USDCHF stalled at the YTD high near 0.81516 and has rolled over, printing a lower high and slipping back below the well-worn 0.8100 pivot that saw repeated false breakouts. The soft US CPI/PPI run has undercut the dollar, though SNB franc-selling keeps CHF gains shallow — price now probes the recent low at 0.80338 with the wider 0.80098 swing low beneath. ATR is easing, consistent with a corrective drift rather than an impulsive break.
Support: 0.80338, 0.80098, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.81145, 0.81516
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.80098 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of the 0.8100 pivot negates the pullback and reopens 0.81516
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Rolling over, lower highs · RSI 41 · price 0.80512
Broad range, capped below 0.8150.
USDCHF rejected the 0.8150 YTD high and has carved lower highs since, now pressing the lower half of a multi-week 0.8000-0.8150 range after the soft US CPI/PPI capped the dollar. Price sits below both EMAs with the 0.8100 pivot repeatedly acting as a cap; SNB franc-selling keeps the broader range floored near 0.8000. ATR(14) is mid-regime, consistent with range rather than trend extension.
Support: 0.80338, 0.80098, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.81145, 0.81516
What it said to watch
Close below 0.80300 opens the range low at 0.80098 then 0.8000
Sustained close above 0.8100 pivot negates the lower-high structure toward 0.81145
US Retail Sales Thu 16 Jul 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Rolling over from YTD high · RSI 43 · price 0.80659
Broad range, lower highs after 0.8150 top.
USDCHF has rolled over from the 0.8150 YTD high, printing lower highs and slipping back below both the EMA20 and EMA50 as price probes the lower half of the multi-week 0.8000-0.8150 range. The 0.8100 pivot has produced repeated false breaks and is again capping, while soft US CPI/PPI undercut the dollar and Swiss PPI deflation plus SNB franc-selling keep any CHF upside shallow. ATR(14) is steady, with price sitting between the 0.618 and 0.786 retracement of the last impulse up.
Support: 0.80605, 0.80098, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.81516
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.80605 confirms a lower-low, opening 0.8000
Sustained close above 0.8100 pivot needed to re-expose the 0.8150 ytd high
Thursday US Retail Sales could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 43 · price 0.80659
Lower high off YTD peak, testing fib retrace.
USDCHF ran to the YTD high near 0.8150 before being rejected, and price has since rolled back to 0.8066, holding around the 61.8% fib of the 0.8010-0.8150 impulse. The soft US CPI/PPI misses capped the dollar even as CHF stays heavy on SNB selling, leaving the pair below both EMA20 and EMA50. The 0.8100 pivot has produced repeated false breakouts and now caps rebounds.
Support: 0.8060, 0.8010, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.8115, 0.81516
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.8060 swing low opens the path to 0.8010 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.8100 pivot needed to re-expose the 0.8150 ytd high
Thursday US Retail Sales could materially shift this read
USDCHF ran to a fresh YTD-high near 0.8152 before the soft US CPI/PPI misses knocked the dollar, driving a sharp reversal to 0.80631 and leaving a rejection at the highs. Price is now consolidating back above the 0.8100 pivot, a level that has produced repeated false breaks in the window. SNB CHF selling has kept the broader higher-high structure intact even as the dollar softens.
Support: 0.8100, 0.80631, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.81516
What it said to watch
A clean H4 close above 0.8100 sustains the recovery toward the 0.81516 swing high
Failure to hold 0.80631 swing low exposes the 0.8000 psych level
Warsh testimony / Fed-path repricing today could materially shift the USD-side read
13:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling after pullback · RSI 52 · price 0.81087
Lower high off 0.8151, holding above 0.8063.
USDCHF rallied to a fresh YTD-high zone at 0.8152 before a sharp reversal to 0.8063, with soft US CPI and PPI misses undercutting the dollar. Price is now consolidating just above the 0.8100 pivot, which has seen repeated false breaks through the window. ATR sits mid-range, keeping the pair range-bound rather than trending after the pullback.
Support: 0.8063, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.8152
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.8100 pivot validates a push toward the 0.8152 ytd high
Loss of 0.8063 swing low exposes the 0.8000 psych level
Warsh testimony / Beige Book today could reprice the USD side and shift this read
Consolidating below 0.8100 after rejection at YTD-high zone.
Broader higher-high structure since the early-month 0.79 base carried price into the YTD-high zone near 0.8152, where it was rejected and slid to a 0.8063 swing low before stabilising. Price is now consolidating just under the 0.8100 pivot after USD softened on yesterday's soft US CPI, with SNB CHF-selling capping franc gains. ATR is moderate and the pair is coiling around EMA20 as it holds the rising support off the month's lows.
Support: 0.80631, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.81516, 0.8171
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.8100 validates a retest of the 0.8152 ytd high and 0.8171 prior high
Loss of the 0.8063 swing low exposes the 0.8000 psych level
US PPI and Warsh testimony today could re-arm or unwind the USD move
Fresh high rejected, consolidating on rising lows.
Price tagged a fresh high at 0.8152 before a sharp rejection dumped it back under the well-worn 0.8100 pivot, where breakouts have repeatedly failed. It is now consolidating around 0.809 on an intact rising-low structure. Soft US CPI kept the dollar offered this week, but SNB intervention capping franc strength has held the pair in-range rather than trending.
Support: 0.80631, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.81516
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.8100 validates the 0.8152/0.8171 resistance zone
Loss of 0.80631 breaks the rising-low structure and exposes 0.8000
US PPI at 12:30 UTC could re-arm USD and shift this read
05:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling after rejection at highs · RSI 46 · price 0.80907
Rejected YTD high, pulled back into range.
Price pushed to a fresh YTD high at 0.81516 before a sharp rejection dragged it back below the 0.8100 pivot as the soft US CPI print trimmed hawkish-Fed bets. The advance has stalled and the pair is consolidating near 0.809, with ATR(14) expanding on the reversal. The move sits back inside the multi-week range, with the swing low at 0.8060 and the 0.8000 round number as the levels below.
Support: 0.80605, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.81516
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.8100 pivot reasserts the upside path toward the 0.81516 ytd high
Failure to hold 0.8060 swing low opens the 0.8000 round number
Core PPI at 12:30 GMT and Warsh testimony at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling after rejection · RSI 46 · price 0.80907
Pullback from range high, consolidating below 0.8100.
Higher-low structure carried price from the 0.7910 base to a 0.8152 ytd high before a sharp rejection candle — coinciding with the soft US June CPI that knocked USD off its highs — dragged the pair back under the 0.8100 pivot. Price is now consolidating around 0.8090 with ATR expanding on the drop, holding above the 0.8060 swing low. EMA50 remains below price while EMA20 has been reclaimed to the downside.
Support: 0.8060, 0.80098, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8115, 0.81516
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 0.8100 pivot re-exposes the 0.81516 ytd high
Loss of the 0.8060 swing low opens the path toward the 0.80098 range low
US PPI and Warsh testimony could materially shift the USD side of this read
Price stretched to a YTD high near 0.8152 before rejecting sharply as soft US June CPI unwound Fed-hike bets, shedding ~90 pips to the 0.8063 swing low. It now consolidates around 0.809, capped by the 0.8100 pivot, with ATR(14) expanding on the CPI-driven flush. The broader three-week frame remains a 0.8000–0.8150 range built on higher lows.
Support: 0.8063, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.8150
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 0.8100 pivot reopens the 0.8150 ytd high
Failure to hold 0.8063 swing low exposes 0.8000 round number
US PPI (12:30 UTC) and Warsh testimony (14:00 UTC) could shift this read
Higher highs into YTD high, sharp reversal off 0.8150.
Multi-week uptrend carried USDCHF from the sub-0.7920 base to a YTD high at 0.8150, but the pair rejected sharply there and shed roughly 90 pips into 0.8063 as the soft US June CPI unwound hawkish-Fed pricing. Price has since stabilised near 0.809, holding above the 0.8100-area pivot only intermittently, with ATR(14) expanding on the reversal candle. Structure remains constructive above the rising-support line, but the failure at the YTD high leaves the recent high unconfirmed.
Support: 0.8063, 0.8100, 0.8010
Resistance: 0.8140, 0.8150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.8150 ytd high would resume the uptrend toward 0.8170
Failure to hold 0.8063 swing low opens the 0.8010 prior low
US PPI and Warsh testimony today are the main USD catalysts and could reset this read