Higher-low structure carried price to a fresh ytd high at 0.8152 before a sharp rejection dragged it back below the 0.8130 prior-high shelf, the leg lower coinciding with the soft US CPI miss that undercut the dollar. Price is now pinned around the 0.8100 pivot with ATR(14) expanding on the drop. The break above 0.8130 that failed to hold reads as a false break, leaving the 0.8060 recent low as the next reference.
Support: 0.8060, 0.8010
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8150
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 0.8130 would reinstate the push toward the 0.8150 ytd high
Failure to hold 0.8060 opens the path to the 0.8010 prior low
Wed PPI (12:30 UTC) and Warsh testimony (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Uptrend from the early-window 0.792 base remains intact on a higher-low structure, but the rally stalled at the 0.8152 YTD high. The soft US CPI print sparked a sharp rejection off that cap, dumping price to a 0.8060 swing low before demand stabilised it back near 0.8095. ATR(14) spiked on the CPI bar, so the pair is now consolidating between the 0.8060 swing low and the 0.8130 range cap.
Support: 0.80605, 0.80098
Resistance: 0.8130, 0.81516
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.8060 swing low confirms a lower low and breaks the rising-lows structure
Reclaim of the 0.8130 range cap reopens the 0.8152 ytd high
Wed PPI (12:30 UTC) and Warsh testimony (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
USDCHF pushed to a fresh YTD high at 0.8152 before a soft US CPI print triggered a sharp reversal, dumping price back below the 0.8100 pivot in a single bar and undercutting the recent rising-low sequence. ATR(14) has expanded markedly on the reversal, and price now sits mid-range after recovering off the 0.80605 swing low. The break under 0.8100 marks the first structural crack in the multi-day advance.
Support: 0.80605, 0.8010
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.81516
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 0.8100 pivot would negate the reversal read
Failure to hold 0.80605 swing low opens the path to 0.80100
US PPI tomorrow 12:30 GMT could revive the hawkish USD trade
Price ran to a fresh YTD high at 0.81516 before a two-bar collapse to 0.80605 as the soft US CPI print undercut the hawkish-Fed bid that had powered the advance. The rally structure is stalling: price closed back below the 0.81050 pivot and under EMA20, though it still holds above EMA50 and the 0.80605 swing low. Multi-day range edges at 0.81516 and 0.80098 now bracket the tape.
Support: 0.80605, 0.80098
Resistance: 0.8105, 0.81516
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.80605 confirms a lower-low and reopens 0.80098
Reclaim of the 0.81050 pivot puts the 0.81516 high back in play
US PPI tomorrow 12:30 GMT could revive the hawkish trade and shift this read
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 55 · price 0.81164
Higher highs / higher lows, near range top.
Uptrend intact with higher highs and higher lows since the early-month base; the break above the 0.8100 pivot extended to a fresh YTD high at 0.81516 before this pullback to 0.8116. USD held firm into June CPI on hawkish-Fed repricing while SNB intervention keeps capping any franc rebound. ATR has expanded on the recent leg up, and price is now digesting below the highs.
Support: 0.8100
Resistance: 0.81516, 0.8170
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 0.8100 pivot negates the breakout read
Close above 0.81516 ytd high opens the path toward 0.8170
US CPI reaction and Warsh testimony could materially shift this read
USDCHF pushed to fresh YTD highs at 0.8152 on the hawkish-Fed repricing before rejecting and fading four straight bars into 0.8116. Higher-low structure off the 0.8010 base remains intact and price holds above both EMAs, but the failure to hold 0.8150 leaves the market probing back toward the 0.8100 pivot. ATR is steady rather than expanding, consistent with a pullback inside the broader uptrend.
Support: 0.8100, 0.8030, 0.80098
Resistance: 0.81516, 0.8138
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.8150 ytd high reopens the 0.8170 area
Loss of the 0.8100 pivot exposes the 0.8030 higher low
US CPI reaction and Warsh testimony could materially shift this read
USDCHF has cleared the 0.8100/0.8126 zone that produced repeated false breaks over the past fortnight, printing a fresh three-week high near 0.8152 before easing to 0.81347. Higher-low structure is intact and both EMAs sit below price, with SNB CHF-selling flagged in the digest keeping upside the path of least resistance. ATR(14) is expanding as the leg extends.
Support: 0.8126, 0.8100, 0.8050
Resistance: 0.8152, 0.8200
What it said to watch
US June CPI at 12:30 UTC is the key driver for the next H4 bars — a hot print could extend the break, a soft print risks a pullback into the 0.8126 prior high
Loss of the 0.8100 false-break zone would negate the breakout read
A sustained hold above 0.8152 recent high opens the path toward 0.8200 psych
USDCHF is in a clean uptrend, printing higher lows since the 0.801 dip and clearing the 0.8100/0.8126 false-break zone that capped price repeatedly earlier in the window. Monday's push extended to a fresh two-week high at 0.81516 before easing to 0.8135, with SNB Franc-selling keeping the path of least resistance higher. ATR is steady rather than compressing, consistent with a trending phase rather than a coiled range.
Support: 0.8102, 0.8010, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.81516, 0.8126
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 hold above the 0.8126 false-break zone confirms CHF weakness has legs
US CPI at 12:30 UTC and Warsh testimony at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 0.8100 reopens the 0.8000 pivot
05:03 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout · RSI 63 · price 0.81356
Higher highs, new 3wk high.
USDCHF cleared the 0.8140 area and printed a fresh three-week high at 0.81516, with a firm Dollar and SNB Franc-selling underpinning the move. Structure is a clean sequence of higher lows off the 0.80098 base, now resolving higher, and EMA20 sits above EMA50 in bullish alignment. ATR(14) is modest, so the leg is orderly rather than climactic.
Support: 0.8102, 0.8069, 0.80098
Resistance: 0.81516
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Sustained trade above 0.81516 opens further upside
H4 close back below the 0.8100 pivot negates the breakout
USDCHF cleared the 0.8100 pivot and the multi-day 0.803–0.812 range, printing higher highs into 0.81516 as a firm, hawkish-leaning Dollar and SNB Franc selling weigh on CHF. The 0.8100 pivot has flipped to support after repeated earlier rejections, and price now sits above rising EMA20/EMA50. Momentum is expanding rather than compressing, keeping the recent high in focus.
Support: 0.8100, 0.80465, 0.80098
Resistance: 0.81516, 0.8139
What it said to watch
US CPI could materially shift this read on the Dollar side
A sustained close back below 0.8100 pivot would negate the breakout
Failure to hold above 0.8139 prior high stalls the higher-high sequence
01:03 UTC
Uptrend resuming, momentum building · RSI 70 · price 0.81474
Range break higher, higher lows intact.
USDCHF broke above the 0.8100 breakout level — twice rejected earlier in the window — extending to a swing high at 0.8149 as the dollar firmed into June CPI. Higher-low structure since the 0.8010 swing low is intact after price recovered through the 0.8050 range mid, and ATR(14) is expanding as the range breaks. Psychological 0.8180 is the next reference above.
Support: 0.8100, 0.8050, 0.8010
Resistance: 0.81492, 0.8180
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 0.8100 breakout level negates the range break
US CPI 12:30 UTC and Warsh testimony 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Sustained move above 0.8149 swing high opens the path toward 0.8180 psych
Price broke above the 0.8100 pivot that repeatedly rejected it through the window, printing a 0.8149 high as USD stays firm into June CPI. Higher-low structure has held since the 0.8010 range low, and ATR(14) is expanding as the move extends. The prior swing high at 0.81378 is the next overhead level, forming a potential double-top zone if buyers stall.
Support: 0.8100, 0.80465, 0.80098
Resistance: 0.81378, 0.8150
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 0.8100 negates the breakout and returns price to the prior range
US CPI at 12:30 UTC and Warsh testimony could materially reprice USD and this read
Rejection at 0.81378 prior high would confirm a double-top cap