Lower high 1.1211 vs Monday 1.1217, lower low at 1.1113; retest of broken 1.1150.
Hot US CPI (3.7% y/y, core beat) hit at the NY open on Wednesday and drove the CPI leg from the 1.1211 wed high to a 1.1113 week low, breaking Monday's 1.1151 mon low. That leaves a lower high under Monday's 1.1217 and a lower low, a clean downtrend sequence since the week opened at 1.1184. The late-NY rebound has retraced just past the 38.2% level and is now pressing the 1.1150 area from above, capped just under the ema20 near 1.1161, with RSI(14) back in the low 40s from oversold.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1174, 1.1211
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.1151 mon low reopens the 1.1113 week low
Close above the fib 61.8 at 1.1174 and the ema20 would neutralise the post-CPI breakdown
A move through the 1.1211 wed high breaks the lower highs sequence
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims could materially shift this read
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC is a secondary risk during the London open
Lower highs since Friday; Monday low broken, retest from below.
The hot US CPI print (3.7% y/y) dropped EUR/USD nearly 100 pips into the NY session, from the 1.1211 pre-CPI high to a week low at 1.1113. That move broke the Monday low at 1.1151, which had floored Tuesday's bounce. The late-NY rebound has retraced about 45% of the CPI drop and sits at 1.1150–1.1162, where the former Monday low meets EMA(20) and the 50% fib of the CPI drop, with RSI(14) back to the high-30s from oversold. Price remains below the weekly open at 1.1184, and the lower-highs trendline from Friday's 1.1243 peak still defines the sequence.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1162, 1.1184, 1.1211
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the ema20 / 50% fib at 1.1162 puts the weekly open at 1.1184 back in play
Failure to hold the Monday low at 1.1151 exposes the 1.1113 week low
A move through the 1.1211 pre-cpi high would break the lower-highs trendline
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims at Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday; 1.1151–1.1211 range broke lower, now retesting.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Friday's 1.1243 peak. The 1.1151–1.1211 range that framed Monday to Wednesday broke during NY hours after the hot US CPI beat (3.7% y/y, core 2.6%), with the CPI low at 1.1113. The late-NY rebound has retraced about 45% of the pre-CPI high-to-low drop on the fib. That puts price back at the prior lows near 1.1151, just under EMA(20) at 1.1162, while RSI(14) has recovered from sub-20 oversold to ~45 without reclaiming 50.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1162, 1.1174, 1.1211
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the prior lows at 1.1151 turns the retest into a rejection and reopens the 1.1113 CPI low
Break of the 1.1113 CPI low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
Sustained trade above EMA(20) at 1.1162 and the 61.8% fib at 1.1174 would point to a deeper retracement of the CPI drop
Reclaiming the 1.1211 pre-CPI high breaks this week's lower-highs structure
US PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; EU CPI at 06:45 UTC is a secondary risk
Lower highs since Monday; CPI range break, retest of 1.1151 from below.
The hot US CPI print in the first hour of NY broke Wednesday's 1.1188–1.1211 band and the Monday low at 1.1151, setting a week low at the 1.1113 cpi low as the dollar rallied broadly. Late-NY short-covering has lifted price back to the Monday low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop, while price stays below EMA(20) near 1.1163 and RSI(14) has climbed to ~44 from oversold. Lower highs from Monday's 1.1217 week high through Wednesday's 1.1211 remain intact.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1163, 1.1174, 1.1188
What it said to watch
Hourly closes holding above the 1.1151 monday low open EMA(20) at 1.1163 and the 61.8% fib at 1.1174; a recovery through the 1.1188 pre-cpi base would break the lower highs sequence
Rejection at the Monday low and a break under the 1.1113 cpi low would extend the downtrend toward the 1.1100 round number
Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims could materially shift this read; euro-area CPI at 06:45 UTC is secondary
Lower highs from Monday; 1.1151-1.1211 weekly range broken lower.
The week opened 1.1184 on a gap lower. Monday's 1.1217 high gave way to a London-NY selloff, and the 1.1151 low then held as support through Tuesday's bounce to 1.1211. The hot US CPI print at the NY open on Wednesday drove a 70-pip bar through that former support to a cpi low at 1.1113, the pair's lowest since May 2025. The late-NY bounce has stalled at a 1.1140 bounce high, well below EMA(20) near 1.1163, with RSI(14) in oversold territory.
Support: 1.11128, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11404, 1.11511, 1.1163
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1151 former support would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1113 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
EMA(20) near 1.1163 and the lower highs line as the first test of any oversold rebound
Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims could materially shift this read; EU CPI at 06:45 UTC is secondary
Range break below Monday low, tight base above 1.1113.
The week's 1.1151–1.1217 range gave way at the NY open as the hot US CPI print, with core at 0.3% m/m against 0.2% forecast, dropped EURUSD 70 pips in one bar, through the monday low to a cpi low at 1.1113. That move capped a sequence of lower highs from Monday's 1.1217 peak to the wed high at 1.1211. Since the flush, price has compressed in a 15-pip band well below EMA(20) near 1.1165, with RSI(14) oversold around 25 and no recovery toward the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop at 1.1150.
Support: 1.11128, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11511, 1.1165, 1.12111
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the monday low at 1.1151 (also the 38.2% fib) would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the cpi low at 1.1113 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
Reclaim of ema20 near 1.1165 and the 61.8% fib at 1.1174 needed to neutralise the post-CPI downtrend
Lower-highs trendline from Monday's 1.1217 peak through the wed high at 1.1211 caps any rebound attempt
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC tonight and US Retail Sales/PPI Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
EZ CPI (EU norm) Thu 06:45 UTC: an upside print may prompt a retest of 1.1150
Range break below Monday low after lower high; stalling near week low.
EUR/USD broke out of this week's 1.1151–1.1217 range in the NY session after the hot US CPI print. A single bar shed about 70 pips, and the follow-through set a new week low at 1.1113. Before the release, London had already faded price from a day high at 1.1211, a lower high against Monday's 1.1217 top along the lower-highs trendline, down to a pre-cpi low near 1.1188. RSI(14) near 20 is oversold, price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and the last three bars are compressing just above the week low.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1151, 1.1188, 1.1211
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1151 monday low, which sits close to the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg, would put price back inside the broken range
Failure to hold the 1.1113 week low exposes the 1.1100 round number
A recapture of the 1.1188 pre-cpi low and the 1.1211 day high would break the lower-highs trendline and negate the range break
The Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT today and Thursday's 12:30 GMT US retail sales/PPI could materially shift this read
EZ CPI (EU norm) at 06:45 UTC tomorrow is a second-tier EUR risk around the week low
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower after CPI · RSI 30 · price 1.11202
Week-long range broken to the downside, lower lows.
From the 1.1184 weekly open, EUR/USD rotated in a 1.1151–1.1217 range through Wednesday's London session. Monday's NY selloff held the monday low, and lower highs formed from the week high into Wednesday's Asia session. The hot US CPI print (3.7% y/y, core 0.3% m/m) at the NY open broke the range floor in a single 71-pip bar, and the CPI drop extended to a 1.1114 cpi low, the lowest level in the window. Price now sits roughly 30 pips below the broken monday low with both EMAs overhead and RSI(14) near 30. The post-CPI bounce has stalled near 1.1129, well inside the lower part of the CPI drop fib.
Support: 1.1114, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1151, 1.1184, 1.1217
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1151 monday low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1114 cpi low opens the 1.1100 round number
Schnabel at 16:15 UTC today; hawkish pushback could trigger a short-covering bounce from oversold levels
Recovery above the 1.1184 weekly open would negate the lower-highs sequence; week high at 1.1217 caps the range
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI and Retail Sales could materially shift this read
The week opened on a gap down at 1.1184, and Monday's London-NY slide set a 1.1151 monday low. The Tuesday–Wednesday rebound then stalled at the 1.1211 wed high, a lower high under Monday's 1.1217. The hotter-than-expected US CPI print early in the NY session broke that range in a 71-pip bar, and the CPI leg extended to a 1.1114 cpi low, the lowest of the window. Price now sits well below the H1 ema20 near 1.1178 with RSI(14) around 19, deeply oversold, while the former 1.1151 floor overhead lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg.
Support: 1.11139, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11511, 1.1178, 1.12111
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1151 monday low would turn the CPI break into a false break and put the range back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1114 cpi low exposes the 1.1100 round number
A rebound that stalls at the ema20 near 1.1178 keeps the lower highs sequence from the wed high intact
ECB's Schnabel at 16:15 UTC today, then Thursday's US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Range break below Monday low; Wednesday high stalled under Monday high.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) produced a ~70-pip H1 bar in the first hour of NY that cut through Monday's low at 1.1151, ending the 1.1151–1.1217 range held since the weekly open and printing a fresh week low at 1.1124. Wednesday's Asia-session push to the 1.1211 wed high had already stalled below Monday's 1.1217, leaving a lower-highs line in place. Price now sits roughly 60 pips under the EMA(20) near 1.1187 with RSI(14) near 18, deeply oversold after a single-bar expansion.
Support: 1.1124, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1151, 1.1187, 1.1211
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1151 monday low, close to the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg at 1.1157, would mark the move as a false break
Failure to reclaim 1.1151 keeps the 1.1124 week low and the 1.1100 round number in focus
A recovery to the ema20 near 1.1187, also the pre-CPI low, would retest the breakdown area
Fed's Bowman (14:55 UTC), ECB's Schnabel (16:15 UTC) and the Beige Book (18:00 UTC) could shift this read; US PPI and retail sales follow Thursday at 12:30 UTC
Higher lows from 1.1151, lower highs since last week's 1.1243.
Monday's sell-off from the 1.1217 week high to the 1.1151 week low has been retraced in steps, with a 1.1175 higher low on Tuesday and a 1.1188 Wednesday low today. The London-open push to the 1.1211 Wednesday high was rejected, though. Price has slipped back to the 61.8% fib near 1.1192, just under EMA(20) at about 1.1196, sitting on EMA(50) and back below the 1.1201 prior close, with RSI(14) at 46 after rolling over from the low 60s. The hot US core CPI (0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y) landed in the current hour and is not yet visible in the closed bars, leaving the higher-lows trendline near 1.1189 as the immediate test.
Support: 1.11875, 1.11748, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.12015, 1.12111, 1.12167
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1188 Wednesday low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the recovery structure, exposing the 1.1175 higher low
Sustained hot-CPI USD follow-through in the NY session could bring a retest of the 1.1151 week low
Reclaim of the 1.1201 prior close and a close above the 1.1211 Wednesday high and the lower-highs line puts the 1.1217 week high in focus
Fed's Bowman (14:55 GMT) and the Beige Book (18:00 GMT) today, then US PPI and retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact; rebound off week low retracing.
Monday's London-NY drop from the 1.1217 week high to the 1.1151 week low extended the lower-highs sequence from last Thursday's 1.1243. Tuesday's rebound on a softer USD after Williams' dovish remarks peaked at the 1.1211 rebound high in today's Asia session, beneath the lower-highs line. London has since faded back through the ema20 to the 38.2% fib of the rebound near 1.1188 on pre-CPI caution, with RSI(14) slipping to the low 40s and price now under both EMAs.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1175, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1211, 1.1217
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; core MoM vs the 0.2% forecast is the swing factor
H1 close below the fib 38.2 at 1.1188 exposes the Tue low at 1.1175, then the 1.1151 week low
Recovery above the ema20 and the 1.1211 rebound high would break the lower-highs line, with the 1.1217 week high next
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT add follow-through risk after CPI
10:02 UTC
Recovery from week low, stalling below week high · RSI 48 · price 1.11945
Higher lows since Tuesday; lower high at 1.1211 vs 1.1217, recovery line broken.
Monday's London-NY selloff ran from the 1.1217 week high to the 1.1151 week low as USD hit 18-month highs. Tuesday then retraced about 90% of that move on a softer dollar, building higher lows into a 1.1211 day high in Asia, a lower high against Monday's peak. The London open rejected that high and pulled price back to the 1.1194 day low, below the recovery line and EMA(20) near 1.1198 but still on the 61.8% fib of Monday's selloff (1.1192), with RSI(14) easing to ~48.
Support: 1.1194, 1.11842, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.12111, 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT is the main risk to this read. A hot core print puts the 1.1184 weekly open and the 1.1151 week low back in focus. A soft print brings the 1.1211 day high and the 1.1217 week high back into play.
An H1 close below the 1.1184 weekly open (also the 50% fib) ends Tuesday's higher-low sequence.
An H1 close above the 1.1217 week high clears the lower high and opens the path to the 1.1243 prior high from last Friday.
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and ECB's Schnabel at 16:15 UTC are secondary event risk after CPI.
Higher lows from Monday's 1.1151 low; rising trendline broken at London open.
The week opened at 1.1184 (weekly open). Price spiked to the 1.1217 week high in Monday's Asia session, then sold off through London and NY to the 1.1151 week low. Tuesday's recovery printed a series of higher lows as the USD softened on easing yields and Williams' remarks. Supply capped Wednesday's Asian push at the 1.1211 Wed high, just under the week high and the 1.1220 area. A London-open drop has since taken price back below EMA(20) to 1.1198, just above the 1.1194 tue ny low.
Support: 1.1194, 1.11842, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.12111, 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT is the dominant catalyst for this read.
An H1 close above the 1.1217 week high reopens 1.1220 and the 1.1243 prior high.
Failure to hold the 1.1194 tue ny low and the 1.1184 weekly open exposes the 61.8% recovery fib near 1.1174.
A break of the 1.1151 week low would end the higher-lows sequence.
The broken higher-lows trendline now sits overhead; a reclaim would restore the recovery structure.
Monday's London and NY sessions drove the pair from the 1.1217 Monday high to the 1.1151 week low as the USD printed an 18-month high. Since then the USD correction has lifted price about 60 pips on a run of higher lows. Tuesday's NY push to 1.1204 was faded, but today's Asia session extended to the 1.1211 day high. Price now sits just above EMA(20) near 1.1199 and back above the 1.1184 weekly open. RSI(14) is cooling to the high 50s and ranges have compressed into CPI.
Support: 1.1199, 1.1184, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1217, 1.1243
What it said to watch
US Sep CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Lagarde at 08:30 UTC and Bowman at 09:40 GMT come first
H1 close above the 1.1211 day high and 1.1217 Monday high clears the 1.1220 cap and opens the path to the 1.1243 prior-week high
Break of the higher-lows trendline and EMA(20) near 1.1199 exposes the weekly open at 1.1184, inside the 38.2–50% recovery fib zone
Failure to hold the 1.1151 week low would mark a lower low and resume the month-long downtrend
Higher lows since Monday NY low; rising trendline under test.
EUR/USD has retraced most of Monday's slide to the 1.1151 week low, which came after a gap-down open and a heavy NY-session leg. Tuesday printed a steady run of higher lows as the USD corrected on Williams' 'no 2027 hike' remark, and Asia extended the move to the 1.1211 asia high, just shy of the 1.1217 monday high near the 1.1220 marker. The first London bars are slipping under the rising trendline but still hold the 1.1202 prior close, with RSI(14) near 64 and price above both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.12015, 1.1194, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.12108, 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
US Sept CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lagarde at 08:30 UTC is event risk inside the London session
H1 close below the 1.1194 asia low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.1188
H1 close above the 1.1217 monday high opens the path toward the 1.1242 prior wk hi
Failure to reclaim the rising trendline keeps the recovery in a stall below the asia high
02:01 UTC
Recovery uptrend within a broader decline, pressing resistance · RSI 62 · price 1.12028
Higher lows since Monday's low; second test of Tuesday's 1.1204 high.
The week opened with a gap lower to the 1.1184 weekly open. Monday's London-into-NY selloff then drove price to the 1.1151 week low, the 17-month low. Since Tuesday's Asia session the pair has printed steady higher lows on a softer USD after Williams' comments, filling Friday's gap and recovering about 78.6% of the decline from the 1.1217 week high. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.1195 with RSI(14) around 62, and is now in a second test of the Tuesday NY high at 1.1204, which rejected price on the first attempt.
Support: 1.1195, 1.1184, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1217, 1.1243
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1204 tue high opens the 1.1217 week high and the 1.1220 area, with Friday's 1.1243 prior high beyond
A break of the higher-lows trendline and a close below the EMA(20) near 1.1195 would expose the 1.1184 weekly open
Failure to hold the weekly open puts the 1.1151 week low back in focus
Lagarde at 08:30 UTC and US Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday; Tuesday higher lows into a 78.6% retrace.
Monday's London-into-NY selloff from the 1.1217 monday high to the 1.1151 week low has been almost fully retraced. Tuesday's USD-led bounce, on lower oil and Williams' remarks, was rejected twice at the 1.1204 tuesday high, near the 78.6% level of the monday drop fib. Price holds above the ema20 (~1.1193) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 60, compressing in a tight Asian range on the higher-low line, while the lower-high sequence since Friday (1.1243, 1.1217, 1.1204) keeps the broader downtrend intact.
Support: 1.1193, 1.1184, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1217
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1204 tuesday high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1217 monday high and the 1.1220 area
Loss of the higher-low line and ema20 near 1.1193 puts the 1.1184 week open, the 50% level of the monday drop fib, back in play
Lagarde at 02:10 and 08:30 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC today (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
A break of the 1.1151 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
00:01 UTC
Rebound from week low, stalling under 1.1204 · RSI 59 · price 1.11976
Monday drop ~80% retraced; higher lows since Tuesday Asia, capped at the Tue high.
Monday's London-NY selloff ran from the 1.1217 week high to a 17-month low at 1.1151. Tuesday retraced about 80% of that drop as DXY slipped toward 102.20 and US yields and oil eased. The Tue high at 1.1204 has rejected two NY-session pushes. Price is now holding in a tight range above EMA(20) near 1.1190, with RSI(14) near 59 and higher lows stacked since the Asian session.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11845, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1204 Tue high puts the 1.1217 week high in play, and above that the 1.1243 prior wk hi
Loss of EMA(20) and the 1.1185 week open breaks the Tuesday higher-lows line and reopens the 1.1151 week low
Lagarde speaks at 02:10 and 08:30 UTC; a dovish or stagflation-focused tone could undercut the rebound
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; a hot core print points back toward the week low