An eight-bar advance to a 13-month high near 0.8205 rolled over hard, with a double-top rejection then a sharp two-bar slide back through the 0.8130 shelf that had capped and supported the prior range. The unwind follows a softer USD after the hawkish-hold FOMC and soft GDP/PCE prints, which trimmed the crowded CHF-short carry trade. Price now trades below both EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR expanding as the down-leg extends.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8130, 0.8205
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 0.8130 negates the breakdown
Failure to hold 0.8000 psych opens further downside
Swiss CPI Mon 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Uptrend reversed, momentum down · RSI 27 · price 0.8048
Broke below multi-week rising support.
An eight-day rally to 13-month highs near 0.8205 stalled at a double top before reversing hard; the FOMC hawkish hold gave way to soft US GDP/PCE, unwinding USD longs and sending the pair through its rising support in two large bearish bars to 0.8048. Price now sits well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI oversold near 27, testing the 0.8040 swing low. ATR has expanded on the breakdown, consistent with an impulsive move rather than compression.
Support: 0.8040, 0.8010, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8128, 0.8163, 0.8205
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.8040 exposes the 0.8010 prior low and 0.8000 psych level
H4 close back above the 0.8128 broken level would repair the breakdown
Swiss CPI Mon and US ECI Fri could materially shift this read
13-month high rejected at 0.8205, breaking down through range.
An eight-day rally to 13-month highs stalled at a double top near 0.8205 before an abrupt reversal, with USD softening after the hawkish Fed hold and soft PCE/GDP prints. The last two H4 bars sliced through prior support at 0.8130 to a 0.8039 low, snapping the higher-low structure and pushing price below both EMAs. ATR(14) has expanded sharply as the move accelerates.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8130, 0.8205
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.8039 confirms a lower-low toward the 0.8000 psych level
H4 close back above 0.8130 would negate the breakdown read
Swiss CPI Mon Aug 3 could materially shift this read
USDCHF climbed to 13-month highs near 0.8207 on the well-telegraphed SNB-on-hold story, but the level capped price three times and a sharp rejection has dragged it back below the EMA20 and EMA50. The 0.8205 area is now a clear triple-top ceiling, with buyers stepping back in above 0.8120 after the flush. Structure remains higher-lows since early month, but this is the first lower high of the advance.
Support: 0.8120, 0.8090, 0.8064
Resistance: 0.8164, 0.8205, 0.8200
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.82068 reasserts the uptrend and exposes 0.8250
Failure to hold 0.81200 confirms a deeper pullback toward 0.8090
US Core PCE / GDP now is the dollar's next directional trigger
Higher highs capped at 0.8205 double top; pullback underway.
USDCHF ran to 13-month highs at 0.8205 on entrenched Fed-SNB divergence but twice failed there, printing a double top and a sharp rejection back below the EMA20. The last bar sliced from 0.8163 to 0.8120, unwinding the recent impulse and threatening the run of higher lows. CHF has been a funding short into this move, so the pullback comes against a still-constructive multi-week backdrop.
Support: 0.8120, 0.8081
Resistance: 0.8175, 0.8205, 0.8215
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.8120 confirms a lower low and breaks the higher-low structure
Reclaim above 0.8205 double top needed to re-open the 0.8215 breakout
US Core PCE / GDP due now could materially shift this read
USDCHF held an uptrend into 13-month highs near 0.8205 on the SNB-hold-to-2027 divergence story, but the last H4 bar into that level printed a sharp rejection back to 0.8135 before recovering to 0.8171. Higher-low structure since early-month remains intact while price sits just under the EMA20, with the 0.8205 area repeatedly capping. ATR(14) is elevated after that outsized down-bar, marking an expansion phase rather than compression.
Support: 0.81325, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8205, 0.8250
What it said to watch
US GDP / core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h out) could materially shift the USD leg of this read
H4 close above 0.8205 swing high opens the path to 0.8250
Failure to hold 0.8135 swing low confirms a lower low and breaks the higher-low sequence
Higher highs into 0.8205 cap, sharp rejection then recovery.
USDCHF extended an eight-day advance to 13-month highs at 0.8205 before a sharp single-bar rejection swept the level and dropped to 0.81325, on the crowded short-CHF, SNB-Fed divergence theme. Buyers recovered price to 0.81713, keeping it above the rising EMA50 but back under EMA20 as that spike expanded ATR. Structure remains a broad uptrend with the 0.8205 ceiling the pivotal cap.
Support: 0.81325, 0.8070
Resistance: 0.8205, 0.8197
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.82050 opens the path toward 0.8250/0.8300
Failure to hold 0.81325 confirms a lower-low and deeper pullback
Swiss CPI (Aug 3) and US GDP/core PCE could materially shift this read
Higher highs into 1yr highs, sharp rejection off 0.8207.
H4 remains in a broader uptrend that carried USDCHF to fresh 1-year highs near 0.8207, fuelled by entrenched CHF funding-currency weakness on the SNB-hold-to-2027 story versus a firm USD. The latest session saw a sharp rejection off 0.8207 that flushed price to 0.81325 before a partial recovery to 0.8155, dragging price back below the EMA20 while the EMA50 still supports. ATR(14) has expanded on that flush, signalling a more volatile regime around the highs.
Support: 0.81325, 0.8080
Resistance: 0.82068, 0.8200
What it said to watch
US Core PCE / GDP cluster at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read
H4 close above 0.8207 reopens the path toward 0.8250
Failure to hold 0.81325 confirms a lower-low and breaks the rising support
Uptrend intact since the early-month low near 0.8034, with buyers stacking higher highs into a 13-month peak at 0.8207 before a sharp rejection dumped price to 0.8132 and a partial recovery to 0.8155. Repeated stalls at 0.8205-0.8207 mark a potential double top, while price now sits below EMA20 but above EMA50. CHF underperformance on the SNB-hold-to-2027 thesis versus the hawkish Fed hold underpins the broader structure.
Support: 0.8132, 0.8100, 0.8034
Resistance: 0.8205, 0.8215
What it said to watch
US Core PCE/GDP cluster at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Close back above 0.8205 re-opens the double top and 0.8215 pivot
Failure to hold 0.8132 swing low confirms a lower-low
USDCHF ran to 13-month highs near 0.8205 as the SNB-on-hold-to-2027 story kept the franc pinned in its funding role, but the level capped twice and the last bar sold off sharply to 0.8134, dropping price back below the EMA20 and EMA50. The double-top rejection and ATR(14) expansion mark a shift from the steady grind higher into a corrective leg. Broader higher-low structure off the 0.8034 base is still intact until 0.8132 gives way.
Support: 0.8132, 0.8080, 0.8046
Resistance: 0.8205, 0.8215, 0.8250
What it said to watch
Thu 12:30 GMT Core PCE/GDP cluster could materially shift this read
H4 close below 0.8132 confirms a lower-low and deeper pullback
Price built higher highs through the month toward 0.8205 but was capped twice near 0.82050, forming a double top before a sharp reversal on the last bar back to 0.8134. The drop followed the Fed's in-line hold, which unwound stretched USD longs and pushed price back below both EMA20 and EMA50. The multi-day uptrend structure is intact only above the 0.8132 swing low.
Support: 0.8132, 0.8080
Resistance: 0.8163, 0.8205
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 0.8163 EMA20 would re-open the 0.8205 top
Failure to hold 0.8132 swing low confirms a lower-low
Thu 12:30 GMT Core PCE / GDP cluster could materially shift this read