EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Thursday, 15 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:01 UTC
Downtrend stalling, rebound into range · RSI 54 · price 1.12145
Lower highs from 1.1495; range 1.1163-1.1276 since early Oct after a failed break lower.
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1495 took price into a 1.1163-1.1276 range in October. This week's push under the range low to a 1.1113 swing low failed quickly. The rebound to 1.1214 sits on the 61.8% retrace of the oct high to swing low leg and just under the 1.1241 range cap, which has now capped twice. Per the digest, the lift comes from falling US yields fading hot PPI, not from euro demand; EMA20 is still below EMA50 (~1.1200, near the round number), price is back above both, and ATR(14) near 30 pips is easing after the spike.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1163, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1241 range cap breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1276 oct high
Slip back below the 1.1200 round number and EMA50 puts the 1.1163 range low and 1.1113 swing low back in play
Fed Chair Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC and EZ inflation batch Fri 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A bullish EMA20/EMA50 cross would confirm the false break below the range low
18:34 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding inside range · RSI 54 · price 1.12141
Lower highs and lows from 1.1495; ranging 1.1151-1.1276 since early October.
The three-week sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 1.1495 has given way to a 1.1151-1.1276 range since early October. The CPI-driven drop briefly broke the range low and printed a swing low at 1.1113, then reversed as US yields slid. That left a false break and a rebound to the 1.1240 swing high, which stalled near the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1276-1.1113 leg. Price has reclaimed EMA20 and EMA50 with EMA20 still beneath EMA50, and ATR(14) near 29 pips has re-expanded after the spike.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1240 swing high opens the path to the 1.1276 range top and tests the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1188 pullback low and 1.1200 shifts focus back to the 1.1151 range low
Close back below the 1.1151 range low negates the false break and resumes the lower-low sequence through the 1.1113 swing low
Fed Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) is the dominant catalyst; a hawkish tilt reviving US yields could materially shift this read
Nagel (Fri 02:30 GMT) and Fri 09:00 GMT euro-area inflation prints add event risk to the range edges
Lower highs since mid-Sept; false break below range floor recovered.
The lower-high sequence from the 1.1495 mid-September top remains intact, with each rebound capped below the last, most recently the 1.1285 swing high and the 1.1241 lower high. The drop to the 1.1113 window low was a false break of the 1.1150 range floor, reversed within two bars as US yields slid despite the hot PPI. Price now sits between the ema20 near 1.1190 and the ema50 near 1.1207, near the 50% level of the Oct swing fib, with ATR(14) expanded to about 30 pips after the flush.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1150, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1207, 1.1241, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1241 lower high and lower-high line breaks the descending swing sequence and brings the 1.1285 swing high into play
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.1190, then a close back below the 1.1150 range floor, re-exposes the 1.1113 window low
Price holding below the ema50 at 1.1207 keeps the rebound a retracement within the downtrend, with the 61.8% Oct swing fib at 1.1219 just above
Fed Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) and Eurozone core HICP (Fri 09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 56 · price 1.1207
Lower highs from 1.1380; 1.1150–1.1276 range with false break.
The lower-high sequence from the 1.1380 sep high remains intact, and since early October price has based inside a 1.1150–1.1276 range, with the range top at 1.1276. Hot US CPI drove a false break below the 1.1151 prior low to a 1.1113 swing low, which was quickly reclaimed as Treasury yields faded. The rebound stalled at 1.1240, where the lower highs and the 50% fib of the 1.1380–1.1113 leg converge, and the hot PPI print has the pair back at the 1.1200 round number. Price sits on EMA50 with EMA20 still below it, and ATR(14) near 28 pips is expanded from the pre-CPI compression.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1276, 1.1380
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.1200 round number and EMA50 puts the 1.1151 prior low back in play
H4 close above 1.1240 breaks the lower highs trendline and opens the 1.1276 range top
Loss of the 1.1113 swing low would negate the false break and resume the downtrend
A move through 1.1276 would turn focus toward the 1.1380 sep high
Fed Chair Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read after the hot CPI and PPI prints
Lower highs since early-Oct; false break below 1.1150 floor reclaimed.
Lower highs have held since the early-Oct swing high at 1.1285. The range floor near 1.1150, tested four times, gave way to a 17-month swing low at 1.1113 after the hot US CPI print, then was reclaimed as Treasury yields slumped and Fed pushback trimmed October hike odds. The rebound pushed through the falling lower-high line and stalled at 1.1241, level with the prior lower high and just above the 61.8% retracement. Price is now sitting on the EMA50 with EMA20 still below it, and ATR(14) near 27 pips has expanded on the CPI swing.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1241 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1285 swing high
Return below the 1.1150 range floor turns the false break into a failed reclaim and re-exposes the 1.1113 swing low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT, plus Friday HICP and Warsh remarks, could materially shift this read
An EMA20 cross above EMA50 would confirm the bounce is reshaping swing structure
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1276; CPI low reclaimed.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1276 swing high. The hot US CPI print drove a false break below the 1.1150 old floor to the 1.1113 cpi low, but the USD-led rebound has since cleared the lower-high line and the 61.8% fib. Price is stalling just under the 1.1243 lower high and back above EMA20 and EMA50, while ATR(14) has expanded to ~27 pips.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1243, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1243 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.1276 swing high
Slip back below the 1.1200 psych level puts the 1.1150 old floor back in play
Break of the 1.1113 cpi low would resume the lower-low sequence
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; 1.1150 range floor briefly lost then reclaimed.
Lower highs and lower lows have run all window from the 1.1498 high. The hot US CPI print pushed price through the two-week 1.1150 range floor to the 1.1113 cpi low, but that break was reclaimed within two bars. The bounce has now retraced about 50% of the 1.1276–1.1113 leg. Price sits between a declining EMA20 and EMA50, which remain in bearish alignment, and the lower highs trendline near 1.1205 and the 1.1211 week high sit directly overhead. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 24 pips since CPI.
Support: 1.1150, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.12111, 1.12425
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.1150 range floor would cancel the false break and put the 1.1113 cpi low back in play
Close above the 1.1211 week high and the lower highs trendline breaks the descending sequence and opens the 1.1243 swing high
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI, retail sales and claims could materially shift this read
Fri euro-area core HICP and Fed Chair Warsh remarks are a second event-risk cluster for the pair