the 1.1220 lower high have pressed price toward the 1.1200 round number. The hot 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales prints swept to a 1.1188 data low that was quickly reclaimed, and early NY trade sits mid-range at 1.1215 with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1188 data low breaks the consolidation floor
A close above the 1.1220 lower high and the falling highs trendline puts the 1.1230 london high and 1.1240 asian high back in play
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT, then Warsh Fri 03:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
1.1200–1.1220 range in NY; data spike below London low reclaimed.
Mid-NY session, EUR/USD is ranging 1.1200–1.1220. The hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC swept below the London low to a 1.1188 data low, near the 38.2% of the overnight rally, and that drop was reclaimed. A lower-highs line from the 1.1240 Asia high through the 1.1230 London high is capping the NY high at 1.1220; RSI(14) is neutral near 47.
Support: 1.12007, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 1.1230 London high
Acceptance below the 1.1200 London low reopens the 1.1188 data low and the 38.2% retrace of the overnight rally
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT could move US yields, the main driver of this rebound, during late NY hours
14:16 UTC
Range after overnight rally, lower highs · RSI 57 · price 1.12186
1.1204–1.1230 range under the 1.1240 Asia high, data sweep reclaimed.
The Asia-session rally on falling US yields topped at the 1.1240 Asia high. London and NY have since printed lower highs at the 1.1230 London high and 1.1220, inside a range floored by the 1.1204 intraday low. The hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 GMT swept down to a 1.1188 data low near the 61.8% fib of the overnight rally, and that drop was fully reclaimed; price is now pressing the falling trendline at 1.1220.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1220 and the falling trendline breaks the lower highs chain, exposing the 1.1230 London high and 1.1240 Asia high
Failure back below the 1.1204 intraday low reopens the 1.1188 data low and the 61.8% fib
Fed's Hammack (20:30 GMT) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 GMT) could materially shift this read via US yields
14:01 UTC
Range after Asia rally, lower highs · RSI 52 · price 1.12087
London range 1.1200–1.1230 compressing, PPI spike below 1.1200 reclaimed.
London has ranged 1.1200–1.1230 below the 1.1240 Asian high, printing lower highs at 1.1230, 1.1220 and 1.1216. The hot US PPI/Retail Sales release at 12:30 UTC spiked price to the 1.1188 PPI low, near 61.8% of the Asia rally fib, before it recovered back above the 1.1200 pivot low, a false break. RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1200 pivot low would turn the PPI false break into a lower low, exposing the 1.1188 ppi low and the 61.8% Asia rally fib near 1.1185
A close above the 1.1216 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1230 london high and the 1.1240 asian high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh on Friday at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Flat after overnight rally, ranging below asian high · RSI 50 · price 1.12122
London range 1.1204–1.1230 holding; post-data wick below reclaimed.
The hot 12:30 GMT US PPI/retail sales dump spiked through the london low to a 1.1188 data low, near the 61.8% fib of the overnight rally, and was reclaimed within the bar. An hour into NY, price sits mid-range at 1.1212 on a flat EMA20 with RSI(14) near 50. The London range 1.1204–1.1230 is intact below the 1.1241 asian high.
Support: 1.12035, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1204 london low reopens the 1.1188 data low and the 61.8% fib
M15 close above the 1.1230 london high breaks the range and exposes the 1.1241 asian high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Sideways after the Asian rally, lower highs · RSI 46 · price 1.12102
1.1200–1.1230 range with lower highs; failed data break below the base.
EUR/USD has ranged 1.1200–1.1230 since the Asian high at 1.1240, with lower highs at the London high capping. The hot US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC broke below the London low to a spike low of 1.1188, near the 61.8% of the Asian rally fib, but the break reversed within the bar. In the first hour of NY, price sits mid-range below the post-data high at 1.1216, RSI(14) 46.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
Close back below the london low at 1.1200 would turn the data spike from a false break into a range break
Failure to hold the 1.1188 spike low clears the 61.8% of the Asian rally fib
Close above the post-data high at 1.1216 reopens the london high at 1.1230; above that, the lower-highs line and asian high at 1.1240
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift this read after the hawkish US data
13:01 UTC
Pullback inside a range after the overnight rally · RSI 40 · price 1.12076
London range 1.1200–1.1230 with lower highs; PPI spike below the floor was reclaimed.
The overnight rally peaked at the 1.1240 Asia high, and London has since printed lower highs at 1.1230 and 1.1220. The 12:30 UTC hot US PPI and Retail Sales beat spiked price to a 1.1188 PPI low near the 61.8% of the overnight rally, but the bar closed back above the 1.1200 range floor. Price is now pinned near the 38.2% level, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12196, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1188 PPI low turns the false break into a range break lower
Close above the 1.1220 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1230 London high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1200 range floor again during NY hours would confirm USD follow-through from the data
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Intraday pullback from Asia high, lower highs · RSI 39 · price 1.12018
Lower highs into flat base at 1.1200, false break on data bar.
The overnight rally on a softer dollar topped at the 1.1240 Asia high. London stayed inside the Asian range, printing a 1.1230 london high and a 1.1220 lower high into a flat base at the 1.1200 asia low. The US PPI/Retail Sales bar then spiked to a 1.1188 spike low, near the 61.8% retracement of the overnight rally, and closed back at 1.1202: a false break, with RSI(14) near 39 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.12007, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12196, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1188 spike low turns the false break into a break of the Asian range low
M15 close above the 1.1220 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.1230 london high back in play
US yields' reaction to PPI/Retail Sales in the first hour of NY could materially shift this read; a hold of 1.1200 keeps the base intact
EUR/USD reversed the full post-CPI drop overnight, as the dollar pullback carried the pair to an asian high at 1.1240. London has since printed a lower high at 1.1230, followed by another lower high at 1.1220, and price is back on the 1.1200 base, which has held three times. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 42 as US PPI and Retail Sales land at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1192
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are due now and can expand range well beyond the ~7-pip ATR
M15 close below the 1.1200 base breaks the compression and exposes the asia pivot at 1.1192, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the CPI recovery fib
M15 close above the 1.1220 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the london high at 1.1230
Reclaim of the asian high at 1.1240 would put the overnight uptrend back in control
Lower highs inside Asian range, flat floor near 1.1200.
The USD-led recovery from yesterday's post-CPI low topped at the 1.1240 asian high. London has stayed inside the Asian range, printing lower highs at 1.1230 (london high) and 1.1220 (lower high), while the 1.1200–1.1204 floor (asian low, london low) held twice. Price is pinned at EMA20 near 1.1215 heading into the NY open, with RSI neutral and ATR compressed near 7 pips.
Support: 1.12035, 1.12007
Resistance: 1.12196, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read and expand range well beyond current ATR
An M15 close below the 1.1200 asian low breaks the floor and ends the consolidation
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1230 london high reopens the 1.1240 asian high
Rejection again at the 1.1220 lower high keeps the compression intact
11:46 UTC
Post-CPI recovery stalled, ranging below the Asian high · RSI 48 · price 1.12161
London range 1.1201–1.1229 inside the Asian rally; twin lows near 1.1200.
Yesterday's hot-CPI drop to 1.1113 fully reversed as US yields slid, with the Asia session extending the rally to the 1.1240 asian high. London has since ranged between the 1.1201 london low and the 1.1229 london high. Demand has stepped in twice near 1.1200, around the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally, and RSI(14) is flat near 48 ahead of US data.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.1240
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1201 london low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.1184 asia swing
M15 close above the 1.1229 london high brings the 1.1240 asian high back into play
11:31 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, now compressing · RSI 56 · price 1.12196
Lower highs and higher lows below the 1.1240 Asia high.
The post-CPI drop to 1.1113 fully reversed as US yields slid, and the Asia session rally topped at the 1.1240 Asia high. London has compressed into a 1.1204–1.1229 range of lower highs and higher lows, holding above the 38.2% of the post-CPI rally with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.12035, 1.12007
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1229 London high reopens the 1.1240 Asia high
Failure to hold the 1.1204 London low and 1.1200 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~1h) could resolve the compression either way
London range 1.1201–1.1230 below the 1.1240 Asian high.
The USD-led post-CPI rally capped at the 1.1240 Asian high. London has since printed lower highs at 1.1230 and 1.1228 inside a 1.1201–1.1230 range, about a 25% retracement of the post-CPI rally. Price is back near the london low with RSI(14) neutral around 46, and the late-morning dip held at 1.1204.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1201 london low breaks the range and exposes the 1.1184 asia pivot
Close above the 1.1230 london high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.1240 asian high
Lower highs 1.1240→1.1230, base holding at 1.1200 so far.
Asian hours extended the post-CPI USD unwind to the 1.1240 asian high as yields slid. London has since capped at the 1.1230 london high, and price is back at the 1.1200 london low, which lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the Asian rally. Price sits below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.12007, 1.1192
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 london low exposes the asia base near 1.1192 and the 50% retrace
Reclaim of the 1.1230 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the asian high at 1.1240
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
Mid-London, price is still inside the 1.1201–1.1240 Asian range. London capped at 1.1230 twice, setting lower highs under the 1.1240 high, and price is now back at the London low zone near 1.1206–1.1210. That zone also marks the 23.6% retrace of the post-CPI rally from 1.1113, a rally built on USD selling as yields faded the hot CPI.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1201
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1206 london low exposes the asian low at 1.1201 and the 1.1200 handle
Close above the 1.1230 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 1.1240 asian high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Post-CPI rebound, pausing below Asia high · RSI 60 · price 1.12227
Lower highs and rising lows inside the Asian range.
Asia extended the USD-led rebound from the CPI-day low of 1.1113 to a 1.1240 Asia high as US yields slid. London has traded inside that range, with lower highs capped at the 1.1230 London high and rising lows from the 1.1200 swing low to a 1.1213 higher low. Price is coiling mid-range ahead of US data.
Support: 1.12132, 1.12007
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1230 london high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.1240 asia high
Loss of the 1.1213 higher low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.1200 swing low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating below Asian high · RSI 57 · price 1.12225
Higher lows from 1.1201, London capped at 1.1230.
The USD-led rebound off the post-CPI low near 1.1113 ran through Asia to a 1.1241 Asian high as Treasury yields slid. The early-London dip held above the 1.1201 swing low, close to the 38.2% asia rally fib. A rejection at the 1.1230 London high followed, and price is now compressing between the 1.1213 pullback low and rising support below 1.1230.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1201
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1230 london high puts the 1.1241 asian high back in play
Loss of the 1.1213 pullback low and the rising support line exposes the 1.1201 swing low
Break below the 1.1201 swing low negates the higher-low sequence and opens the 50% asia rally fib near 1.1195
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Recovery stalling, sideways inside Asian range · RSI 51 · price 1.12179
Lower high at 1.1230 under the 1.1240 Asian high, higher low at 1.1213.
London is mid-session and still trading inside the Asian range (1.1201–1.1240). The 08:30 UTC push to the 1.1230 London high was rejected, and the pullback low at 1.1213 has held so far. The USD-yield-led rebound from the post-CPI low near 1.1113 is holding above its 23.6% fib at 1.1210, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.12132, 1.12104, 1.12007
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1240 Asian high breaks the range and extends the post-CPI rebound
Loss of the 1.1213 pullback low and the 23.6% fib at 1.1210 exposes the 1.1201 Asian low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
Buba Monthly Report at 10:00 UTC is a minor EUR-specific risk inside the London session
Lower high under Asia high, higher lows from 1.1201; early-London squeeze.
The post-CPI USD unwind carried EUR/USD from 1.1150 to an Asia high at 1.1241 as yields slid. London's first push was rejected at 1.1230, a lower high, while the 1.1201 pullback low and the 1.1209 higher low frame a tightening squeeze, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.12085, 1.12007
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1230 london high reopens the 1.1241 asia high
Break of the 1.1209 higher low and loss of the 1.1201 pullback low ends the recovery structure, exposing the 1.1150 pivot
EZ Industrial Production at 09:00 UTC lands on the current bar
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.1208 in London below the 1.1240 Asian high.
EUR/USD has climbed from the 1.1113 CPI low to an Asian high at 1.1240 as US yields unwound the hot CPI print. The 06:30 UTC dip held at the 1.1201 swing low, and London has since printed a higher low at 1.1208. Price is now pressing back toward the Asian high, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.12085, 1.12007, 1.11841
Resistance: 1.12405, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1240 Asian high extends the higher-high sequence and brings the 1.1250 round number into play
Break below the 1.1208 higher low and then the 1.1201 swing low (the 1.1200 pivot) negates the London structure and exposes the 1.1184 Asian low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
EZ Industrial Production at 09:00 UTC is a minor near-term catalyst
V-reversal off post-CPI low, higher low at 1.1201.
The hot-CPI flush to 1.1113 fully reversed into a 1.1241 Asian high as US yields slumped. The pullback held 1.1201, just above the 1.1200 psych and about a 31% retrace of the rally. Early London is printing higher lows back above the fib 23.6 at 1.1210, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1200, 1.1192
Resistance: 1.1233, 1.1241
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1200 psych exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.1192 and opens a deeper retrace
A close above the 1.1233 swing high puts the 1.1241 asian high back in play
Lower highs off 1.1240 Asian high, 1.1200 swing low intact.
The 12:30 UTC CPI flush to 1.1113 was fully reversed as US yields slumped, and the rebound peaked at the 1.1240 Asian high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 1.1233 and 1.1219, and the first hour of London capped at 1.1218. Price is sitting on the 23.6% fib near 1.1210, with the 1.1200 swing low still holding.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1192, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1233, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 swing low opens the 38.2% fib at 1.1192 and the Asian low at 1.1184
Close above the 1.1218 London high and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the pullback and put the 1.1233 lower high and the 1.1240 Asian high back in play
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; EZ Industrial Production at 09:00 UTC is secondary
08:01 UTC
Post-CPI recovery, pulling back from Asia high · RSI 46 · price 1.12134
Lower highs off 1.1240; early London compressing 1.1201–1.1218.
The hot-CPI flush to 1.1113 fully reversed as US yields sank. The rally peaked at the 1.1240 Asia high, set a lower high at 1.1233, then faded to a 1.1201 London low near the 23.6% fib. Early London is capped at the 1.1218 London high, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 1.12007, 1.11841, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.12179, 1.12329, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1201 London low exposes the 1.1184 swing low and the 38.2% fib near 1.1192
Acceptance above the 1.1218 London high reopens the 1.1233 lower high and the 1.1240 Asia high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 1.1150 broken floor back in play
EZ Industrial Production at 09:00 UTC is a minor risk inside the London session
Falling US yields drove short-covering from the post-CPI low at 1.1113 to an Asian high at 1.1241. Price has since slipped back to the 23.6% fib of that rebound and is holding a pullback low near 1.1201, while lower highs cap at 1.1217–1.1219. The first hour of London is coiling inside 1.1200–1.1220, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1192, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1241
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower highs at 1.1219 reopens the asian high at 1.1241
Failure to hold the 1.1201 pullback low exposes the fib 38.2% at 1.1192 and the asian low at 1.1184
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; EZ Industrial Production at 09:00 UTC is secondary
07:31 UTC
Post-CPI rebound, pausing below Asia high · RSI 46 · price 1.12151
Flag-like pullback from 1.1241, trendline broken at London open.
Falling US yields extended the short-covering bounce off the CPI low at 1.1113, carrying it to an Asia high at 1.1241. The late-Asia pullback held the 1.1201 swing low, roughly a 31% retrace and above the 38.2% fib at 1.1192. The first London bar broke the descending pullback trendline, with price now just under the 1.1219 lower high.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1192
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1241
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales, PPI and Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above the 1.1219 lower high reopens the 1.1241 Asia high
Failure to hold the 1.1201 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.1192
Return below the broken pullback trendline turns the London break into a false break
07:16 UTC
Pullback within post-CPI rebound · RSI 44 · price 1.12089
Lower highs from Asian high, testing 1.1200.
Falling US yields drove the Asian session to extend the post-CPI rebound from 1.1150 to an Asian high at 1.1241. Price has since printed lower highs and slipped to the 1.1200 round number into London open, holding just under the 38.2% retracement with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1195
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1200 round number exposes the 50% fib at 1.1195, near pre-CPI levels
Break above the 1.1219 lower high and descending line ends the pullback sequence; 1.1241 asian high above
Eurozone Industrial Production 09:00 GMT is near-term euro event risk
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia rally, lower highs forming · RSI 41 · price 1.12064
Lower-high, lower-low sequence off the 1.1240 Asia session high, now pressing the 1.1200 round number.
The post-CPI rebound, driven by falling US yields, carried EURUSD from 1.1150 to a 1.1240 session high in Asia. Price was rejected there and has printed lower highs into the London open. It is now retesting the 1.1200 round number, which also sits near the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally. The 50% fib at 1.1195 and the asia low near 1.1184 (close to the 61.8%) lie just below.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1195, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1200 round number exposes the 50% fib at 1.1195 and the asia low near 1.1184
Close above the 1.1219 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.1240 session high back in play
Eurozone Industrial Production at 09:00 GMT is the first test during London hours
US PPI and Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read
Pullback from Asia high, LH/LL sequence since 03:45 UTC.
Asia extended the rebound from the 1.1113 post-CPI low to a 1.1241 asia high as the dollar faded. Price has since printed lower highs into the Frankfurt open, with the most recent lower high at 1.1219, and now sits on the 23.6% retracement near 1.1210, just above the 1.1206 session low.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1192
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1241
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1206 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 38.2% fib at 1.1192
M15 close above the 1.1219 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1241 asia high
London open and the 06:45 UTC EU CPI print can set the session range
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, lower highs forming · RSI 49 · price 1.12068
Lower highs and lower lows since the 02:45 UTC peak, pressing the breakout level.
The hot US CPI broke the pair to 1.1113 during NY hours, and a fading dollar then drove a rally through Asia that was rejected at the 1.1240 Asian high. Lower highs along a falling trendline have since pulled price back onto the 1.1206 breakout level, just under the 23.6% retracement, ahead of the London open; the 38.2% fib at 1.1192 sits below.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1192, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1240
What it said to watch
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC could break the pullback structure either way
M15 close below the 1.1206 breakout level exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.1192, then the 1.1184 Asian low
M15 close above the 1.1219 lower high breaks the trendline sequence and reopens 1.1240 Asian high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1240 Asian high, holding 23.6% fib.
Asia extended the rebound from the post-CPI 1.1113 low to an Asian high at 1.1240 as the USD paused, then faded along a falling trendline of lower highs. Price is sitting on the 1.1210 pullback low at the 23.6% fib, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 41, an hour ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1192
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1219 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the pullback sequence and puts the 1.1240 Asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1210 pullback low exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.1192
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC and London open could expand range beyond the ~7-pip ATR
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Pullback from 1.1240 Asia peak, retesting pre-CPI high near 23.6% fib.
The hot US CPI drop to 1.1113 fully reversed as yields eased and the dollar faded. The rebound peaked at the 1.1240 session high at 02:45 UTC and was rejected. Since then, a lower high at 1.1233 and a slip under ema20 have brought price back to the 1.1211 pre-CPI high, which lines up with the 23.6% fib of the rebound. Late Asia session, roughly an hour before London open.
Support: 1.12111, 1.12057, 1.1192
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.12329, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Holding the 1.1211 pre-CPI high keeps the retest intact; an M15 close below the 1.1206 swing low opens the 38.2% fib at 1.1192
Recovery above ema20 and the 1.1233 lower high would neutralise the post-peak pullback, with the 1.1240 session high next
EZ CPI at 06:45 UTC lands near London open; US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the 1.1240 Asian high, testing the 23.6% retracement.
The Asia session fully reversed the post-CPI drop to 1.1113. The rally from that low topped at the 1.1240 Asian high as USD faded on lower Treasury yields. Since then the pair has printed lower highs and is sitting on the 23.6% retracement near 1.1210, just above the 1.1206 swing low and the 1.1200 round number.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1200, 1.1192
Resistance: 1.1233, 1.1240
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1206 swing low and 1.1200 round number exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.1192
Recovery through the 1.1233 lower high and the descending trendline brings the 1.1240 Asian high back into play
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC and London open are next; US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Post-CPI recovery, pulling back from Asian high · RSI 58 · price 1.12136
V-recovery to 1.1240 Asian high, now micro lower highs into pre-London.
The Asia session fully retraced the CPI-driven drop as the USD faded, running from the 1.1150 old floor to an Asian high at 1.1240 before rejection. Price has since slipped to 1.1214 with lower highs at 1.1233 and 1.1229. It is back under EMA20 ahead of London open, with the 1.1206 swing low at the 38.2% fib the first support below.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1192, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1233, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.1233 lower high reopens the 1.1240 asian high
Failure to hold 1.1206 (38.2% fib) exposes the 1.1192 swing low and the 1.1150 old floor
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC may set the London session tone
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 61 · price 1.12146
Lower high after Asian HH/HL chain, testing 1.1214.
Asia extended the recovery from the post-CPI 1.1113 low to a 1.1241 asian high as the dollar spike unwound. That was followed by a lower high at 1.1233 and a slip back to 1.1214 ahead of the London open, the first break in the Asian HH/HL chain. Price is below EMA20, and the 38.2% of the Asian leg sits at the 1.1206 swing low.
Support: 1.12057, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12329, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1206 swing low (38.2% of the Asian leg) exposes the 1.1200 round number
M15 close back above the 1.1233 lower high restores the Asian HH/HL sequence, with the 1.1241 asian high above
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC and the US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Post-CPI recovery, pulling back from Asia high · RSI 51 · price 1.12147
Higher-low chain from 1.1150 base, lower highs since 1.1241.
Asian session extended the rebound from the CPI-driven low to a 1.1241 asian high as USD gave back its CPI spike, with a rejection there followed by lower highs and a slip below EMA20 toward 1.1215. RSI(14) is near 51, neutral, and price sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% of the Asia leg fib, with the 1.1206 swing low and rising trendline just below, late in Asia ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1233, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1206 swing low and rising trendline breaks the Asia higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1233 lower high reopens the 1.1241 asian high
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC is a minor risk; US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from Asia high · RSI 61 · price 1.12177
Asia extended the full post-CPI reversal from 1.1113 to a 1.1241 session high, then rejected it with lower highs at 1.1236 and 1.1233. Price is now back on the 1.1214 swing low, with ema20 and the pre-CPI high clustered near 1.1211. RSI(14) has cooled to ~61 and ATR(14) is ~9 pips.
Support: 1.12141, 1.12105, 1.11917
Resistance: 1.12329, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1211 (pre-CPI high / ema20) exposes the 38.2 fib near 1.1192
Close back above the 1.1233 lower high breaks the pullback sequence and reopens the 1.1241 session high
French CPI at 06:45 UTC around London open, then US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from Asia high · RSI 60 · price 1.12201
Post-CPI V-reversal; micro lower high and lower low below the 1.1240 peak.
Asia fully reversed the hot-CPI drop from the 1.1113 NY low, clearing the pre-CPI high at 1.1211, before a rejection at the 1.1240 Asia high. Late Asia printed a lower high at 1.1233 and slipped under 1.1223. That puts the 1.1214 swing low and the pre-CPI high, near the 23.6% fib, in focus. RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR is about 10 pips.
Support: 1.12141, 1.12111, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12329, 1.12405
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1211 pre-CPI high and the 1.1200 round number opens a deeper retracement toward the 38.2% fib near 1.1192
Reclaim of the 1.1233 lower high puts the 1.1240 Asia high back in play
French CPI at 06:45 UTC lands just before London open
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; stalled below Asia session high.
EUR/USD has fully reversed the hot-CPI flush to 1.1113 and pushed through the Asia session to a 1.1240 session high, clearing the pre-CPI high at 1.1211. Late in Asia the pace is slowing: price is holding a higher swing low at 1.1223 with RSI(14) cooling to about 66.
Support: 1.12228, 1.1211, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12405, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1223 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1211 pre-CPI high and the fib 23.6%
Acceptance above the 1.1240 session high extends the leg toward the 1.1250 round number
Loss of the 1.1200 round number would put the post-CPI reversal under pressure
French CPI at 06:45 UTC and the London open could set a new session range
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late Asia · RSI 71 · price 1.12327
HH/HL chain since the 1.1113 post-CPI low; pre-CPI high reclaimed.
Asia session retraced the full hot-CPI drop from the 1.1113 low and cleared the 1.1211 pre-CPI high, consistent with the digest's short-covering read. Price is now pressing back toward the 1.1241 session high, with the 03:15 UTC higher low at 1.1223 intact and RSI(14) at 71, hot but not stretched.
Support: 1.12228, 1.12111, 1.12057
Resistance: 1.12405, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1223 higher low breaks the Asia trend HH/HL chain
Return below the 1.1211 pre-cpi high would mark the breakout as a false break
Close above the 1.1241 session high exposes the 1.1250 round number
Failure at the 1.1206 swing low unwinds most of the cpi rebound
French CPI 06:45 UTC near London open, then US PPI/Retail Sales 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asia high · RSI 67 · price 1.12253
Higher-high/higher-low chain through Asia, first lower high off 1.1241.
Asia session fully reversed yesterday's hot-CPI drop to 1.1113 and pushed above the pre-CPI 1.1190–1.1211 range. A higher-high/higher-low chain topped at the 1.1241 Asia high, where a rejection pulled price back to 1.1225 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) cooling to about 67. The 1.1214 swing low and the 38.2% fib at 1.1206 mark the last higher-low structure. The 1.1250 round number sits just above the Asia high.
Support: 1.12141, 1.12059
Resistance: 1.12405, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1214 swing low, then the 38.2% fib at 1.1206, breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 1.1241 Asia high exposes the 1.1250 round number
French CPI at 06:45 UTC (f/c 3.4%) lands around London open
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, first rejection at session high · RSI 69 · price 1.1225
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia, above the pre-CPI range.
Asia fully reversed the hot-CPI drop to 1.1113, with a rising trendline of higher lows carrying price to a 1.1240 session high above the pre-CPI range top near 1.1211. The latest bar rejected 1.1240, but the swing low at 1.1214 still holds, and the fib 38.2 of the Asian rally sits at 1.1206.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1206
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1214 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1206 fib 38.2 puts the Asian rally into a deeper retracement
Close above the 1.1240 session high opens the 1.1250 round number
French CPI at 06:45 UTC near London open, then US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain through Asia, trading above the pre-CPI range.
The hot-CPI flush to 1.1113 has been fully retraced as the USD drifted lower in Asia. Price cleared the pre-CPI high near 1.1211 and printed an Asia high of 1.1241, with RSI(14) near 78. Dips held at the 1.1206 pullback low and the 1.1214 swing low, so the higher-low chain is intact in late Asia.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1206, 1.1191
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1250
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1214 swing low and the Asia trendline breaks the higher-low chain
A rejection at the 1.1241 Asia high with RSI near 80 would point to exhaustion. A clear move through the 1.1250 round number extends the breakout
France CPI at 06:45 UTC and the London open could set the session range
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC: hot prints would challenge the CPI reversal, and losing the 1.1191 Asia base reopens the 1.1150 pivot
Higher-high/higher-low chain since rollover; CPI drop fully retraced.
The hot-CPI flush to 1.1113 has been fully retraced. A higher-high/higher-low chain off the rollover carried EUR/USD through the pre-CPI high at 1.1211 to a 1.1229 session high in early Asia session as USD drifted. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched, the 1.1206 swing low is the latest higher low, and price sits well above the rising trendline.
Support: 1.12111, 1.12057, 1.11843
Resistance: 1.12285, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1211 pre-CPI high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1206 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.1184
Close above the 1.1229 session high opens the 1.1250 round number
France CPI at 06:45 UTC is a secondary EUR driver
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended after full CPI reversal · RSI 75 · price 1.12171
HH/HL chain through Asia session, upper-wick rejection at session high.
Asia session erased the entire hot-CPI drop from 1.1193 to 1.1113, then put in a session high at 1.1229 before a rejection wick. RSI(14) is near 75. Price is now well above the 1.1150 area the digest frames as resistance, with the pullback low at 1.1206 and the pre-CPI high at 1.1211 just below.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1206, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12285, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1206 pullback low breaks the Asia trendline and the HH/HL chain, exposing the 1.1200 round number
Close above the 1.1229 session high reopens the 1.1250 psych level
Hold of the pre-CPI high at 1.1211 keeps the reversal structure intact
French CPI at 06:45 UTC and US PPI/claims/retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating in Asia · RSI 86 · price 1.12283
HH/HL chain; pre-CPI prior high reclaimed.
The Asia session has fully unwound the CPI drop from the 1.1113 low as the post-CPI USD bid fades. A 20-pip bar cleared the pre-CPI prior high at 1.1211 into a 1.1228 session high, with the HH/HL chain intact along the rising trendline and RSI(14) stretched near 86. The swing low at 1.1206 and the fib 38.2 at 1.1184 sit below, and the 1.1250 round number is the next level overhead.
Support: 1.12111, 1.12057, 1.11843
Resistance: 1.12285, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1206 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
A move back below the 1.1211 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Rejection at the 1.1228 session high with RSI above 80 would point to a stall before London open
1.1250 round number is the next level above if the session high gives way
French CPI at 06:45 UTC and US PPI/retail sales/claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at prior high · RSI 78 · price 1.12076
Asia-session HH/HL run off 1.1150; close back under 1.1211 after brief break.
The Asia session has lifted EUR/USD about 68 pips from the 1.1150 Asia low to a 1.12185 session high, more than erasing Wednesday's hot-CPI drop. It briefly cleared the prior high at 1.1211, then closed back under it. The 1.1206 pullback low is holding with RSI(14) near 78, hot after the run.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1192, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.12185
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1211 prior high reclaims the break and puts the 1.12185 session high in play
Loss of 1.1206 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.1192, where the leg consolidated before the last push
Break below 1.1192 ends the Asia HH/HL sequence, with the 1.1150 Asia low the next reference
French CPI 06:45 UTC and the US PPI/retail sales/claims cluster 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 86 · price 1.12103
HH/HL chain off the 1.1150 Asia low, now testing the 1.1211 prior high.
Asia session completed a full retrace of the hot-CPI drop to 1.1113, with the Asia leg running about 68 pips off the 1.1150 Asia low. Price briefly cleared the 1.1211 prior high to an asia high of 1.12185, then slipped back to test it. Higher lows at 1.1192 and 1.1206 keep the HH/HL chain intact along the rally trendline, but RSI(14) near 86 is extreme for M15.
Support: 1.1206, 1.1192, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.12185
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12185 asia high extends the HH chain; failure to hold above the 1.1211 prior high leaves the poke above it as a false break
Break of the 1.1206 higher low and the rally trendline prints the first lower low of the Asia leg; 1.1192 (fib 38.2) is next
Loss of the fib 38.2 opens a deeper retrace of the Asia leg toward the 1.1150 Asia low, the pivot cited in the EUR digest
French CPI at 06:45 UTC and US PPI/retail sales/claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 86 · price 1.12113
Post-CPI drop fully reversed; HH/HL chain through Asia, testing prior high.
The dollar's fade into the Asia session carried EURUSD from the 1.1113 post-CPI low back through the whole US CPI drop, clipping the prior high at 1.1211 for a 1.1219 asia high. RSI(14) near 86 is stretched, and price is now retesting 1.1211 with the asia trendline and the 1.1192 range low underneath.
Support: 1.12111, 1.1192
Resistance: 1.12185, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1211 prior high would mark the push above it as a false break
Break of the asia trendline and the 1.1192 range low exposes the 38.2% cpi-low fib near 1.1178
Acceptance above the 1.1219 asia high puts the 1.1220 round number in play
French CPI at 06:45 UTC, then US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~11h), could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 85 · price 1.12113
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia, price retesting the pre-CPI high.
Asia session has fully reversed the hot-US-CPI drop from the 1.1113 low. It printed a session high at 1.1219 above the pre-CPI high at 1.1211, and price is now sitting back on that level with RSI(14) near 85. The 1.1192 consol low and the Asia trendline sit just beneath.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1192, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.12185
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1211 pre-cpi high keeps the breakout read intact. An M15 close back below the 1.1192 consol low would mark it a false break.
An M15 close above the 1.1219 session high extends the Asia leg's higher-high chain.
A break of the Asia trendline (~1.1207) exposes the 50% fib near 1.1166 and the 1.1150 asia low.
French CPI at 06:45 UTC and US PPI/retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
V-shaped recovery from the post-CPI low, now retesting the pre-CPI day high.
The hot US CPI print knocked the pair to 1.1113. The Asia session has since reversed the whole drop in a straight-line run off the 1.1150 pivot, and price is now pressing the pre-CPI day high at 1.1212 with RSI(14) near 85. The 1.1192 swing low is the nearest reference below.
Support: 1.1192, 1.1184, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1212
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1212 day high extends the recovery beyond pre-CPI levels
Break below the 1.1192 swing low and the 1.1184 pullback low would mark rejection at the day high
A slide back through the 50% fib near 1.1162 returns focus to the 1.1150 pivot
French CPI at 06:45 UTC, then US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
V-shaped recovery of the CPI drop; higher lows through Asia, now testing pre-CPI zone.
The hot US CPI flush to 1.1113 has fully reversed. Price reclaimed the 1.1150 pivot after the rollover and climbed through Asia hours back into the pre-CPI 1.1190s, which runs ahead of the digest's softer read. A wick rejection at the 1.1203 session high is holding for now, with RSI(14) near 79 and the CPI recovery still printing higher lows.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1168, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1211
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1203 session high exposes the 1.1211 prior high from the London session
Loss of the 1.1184 swing low breaks the Asian trendline and opens the 38.2% fib of the CPI recovery at 1.1168
Failure to hold the 1.1150 pivot returns focus to the 1.1113 CPI lows
French CPI at 06:45 UTC and the US PPI/retail sales bundle at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked EURUSD 85 pips to the 1.1113 CPI low. The pair then reclaimed the 1.1150 pivot late in the NY session and has since run ahead of the digest's bearish read. Thin early-Asia buying carried it back to the 1.1199 pre-CPI high, where it has stalled for three bars with RSI(14) near 84.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1150, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1199, 1.1211
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1199 pre-CPI high exposes the 1.1211 London high, this week's upside cap
Break of the rally trendline and the 1.1184 asia dip low opens a pullback toward the 1.1150 pivot
Thu 06:45 UTC French CPI and 12:30 UTC US PPI/retail sales could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Uptrend, stretched · RSI 86 · price 1.11963
HH/HL chain in Asia, full CPI retrace.
The Asia session extended the rebound from the 1.1113 post-CPI low into a near-full retrace of the hot US CPI drop. It reclaimed 1.1150 and set a session high at 1.1199, just under the 1.1200 round number. RSI(14) near 86 is stretched, and the pre-CPI low at 1.1188 and the pullback low at 1.1168 are the nearest structure beneath.
Support: 1.11875, 1.11684, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11985, 1.1200, 1.12111
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number brings the 1.1211 prior high into view
Break of the asia trendline and loss of the 1.1188 pre-cpi low would mark the rally stalling
Slip below the 1.1168 pullback low (near rally fib 38.2%) reopens the 1.1150 asia low
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the 1.1150 rollover low; post-CPI drop ~95% retraced.
The rally after the NY close cleared the 1.1157 prior high and has retraced about 95% of yesterday's hot-CPI drop. Price sits at 1.1194, just under the 1.1198 pre-CPI high, so the 1.1150 floor flagged in coverage is already back underneath. The early Asia session is pressing the rally line with RSI(14) near 86, an extreme reading for this timeframe.
Support: 1.11684, 1.11573, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11982, 1.1200, 1.12111
What it said to watch
Pre-CPI high 1.1198 and the 1.1200 round number: area to watch for rejection or break
A close above 1.1200 puts yesterday's Asian high at 1.1211 in play
Loss of the 1.1168 swing low and the rally line breaks the HH/HL chain; the 1.1157 prior high comes back into focus
Holding above the 1.1150 rollover low keeps the post-CPI recovery intact
Euro-area CPI at 06:45 UTC, then US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read